”Balkan at risk”

The danger of a renewal of violence and political instability is growing in the Balkans, according to analyst Daniel Cerwer, a good connoisseur of the region's problems.

The results of progress in the reconciliation of conflict and economic recovery in the continuation of interventions led by the United States of the 1990s have waned, and in some areas even going back”, says Serwer.

International agreements that bring peace, based on the principle that existing borders should not be moved to accommodate ethnic differences, are weakened and can be dissolved with undesirable consequences for the United States.

These could include radicalising Balkan Muslims, increasing Russian problems at borders, or even within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), for example, in Albania, Croatia or Montenegro, as well as a new refugee crisis for European allies.

Over the past 10 years, the United States has sought to lower its commitments in the Balkans and pass the European Union staff, but Brussels is confused, divided and hesitant.

The long post- 2008 financial crisis, Greek fiscal crisis, the influx of immigrants from the Middle East and Brexit have wrinkled the bloc's desire for expansion. The EU's credibility has been dramatically reduced, as has its leverage on Balkan politicians who feel threatened by reforms required for membership, but do not see the chance to join the union soon --” -- continues Serwer, the TCH broadcast.

A repeat of the prolonged and intensive military conflicts damaging the Balkans in the 1990s is impossible the expert, who considers, however, instability and armed clashes, perhaps including trained and equipped paramilitaries with Russians, are a real possibility.