CNN: Iran's Supreme Leader facing worst challenge, few options left

For nearly four decades, Iranian Supreme Leader Ajatolah Ali Khamenei has gone through internal discontent, economic crisis and war, but unprecedented attacks by Israel and the United States against Iran pose the biggest challenge yet.

What he decides next will be of great importance to Iran and the rest of the Middle East. But how high is the cost of this attack that its options are few. It's a big test for an 86-year-old declining health and without a certain successor, writes CNN in an analysis.

The extent of the damage inflicted on the Khamene regime remains uncertain, but it struck in the heart of its power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard troops, a key military force protecting the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, suffered the loss of a series of experienced commanders. Iran's nuclear facilities, which were enriching uranium near the level of weapons, were severely damaged, and leading scientists who advanced the program were killed.

The Khamene Armed Groups in the region, operating as its representatives, had already been severely weakened by Israeli attacks, and billions spent on his regime's nuclear programme were lost within 12 days another economic plague at a time of increasing sanctions and inflation.

So extensive were Israeli attacks that Khamene delivered his speeches during the conflict from a secret location, signaling constant concern for his safety. He was not among the hundreds of thousands present at national funerals for military commanders and nuclear scientists killed on Saturday.

And several days passed after the truce took hold, before the Supreme Leader kept a challenging video message to the Iranian people.

“This president (Donald Trump) exposed the real one he made clear that Americans would be satisfied only with Iran's full surrender, and with nothing less”, Khamenei said. He also, as expected, declared victory over Israel and the US a message that prompted a harsh response from Trump.

Look, you're a man of great faith, a man who is highly respected in your country”, Trump said. You have to tell the truth. You got your ass kicked.

Once a skilled leader using political and economic maneuvering to ensure the survival of his regime, the now elderly Khamene rules a land that is eroded and rigid. With uncertainty about his heritage, the state of the nuclear programme, and the strength of his representative groups, he faces a critical choice: rebuild the same regime or opening up in a way that could jeopardise his control of power.

Over the decades, Khamenei has faced a host of ruthless challenges that, together, have shaped his regime.

By inheriting a nation that was destroyed and isolated from the war with Iraq in 1989, he faced the exhausting task of resurrecting the broken economy and society. It had to manage internal discontent and rivalry within Iran's complex clerical circles, face ruthless international economic pressures, and preserve the revolutionary ideals of sovereignty and independence.

It has implemented severe internal pressure at a time of declining public support, especially when women's rights protesters demonstrated for weeks after the death of a woman from <x0moral police”, and when mass protests broke out in 2009 due to alleged election fraud.

Iranian exiled groups established media 24/7 broadcasting propaganda against the regime, and separatist groups revealed the secrets of its nuclear programme. Israeli spy agencies seem to have penetrated deep into Iran, killing nuclear scientists and conducting cyber attacks on Iran's infrastructure.

The main points of Khamene's external influence are an advanced nuclear programme and a network of representative groups surrounding Israel are now paralyzed.

Within the country, Khamenei remains Iran's most powerful figure, supported by a loyal base and institutions built to protect his authority. With Iran wavering from recent attacks and Khamene in hiding, however, the elderly leader may intensify the depression to preserve the conservative ideals of the revolution. /Periscopi/