Are the guarantees for association that are seeking power, solutions to exit the deadlock that Kosovo has introduced itself?

In an interview REL on March 19th, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said it is “on a” line with President Osmani on the issue.

Would the international community offer guarantees to Kosovo?

In the European Union, they do not answer that question, but say Kosovo has long been legally obligated to establish association.

“is urgently needed to fulfil this task”, says EU spokesman Peter Stano.

At the end of last year, the EU also drafted a draft state for the establishment of association, which was handed over to Kosovo and Serbia.

Although it initially appeared to be accepted by both sides, it was not brought forward.

Free Radio Europe also asked the US State Department if it would offer Kosovo guarantees requested by President Osmani, but received no answers.

In the past, senior American officials assured that their support goes to an association in accordance with the Constitution and Kosovo laws.

Are Osman's requests justified?

Leon Hartwell, high associate at LSE IDEAS ʹ London School of Economy, says Osmani is justly sceptical that the foundation of association would bring tangible benefits to Kosovo.

According to him, its demands should be seen in the context of Serbia's continued efforts to destabilise Kosovo.

Therefore, Osman requires guarantees, “to ease possible negative consequences” and “to ensure that Kosovo's interests are protected”, Hartwell tells Radio Free Europe.

With the 2023 agreement on normalising relations, known as the Base Agreement, Kosovo agreed to provide the Serb community with a level of self-awareness, while Serbia did not prevent Kosovo's membership in international organisations, among other things.

Nevertheless, Serbia lobbied against Kosovo membership in the Council of Europe; drafted an official letter through which it pledged it would not implement certain parts of the agreement and was charged with an armed attack on Kosovo Banjska.

By reading between the lines of Osman's statement, it is evident that it requires either a real, legally binding agreement, which obliges Serbia to fulfil its pledges, or BAR in the absence of such a considerable international guarantee”, Hartwell says.

The 2023 agreement and the annex of its implementation were not signed by Kosovo and Serbia, due to its refusal, and Hartwell says that, from the perspective of international law, these documents do not constitute any obligation, even though the EU insists on the contrary.

 

Why are “necessary” guarantees for Kosovo?

For three reasons, says Edward P. Joseph, a legalist at Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

First, the counterpara of the Base Agreement, Serbia, has not been brought in trust since the two countries “agreed to” for the application annex, it says.

Second, the obligations of each side “are not parallel”. It's Kosovo that's required to take the affirmive step to form association... There is no parallel step, for example, of an association within Serbia for Albania”, says Joseph.

Instead, he adds, Serbia is obliged not to oppose Kosovo's membership in international organisations. But, Serbia's number one foreign policy priority is precisely blocking Kosovo's membership in international organisations by word and deed, he says.

“This is why it is essential that the EU and the US have a plan, not just a hope or effort to advance Kosovo's membership in NATO first of all, regardless of what Serbia” does, Joseph believes.

And the third reason why guarantees are essential, according to him, is the fact that the EU “has shown little will” to accept its responsibilities under the Basic and Implementation Agreement.

With agreement should be established the Joint Monitoring Com... led by the EU... for monitoring its implementation. But the EU left this responsibility to arbitrate”, Joseph says.

What would guarantees look like?

Joseph and Hartwell count some options.

To begin with, says Joseph, the main European capitals, such as Berlin and Paris, can assure Pristina that if you hand over the EU draft state for Association for assessment at the Constitutional Court, it will have votes for membership in the Council of Europe.

The EU can devise, simultaneously, even a method to approve Kosovo's application for membership in this bloc, he says.

For Hartwell, the optimum option would be Kosovo's accession to NATO and, to a move, to the EU. But since it is currently irreplaceable, for the fact that there are countries in both organisations that do not recognise Kosovo's independence, there is also a temporary option, according to him.

“Before achieving membership in NATO or the EU, Kosovo can seek bilateral defence agreements with several key countries, such as the US, Great Britain, Turkey and the EU's elected states. These agreements can provide formalised security guarantees, similar to those held by non-NATO allies such as Japan and South Korea”, Hartwell says.

According to him, such agreements, including joint military exercises, would then serve as “obstruction to possible aggression from Serbia”.

Would guarantees be a way out?

Hartwell says that, given that dialogue on normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia is in the dead, if not, the most effective way to end the conflict, are these very agreements, or Kosovo's membership in NATO and the EU.

This approach would also benefit Kosovo Serbs greatly, as it would provide stability and security”, he says.

For Joseph, Osmani is within her rights demanding guarantees, but Washington and Brussels are within their rights requiring the handover of the draft membership state to the Constitutional Court, as well as full respect for the rights of Kosovo Serbs.

Therefore, the best way for Kosovo to get the guarantees it deserves, “is to offer Kosovo Serbs guarantees that deserve as citizens of Kosovo”, says legalist at Johns Hopkins University.

For dialogue...

In negotiations on normalising relations since 2011, Kosovo and Serbia reached dozens of agreements on paper, but few were implemented on the ground.

The last high-level meeting between Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, was held in September last year.

In the last three years, they met eight times, but in neither of the meetings was signed any agreements and each of them blamed each other. /REL