Forecast of Shenoll Muharrem: VV falls to 38%, will have difficulty creating new government

Analyst Shenoll Muharremi has predicted that the Vetevendosje Movement will lead the race in the February 9th elections, but will find it difficult to create the new government.

That, because according to Shenolly, the ruling party is not expected to get more than 38% of the vote. To retain power, he says LVV needs minimum 46% of the vote and 50 deputies to form the government in coalition with a minority group.

But Shenolly points out that taking into account even the polarising and hostile language of campaigning against other parties, Kurti will find it very difficult to form the new government.

However, their party management is using strategies that will surely exclude LVV from the possibility of forming the government, even though it will win votes. You win the votes, you get the first... but you lose power and influence. This is the eventual outcome of this LVV election strategy. This is not the best option Kosovo is facing. Democracy requires cooperation, and when you're politics, you often have to compromise when not always the idea wins your idea, but it's important that it's good for you to be one.

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You win the votes, chiefson Gara, but you lose the power?

Albin Kurti's strategy is looking like a road to the opposition. Yesterday I tested what LVV would mean if it shrinks from the 2021 level, but it grows from their base, or the reality of the 2019 election.

Even this scenario suggests and confirms that LVV is potentially moving towards the level of 300 thousand votes in the February 9th elections. Gravity is drawing LV to reality and its base, as the year 2021 was extraordinary, not real, unstable.
An average between 2021 and 2019, or a result correcting it from the last elections, but still reflects their dominance and growth from 2019, implies that LVV will have about 330 thousand votes in the February 9th elections. With the scenario of 830,000 votes of exit, this means about 38% of the vote and 43 seats in the Kosovo Assembly. The LVV needs minimum 46% of the vote and 50 deputies to form the government in a coalition with a minority group.

In this scenario, taking into account polarising and hostile language and style against others, LVV and Albin Kurti will find it very difficult to form the new government. This result, when extreme positions integrate that do not allow much space for compromises with others, sends LVV to opposition.

Is this a clever strategy from LVV? Is that something Kurt wants? If LVV and Albin Kurti have built the electoral strategy just as they present Kosovo's “success<x1 economic> in recent years, this could be a misunderstanding and a wrong strategy from the LVV camp. You win votes, but I lose power.
Kosovo needs not deep polarisation, but prudent parties, which at certain times make compromises for common good. In this context, LVV, according to this scenario of results, deserves to be in government as the main party, but must co-operate with another party.

However, their party management is using strategies that will surely exclude LV from the possibility of forming the government, even though it will win votes. You win the votes, you get the first... but you lose power and influence. This is the eventual outcome of this LVV election strategy. This is not the best option Kosovo is facing. Democracy requires cooperation, and when you are politics you often have to make compromises when not always the idea wins your idea, but it matters in general.