Iran's War and the turning of Friedrich Merzi

German government head Friedrich Merz seemed surprised by US and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February. Important figures from Iranian leadership were killed during these attacks, including the religious leader Aileollah Ali Khamenei, but many civilians as well.

That these attacks would be covered by international law, this has never been claimed by any known jurist, not even any member of the federal government in Germany ever since. However, the word “violation of international law” has not yet come out of Friedrich Merzi's mouth. Instead, he described the Iranian government as a “terrorist regime” and said: “classifications from the standpoint of international law will have little impact.” The US and Israel, according to him, had good “reasons for the attacks.

“I believe that (at first) (at Merz) the belief that Israelis and Americans in Iran are doing things that Europeans are unable to do, but that they share the same political goals”, says politicologist Johannes Varwick from Hall University for DW. At the same time, he did not want to criticize Americans “who are somehow implementing common goals with methods that he himself would not prefer”.

Since then, Merzi's understanding of the Iran attacks caused debate. Critics, such as from “Europapean Center for Constitutional and Human Rights”, charged him with a “capitulation in the face of power policy”, while federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned that international right not to “is set aside”.

Henning Hoffman from the German Foreign Policy Association described Merzi's DW shake-up once as very important international law, as in the war in Ukraine, and at times less important, as in the Iran war thus: “actually, the Chancellor appears to have a situation report on international law. ”

Friendship through approach to Trump?

Criticism increased after Merzi's trip to Washington to Donald Trump, just days after the attack began. With a kind of approach, Merz seemed to be trying to gain Trump's sympathy, which he did temporarily.

A heated debate erupted in Germany. CDU foreign policy politician Norbert Rötgen said in Bundestag that it was about a difficult balance: “What is the least evil?” War, no doubt, is a bad thing. But: “Mull hearing is the worst evil for the region, for people in Iran and beyond.” Meanwhile, Lea Reisner from the left party criticised that Chancellor “had allowed himself to be used as Trump figure”. Experts Johannes Varwick concludes: “Merz on these issues can no longer be stated clearly ) had a wrong compass. ”

Meanwhile, Germany began to feel the economic effects of the war in Iran soon -- due to the impasse of the Hormuz Strait, oil and gas prices rose significantly. This slowed down even further the formerly weak German economy.

In domestic politics, this was the last thing Merzi needed. While assessments of the government's work and especially for Merzin dropped significantly, support for the partially extremist right-wing AfD party increased. Meanwhile, according to polls, the AfD has already passed the CDU/ Merz's CSU.

Merz sees US humiliated by Iran

Then, in late April, the unexpected turn came, at least the way it looked. During a discussion with students, Merz said the US in the war with Iran did not have “a truly convincing strategy”. Iranian leadership was, according to him, down the “ ” The United States.

What caused the turn? “I have the impression,” says Varwick, “that the totally excessive rhetoric Donald Trump used has scared and even pushed many people away even from those who had good will: even talked about Iran's disappearance. ”

The Trump, who was still in full harmony with the Chancellor in Washington, became enraged after Merzi's criticism. On his platform, Truth Social, he accused him of having no idea what he was talking about. No wonder, he wrote, “Germany is doing so economically and generally”.

The wrath of the American president

Five thousand American soldiers are now expected from Germany, perhaps even more. The planned location of the Tomahawk floating missiles as protection against Russia was cancelled. Customs fees for vehicles from the EU are also expected to increase once more.

Merz may have angered the president, but the German population largely gives the Chancellor rights with his new, critical stance. According to a “survey ARD-Deutschlandtrind”, shortly after the start of the war, 58 percent of respondents considered US and Israeli military intervention unwarranted. The German's already low confidence in the U.S. Under Trump has dropped even more significantly. Only 15 percent view the United States as a reliable partner. Since then, these figures have not changed much.

Good will gesture, but only from the German side

Meanwhile, efforts are being made to limit the damage, but at present only by the German side. Although Merz has stood by his assessment of the war in Iran, he promised that Germany would participate in a sea mission in the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting ended. A German demining ship is already on alert. If this mission is to be accomplished, it remains open. But above all, it seems that the gesture towards Trump was important.

However, the transatlantic relationship seems far from being repaired. At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden at the end of May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that “disappointment” Trump's approach to bringing NATO allies to the Iran war should be addressed “at the level of heads of state and governments”. The NATO summit in Ankara in July “will probably be one of the most important” in the alliance's history.

As a result of Iran's 100-day war days in Germany, policyologist Johannes Varwick formulates: “Germania and Europe must determine their interests and not sit like a frozen rabbit in front of the snake, while the snake is in Washington tomorrow, and it moves in one direction, and tomorrow it moves in another. ”

More independence from the United States under Trumpin this was also what Friedrich Merz demanded since early 2025, when he was not a Chancellor. After a phase avoiding public criticism, he now seems to have returned to the starting point. / DW