Trump will one day leave the White House, but nothing will be the same

Vienna- For one European, visiting the United States these days is a bit like going to the dentist: teeth are sick, your breath smells are problematic, and you come out there with a constant bad taste.

Recently, I stayed in Washington for three months at the invitation of the Henry A Foundation. Kisinger. It seems, my job was to reach the meaning of a world that was wild. But I think during the time of my stay there, the only thing I achieved in reality was a confusion of a high level.

It wasn't my first visit to America, but it was the most disturbing. What I found to be so disturbing was widespread political polarization that has engulfed the country. It is also clear that America has become more closed to itself, and more inclined to believe in conspiracy theories.

And in Washington now, people are unable to discuss anything except President Trump. They talk about the president, even when they claim to talk about something else. It's always Trump, all the time. The only people who avoid talking about Trump are those who work for him.

When I once visited Washington, people in the government were eager to talk to me - an analyst - about everything from the war in Ukraine to trade with the European Union. They wanted their arguments to be heard on the continent, and they wanted foreign opinion of world events.

But officials in Trump administration, distance themselves from many people especially foreigners like me. Maybe they're afraid that we can understand, that even senior White House officials have a lot of information about what the president plans to do in the future.

However, those who want to speak in the name of Mr. Trump present non-orthodox foreign policy as similar to Richard Nixon's. But what I can't understand in these conversations is who plays Henry Kissinger this time.

Unlike government officials, critics of the president in the world of think-tanks and media seem eager to negotiate with Europeans. This is kind of an endless psychoanalysis in which it's not easy to understand who the patient is, and who the analyst is.

As I met dozens of such people around Washington, I heard the same things: The rump is the best chance of a random president; he is a minority president; he was elected by the Russians; and at some point (even though not too soon) he will leave the White House.

After this conversation lies a combination of anxiety and hope... anxiety over what Mr. Trump has destroyed, and the hope that once he is removed from duty, everything will return to normal. This part is familiar.

I have faced a similar hope in Europe. In most European capitals, policymakers want to believe that before it is too late, Trump will disappear from the scene and world order, including close alliances between Europe and the United States, will return to be what was once the one.

But this is the dirty secret I've learned during my three-month stay in Washington: That's not true. The world will no longer be the same, even if the Democrats win the White House in 2020. And not just because even if Mr. Trump is gone, many of the world's Trumpian leaders will continue to remain in power.

Many of the changes Trump has brought to American foreign policy will exist long after he has left the presidency. When it comes to America's role in the world, he can end up being more consistent than George W. Bush or Barack Obama.

The moment Trump finally could look like Truman's moment, when in a short period, America dramatically changed its views on the world. This may be a difficult thing to swallow from Europeans, but that's the message I'm bringing with me from Washington.

The post-Trumpian world will not be the pre-Trump world. Mr. Trump's presidency has brought about two important changes, likely stable. First, with his administration, Americans have lost faith in their extraordinaryity.

It is not only the presidents, but also the millennium generation (which mainly oppose it), who do not share the belief that America is a necessary <x0comb”, and with a moral obligation to make the world secure for democracy. The difference is that while the new generation believes America is hardly better than other countries, Trump believes that if America wants to protect its global leadership, it must be better than others.

Second, under Trump presidency, rivalry with China has become the organizational principle of American foreign policy. Republicans and Democrats disagree on almost nothing today. But one area where there seems to be consensus among them is that America must change its policy towards China.

Only a few lost souls in Washington continue to believe China's economic development will lead to a political opening. Now there is a consensus, that allowing China to join the World Trade Organization in 2001 was a mistake, and that if America fails to contain China's geopolitical expansion now, tomorrow will be impossible.

In my opinion, America's anxiety about China is the meaning of the fact that the authoritarianism of great and friendly data against China's trade is a far more dangerous opponent of liberal democracies than Soviet communism.

It is common to hear Europeans today, to be nostalgic about the Cold War, a time when the United States and Western Europe joined an alliance against the Soviet Union. But Americans don't share this homesickness. They're looking for allies lined up against China.

And confronting Beijing is not something most Europeans are interested in. It would be a tragedy, and worse still a mistake, if Europeans fail to realize that their relationship with the United States will be determined by China, not only now, but even after Mr. Trump has left his duty.

And for Europe to have a clear attitude at the next clash between Washington and Beijing, it will be much more painful than going to the dentist.

Note: Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategy, member of the Human Science Institute in Vienna, and author of the latest book “after Europe”.

Source Layer: New York Times World.al