Stratfor: Transaction of territories threatens peace in the Western Balkans

Pristina and Belgrade's talks on normalising relations could put peace to the test, especially the controversial idea of territorial exchange, writes “Stratfor”, geopolitical analysis platform.

The Western Balkans is relatively calm in the last decade, but continued efforts to normalise relations between Serbia and Kosovo may be to create conditions for a return to political instability and ethnic violence in the region”, the text says.

“Stratefor” estimates that one of the most controversial topics in the upcoming talks between Belgrade and Pristina in Brussels, on September 7th, will be the Association of the Serb majority communities (AKS), noting that the agreement was conceived in 2013, but that very little has since been reached.

Another controversial topic, which is likely to be spoken, is “correction of borders” which in recent weeks has been spoken by Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vuciq.

Explaining what exactly “correction of borders”, “Stratfor” points out that it has been widely debated in exchange for territories.

The “Ide of exchange of territories, which would create a Serbia and an ethnically homogenous Kosovo, has been discussed in academic and political circles since the 1990s. Opposition parties and politicians on both sides have condemned this proposal, which could lead to strengthening ethnic nationalists in other parts of the Balkans ...”, says the text.

“Stratfor” estimates that both sides will try to get as many territories as possible and make as little concessions as possible.

“Even if an agreement is reached, complicated logistics, political, economic and ethnic problems have caused the vast exchange of territory to be difficult,”, according to the text.

Opposers of possible exchange of territories in negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina are concerned that such exchange could inspire similar changes of borders in the region, writes platforms dealing with geopolitical analysis, broadcast news.net.

Referring to international reactions to the situation, “Stratfor” says the European Union has been careful about the idea of exchanging territory, by the end of August, European Commissioner Johannes Hahn said Brussels can accept an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina, but warned that this “should not serve as a plan for other problems”, perhaps thinking of Bosnia.

On the other hand, German Chancellor Angela Merkel immediately rejected the idea of redressing borders, saying the territorial integrity of the “countries is unprecedented” in the Western Balkans.

US National Security Adviser John Bolton said the White House has the will to accept exchange of territory, while Russia said it is on Serbia's side of the negotiations.

Given all this, “Stratfor” stresses that Serbian diplomacy will be busy in the coming weeks, as President Vuciq will visit Kosovo on September 9th, and then meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 15th.

“Stratfor” also believes it is possible for Vuciq to meet with United States President Donald Trump in the UN General Assembly margins, to be held by 24.