Albania and Montenegro's progress towards EU “poses risk for new divisions” in the region

However, panel participants estimated that membership of these two countries in the EU could also lead to deepening divisions in the Western Balkans region.

It was also said that EU enlargement in this region would have a positive impact not only on candidate countries, but on the security and economy of EU countries.

The panel of discussion titled “From Policy to People: Security and Options Through Regional Co-operation and EU Enlargement” was held within the G security forum LOBSEC, which takes place in Prague from May 20th to May 23, 2026.

People from the Western Balkans still see their future in the EU

Pavle Jankovic of the Regional Co-operation Council stressed that the research this organisation conducts in Western Balkan countries shows that citizens of this region consider regional co-operation as important, as well as membership in the European Union.

The Barometer Research for the Balkans of 2025, carried out by this council, shows that citizens' support for EU membership has increased in Western Balkan countries during 2025.

According to research, 64 percent of citizens of the so-called “out of the Western Balkans” (Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Kosovo and Northern Macedonia) think that EU membership would be positive for them, which is 10 per cent more compared to 2024.

The highest support for EU membership is among the citizens of Albania (86 percent) and Kosovo (78 percent). On the other hand, the lowest support in the region is in Serbia, with 42 per cent.

Research also shows that most citizens of regional co-operation in the Western Balkans see as “an important driver of progress” in areas such as politics, the economy, security and overall well-being.

This tells us that, despite frustrations, slow reforms and political tensions, people still see their future in the European Union. But, they expect more than declarations, expect jobs, mobility, security, predictability, less corruption and more possibilities”, Jankovic said.

He gave examples of practical co-operation in the region that matter to ordinary citizens, such as lifting roaming tariffs within the Western Balkans or the opportunity to travel with IDs within the region.

The risk that some “successful becomes a problem for others”

Jankovic warned that regional co-operation should continue even after some of these countries join the European Union.

“The future of the membership of one or two Western Balkan economies in the EU should not create new divisions in the region. If Montenegro advances first, while Albania follows, regional co-operation should not be weakened but become more relevant and more flexible”, he said.

Christian Schmidt, the high representative on the run in Bosnia and Herzegovina, agreed with Jankulovqi.

“I think Montenegro and Albania may be an example of success in the coming years, but we need to be very careful that the success of some will not become a problem for others”, he stressed.

Huseyin Bagci, professor at Middle East Technical University, added that it is also important for Balkan countries to have an equal position when they enter the EU, and not feel “an additional pair that the EU mercifully accepts”.

What are the three possible scenarios?

Ana Krstinovska from the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign and European Political, said there are three possible scenarios for the next decade.

The most optimistic scenario is one in which all Western Balkan countries become full-fledged members of the EU.

The second scenario, the middle “”, would be the one in which only Montenegro and Albania become members in the next decade. Krstinovska said he agrees with other participants in the panel that this could create a new line of division in the region, but on the other hand, it would be a signal that the enlargement policy still exists, as well as a motivation for other Western Balkan countries to approach their reforms more seriously.

The third scenario, according to her, is the most disadvantaged for both the region and the European Union a scenario in which none of the Western Balkan countries become EU members.

Krstinovska estimated that the EU is already losing because it has not expanded to the Western Balkans. She cited as an example the production of early critical substances.

In proportion to its size, the Western Balkans is an important producer of copper. However, most of this copper, especially from Serbia, ends up in China in the hands of one of the EU's biggest economic competitors. Meanwhile, the EU imports copper from Latin America, Brazil and Chile, which brings great logistical costs, but also additional risks related to global geopolitical uncertainty”, Krstinovska explained.

She said that the Western Balkans today provide about 3 percent of the EU's copper needs, and that this percentage could rise to 8 percent.

Krstinovska also cited a similar example for aluminum, “especially from Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which also ends largely in China”.

Uneven Development on the Road to the EU

Panelists expressed optimism several times for the quick membership of Montenegro and Albania in the European Union.

These two countries have been singled out as leaders in the process of European integrations, Montenegro is closer to membership, with all the open chapters and intended to close negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania is progressing faster in the region, even though it has not yet entered the closing phase of chapters.

On the other hand, Serbia faces a stagnation since 2021 due to a combination of factors primarily relations with Kosovo, but also problems in rule of law, the state of democracy and harmonisation with EU foreign policy. Four years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Serbia remains among the few European countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia.

Membership negotiations are also blocked in the case of Northern Macedonia, which, despite major compromises it has made -- like changing the name of the state at Greece's request -- remains blocked on the European road due to a dispute with Bulgaria.

In earlier stages of the process are Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, where progress is limited by structural and political challenges.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has not fully implemented any of the 113 key reforms envisioned in the Reforms Agency approved by the European Commission in December last year. The state has pledged to implement reforms in 26 areas with a total of 113 measures by 2027, where an important part relates to strengthening justice.

Kosovo still does not have candidate status, this largely due to unresolved issues with Serbia and the fact that five EU member states do not recognise its independence. During a recent visit to Kosovo, the EU enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, stressed that many reforms have been stalled because of both parties of parliamentary elections held in 2025.

Several EU member states -- Austria, Chechya, Italy, Slovakia and Slovenia -- support the candidate countries' gradual integration into the EU's single market as a way to preserve The rate of expansion and accelerate reforms.

In a first non-paper by Radio Free Europe, the approach “step by step would promote economic integration and harmonisation of rules, maintaining the prospect of full membership.

The idea for the integration of Western Balkan countries into the common European market in February 2026 has been presented by Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. In a joint text for the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, they said countries in the region should not immediately obtain full political membership in the EU, but initially integrate into the common European market and the Schengen area.