Kupchan: Territorial Switch Issue Must Be on negotiating Table

In an interview for the Balkan Radio Service Free Europe, Kupchan has said the exchange of territories would support him for pragmatic reasons.

“I believe that the issue of exchange of territories should be on the negotiating table, especially if it would offer an opportunity for normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, even though in a way it would pose a problem for the region, as opportunities for border lines to ethnic grounds would be recreated, but at least it is an opportunity to overcome this blocking situation. This would then require the support of the population in Kosovo and Serbia, it is now seen that there is no mood for such a thing, especially on the side of Kosovo. But I think Europeans and the United States should continue to try to push ahead with Pristina and Belgrade to continue the talks, because there must be normalisation and Kosovo, which is de facto independent, should become de jure independent to have long-term peace in the Balkans”, Kupchan has said.

According to him months ago, the mood to negotiate between Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vuciq, has been different, but dialogue is now on a dead end even because of the 100 per cent fee that the Prime Minister's Government in Kosovo's resignation has placed on imports from Serbia.

...if there were any long-term agreements between Kosovo and Serbia due to the exchange of territories, I would support it for pragmatic reasons.

“has been a time when talks between President Vuciq and President Thaci have shown signs of progress, especially in the matter of exchange of territories, where some parts north of Kosovo would transfer Serbia and part of the Presevo Valley would be transferred to Kosovo. But that seems to have died because of objections from Prime Minister Haradinaj, a part due to objections from Germany and other European parties, and now we are in a situation where there is a deadlock, mainly because of the tariffs Kosovo has set.

Asked whether any eventual solution to the differences between Kosovo and Serbia, which would include exchanges of territories, would constitute presensions in other Balkan countries, Kupchan has responded this way:

The territorial exchange issue is very controversial, and most analysts for the Balkans believe it must be removed from the table. I think it should be there because I see no exchange of more politically or morally intangible territories than the partition of Kosovo from Serbia, which has been the re-creating of borders along ethnic lines. So if there were any long-term agreements between Kosovo and Serbia due to the exchange of territories, I would support it for pragmatic reasons.

But, I also think it is very difficult for Kosovo to move forward and function as a democratic state when there is a part of the territory that does not want to belong to the state. Kosovo's north still has strong ties with Serbia, the majority of Serbs living there believe they should not live within Kosovo, so it is a difficult matter”.

But would there be danger of spreading this idea?

Kupchan: I think maybe so. I think there will be individuals, including themselves (right of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad) Dodik, which means that if Kosovo's north can be cut off from Kosovo, then why can't Republika Srpska secede from Bosnia? But I still believe that the positive side of normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia would constitute reasoning, even though there is the possibility of creating unrest in Bosnia and possibly even in northern Macedonia, where there could be an increase of tensions between Macedonians and Albanians in exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia.

In one part of the interview, however, he puts it this way:

If the involvement of Kosovo's north with Serbia influences that they (Serbs) have the sense of returning the state, or enough to push them to recognise Kosovo as a state, then I say this should happen. Because this is a step further towards peace and stability in the Balkan region.

What is US policy on Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?

Kupchan has indicated during the interview that he believes Balkan issues are not the priority of American President Donald Trump's administration and that the US does not have a clear policy on Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

The Trump administration does not consider Balkan issues a priority.

I don't think there's a clear position of American government. I have seen some statements by the National Security Council, which has suggested that if the parties, like Kosovo and Serbia, are willing to exchange territories, then the United States would support this agreement. I have found that even former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Wes Mitchell has supported any eventual exchange of territories if the parties agree, but on the other hand there are many American diplomats who oppose this idea. Honestly, I think it's hard to say what policy the United States has at this point, although I think if the tariffs are removed and the dialogue between Thaci and Vuciqi resumes, then maybe the U.S. may be more directly involved in dialogue and try to foster any agreements. The fact that John Bolton at some point has shown eventual support for the exchange of territories has shown that he can personally be included if the circumstances require”.

Kupchan has also said that in an ideal situation there would have to be a more energetic diplomacy both American and European, when Kosovo and Serbia are in question. Yet, he is not very optimistic.

I suspect that the United States will become more involved because in general the president (American Donald) Trump aims to reduce commitments rather than increase them. The Trump administration does not consider Balkan issues a priority. It is focused more on how to leave Syria and Afghanistan, ahead of elections in 2020. So I doubt you'll see a Trump team involved directly and take a leading role in this case, because I see they have no priority. So the ball is still on the side of the European Union, a new commissioner will be on duty by the end of the year, Europe is still focused on Brex, with immigration issues, so even Europe may not have the energy and capacity it needs to deal with this matter”, he added.

How does the story of Kosovo-Serbia differences end?

Kupchan: I believe we know where this story will end. The issue ends when Balkan countries integrate into Atlantic institutions and end with recognition of Kosovo's citizenship on Serbia's part. The question is how long will it take to get there? Unfortunately, Serbia is not assisting in this process by occasionally swimming from the European Union from Russia. Russia manipulates divisions in the Balkans for its benefit. We know that it has tried to block Montenegro's integration into NATO, has tried to block the agreement reached between Northern Macedonia and Greece, we also know it has exploited division in Bosnia, but in the end I think that Balkan countries will see that the future will be better if they integrate into the EU than if left in oblivion. The question of when a courageous leader will make these difficult decisions comes into my mind. /Radio Free Europe