Joseph: Burns has told Kurt not to take unilateral action and destabilise the region

Joseph says Donald Trump's possible return to the presidency could lead to drastic changes in US foreign policy. In that case, it does not rule out the possibility of an agreement with Russia on Ukraine, which, it says, would directly affect the Balkans.

For Kamala Harris' possible victory, it is not certain what he would bring, but, according to him, it would be important that Harris address the Balkan “paradox”.

After Ukraine's Russian invasion in February 2022, the West is stronger and more united and Russia is weaker and isolated, while the situation in the Balkans has deteriorated. This is Balkan paradox”, says Joseph.

He also talks about CIA chief William Burns' visit last week to several Balkan countries.

Radio Free Europe: The US election campaign is gaining momentum, while the race between the two candidates is extremely narrow. There's a lot of uncertainty. Surveys take Harris out on the edge of time. How much does this uncertainty feel in the Western Balkan region?

Edward P. Joseph: The fact that the race is close does not affect the Balkans, but affects Donald Trump's prospect of regaining the presidency. Any other Republican candidate was either past or Mitt Romney or George Bush or later like Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley you wouldn't ask me if this election would affect the Balkans. It would be of interest to the Balkans, but would not affect the Balkans.

What affects the region is the prospect of bringing Donald Trump back and essentially other approaches to foreign policy and the role of America in the world. That, of course, would affect the Balkans and the rest of the world. Because, [in that case] there is the prospect of a completely different alliance of an autocrat alliance that would question the continuation of the same approach to [Russian president, Vladimir] Putin and Ukraine. It would be the same with the Balkans: commitment to certain principles in the Balkans would be continued or set aside.

Radio Free Europe: In all, how would the Balkans affect Trump's possible return?

Edward P. Joseph: One of the main issues affecting the Balkans is Ukraine, the war in Ukraine. It [Trump] could try to reach agreement with Russia for Ukraine and push Ukraine towards a territorial solution. If you do so, showing a kind of friendly relationship with Putin, it immediately affects the Balkans. Because, the autocrat coalition like Putin means softer access to [Serbia's president, Aleksandar] Vuciq. In my opinion, the Benden administration has also been very tender toward him.

It should be noted that Harris, when he accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party in Chicago, said he would not befriend autocrats.

Radio Free Europe: In foreign policy, Americans have big issues in the agenda you mention the war in Ukraine, then there's the war in Gaza. In all this tide of events, they've turned their attention to the Balkans, which we can say is the CIA chief's visit, last week...

Edward P. Joseph: What we can draw from this visit is the ongoing concern of the Biden Administration for the Balkans. It should be remembered that at the beginning of this administration, there were officials who said publicly at Congress hearings that there is no reason to worry about conflicts in the Balkans. Now, in August 2024, you have the CIA director, who is involved in extremely complex negotiations for the ceasefire [in Gaza], which runs into at least three Balkan capitals.

The reason he has gone has nothing to do with maintaining interest in the region, but it has to do with his concerns and concerns. And that differs from what we heard at the beginning of the Biden administration.

Radio Free Europe: Is the US trying to finish anything in the Balkans before the elections?

Edward P. Joseph: I don't see it like that. It would be nice if there were an initiative, but I don't see Burns' visit in this context. It was a visit to contain, to warn actors as [RS president Milorad] Dodik and others who could take destabilizing steps. And, Burns is a very good texter.

Sending him has been a good act, but I don't see him as part of any rescue mission or any solution.

If there are secret initiatives, it would be good, but I don't see them as the purpose of his visit. To me, it was a stern warning for those who would make things worse, not to improve things or close open issues.

Radio Free Europe: What do you think Burns might have discussed in Kosovo?

Edward P. Joseph: Look at the picture that was published. You saw Burns sitting next to [Kosovo Prime Minister Albin] Kurt. To the right of Burns has been the [United States ambassador to Kosovo, Jeffrey] Hovenier, taking notes.

I think what Burns has told Kurt is the message that Ambassador Havenier has given not to take unilateral action and not destabilise the region.

As director of the CIA, Burns may also have sought increased awareness of Russia's activities and interest in the region.

On the other hand, Kurt may have pressured Burns on the US position on Vuciki and the case of the Banjska attack. Because Burns is the ideal person to ask about Banjska, what Vuciq knew and what his role was. This may have been an ideal moment to raise the issue. I don't know if Kurt did this, but the CIA chief is the ideal person.

I believe that even in Belgrade, Burns has had an open meeting with Vucinqiq, where in clear terms he has made it known that we know what happened in Banjska, we know what your role was in President Vuciq and we know the activities of other figures in your Government. So we know what your government has done to destabilise the situation and we expect you to stop those actions.

I hope Burns said that in Belgrade, but, of course, they're confidential meetings and I don't know.

Radio Free Europe: Do you think this visit will change anything in the Kosovo-Serbia reports?

Edward P. Joseph: Maybe not drasticly immediately, but there's potential. Because if Kurt and Vuciq clearly understand that the United States knows and normally knows because Burns is the intelligence chief of which actions destabilize the situation and that the United States will not tolerate them, then that could remove some temptation from the table and perhaps turn its attention to co-operation. I think so potentially, but I don't see anything immediate or dramatic.

Radio Free Europe: In Bosnia, one entity is guided by people on the US blacklist, but there are people in Serbia's government. Can anything be done with these people?

Edward P. I hope so. We have indications that Burns' visit had some effects because Dodik has since declared that Republika Srpska's goal has never been to separate from the rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This suggests that Burns' message in Banja Luka has had an impact.

In Belgrade, I'm not sure the message has been received, because the Biden administration has conflicting approaches to Belgrade, unlike Banja Luka. US officials constantly commend Serbia's government for what it does, for example, in Ukraine.

Radio Free Europe: You talked earlier about the impact of Trump's possible victory in the Balkans. I want to ask you about Harris' possible victory. How would it affect the Balkans and the problem between Kosovo and Serbia specifically?

Edward P. Joseph: I don't know the answer to this question and I don't know if it's going to be a continuation of the Biden approach, which in some ways has been the continuation of Trump's approach. Trump has pushed ahead the mini-Schengen, Beden has pushed ahead of the Open Balkans.

The situation in the Balkans has deteriorated, and if Harris is going to take into account the difficulties Biden has faced in the Balkans since the beginning of the war in Ukraine and will prove something different, I don't know.

Radio Free Europe: Do you think the US should engage more in the Balkans?

Edward P. Joseph: If you ask me what Harris would have to do... she should carefully consider the difficulties that the Biden administration has had and face as I have called in my writings Balkan paradox. It must face the Balkan paradox.

What is the Balkan paradox? After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West is stronger and more united and Russia is weaker and more isolated, while the situation in the Balkans has deteriorated. This is the Balkan paradox. Why has the situation in the Balkans deteriorated when the West is stronger and more united and Russia is weaker and isolated? Why are reports between Kosovo and Serbia even worse? Why has the internal situation in Serbia deteriorated? Why have reports between Serbia and Montenegro deteriorated? Why have reports between Serbia and Croatia deteriorated?... Kamala Harris and her advisers would have to face the Balkan paradox. And, unlike senior administration officials Beden, they should stop pretending he doesn't exist.