a minute agoIs this the end of Merkel's Germany?
Periskopi(9 years ago)
(9 years ago)Nearly two months after the general elections in Germany, interparty talks aimed at forming a trilateral coalition between Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, the Liberal Democratic Party and the ecologist party. The Liberal Democrats said it was impossible to reach a compromise in terms of refugees and environmental issues. Three scenarios can happen [...]
Three scenarios can happen in Germany now.
The first one, Merkel could try to form a coalition with the opposition Social Democrats, the option which was excluded in September from this party.
The second one, the Chancellor could form a minority government, apparently with just another party. This would be the first time post-war Germany would have a minority government.
Third, new elections could be called.
According to The Guardian, this is an important moment for Germany, as each of these scenarios produces considerable political uncertainty in the continent's largest economy. The changes will feel not only in Germany. It is certain that the European Union's approach to many issues will change. The Union could rebuild projects for the eurozone, security, the refugee crisis, Vladimir Putin's alleged interventions, relations with Turkey, the crisis in Poland and Hungary, and the Brex issue. All these require attention, which Merkel's Germany constantly influenced.
More than anything else, the political crisis in Germany marks the decline in Angela Merkel's internal influence, after 12 years in power. This decline is influenced by several factors, the most significant of which is the refugee crisis in 2015, which shocked its leadership. Lapsy.al writes that Merkel emerged weaker than ever in the September 24th elections, with 33% of the vote. Although her CDU left other parties behind, German voters gave the first six other parties chairs in Bundestag. conservative voters influenced the standing up of the far-right party, AFD. 13% of the votes the right-wing extremists won secured them 94 seats in Bundestag.
According to The Guardian, new elections, if held, could also mark the end of Angela Merkel's long political career. There are speculation that Merkel's CDU may seek its replacement as chairman. Even if that happens, it's too unclear who could be the new chairman of the CDU.
Interparty talks in Germany became more complex by the fact that a three-way coalition had not previously been attempted at the national level. The FDP Liberals, who had been Merkel's small partners from 2009 to 2013, wanted to make sure that they would not free themselves this time. Their chairman, Christian Lindner, left the talks Sunday, saying: It's better not to rule than to rule bad”.
While searching for a partner, Merkel theoretically has the opportunity to seek to extend the great coalition with the Social Democrats. But for this scenario to be realised, it would take for party leaders to make a 180 degree turn from their promise in September, that the SPD would stay in opposition. That doesn't even look possible.
The unpredictable German political scene means that the EU will get even more tired of addressing its key issues.
In France, Emmanuel Macron can no longer be sure that he can build a strong Franco-German plant with the help of Angela Merkel to promote the eurozone's governing reforms.
Although the main German parties are very focused on the Brex negotiations, political uncertainty in their country will draw attention to the pull of the United Kingdom from the eurozone.
German policies have often been contradictory in Europe, but Angela Merkel's role in finding solutions, whether with Turkey, migration or even with sanctions against Russia, has often been crucial. The failure of negotiations in Berlin could be the beginning of very difficult times for Europe, writes Lapsy.
