Bugajxi: Another conflict is emerging in Western Balkans, based around Northern Macedonia

So estimates Janusz Bugajski is a senior member of the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC, in an authorial test for TheGeopost.

“in the May 8th parliamentary elections, your coalition “your Macedonia” led by VMRO- The DPMNE received slightly more than 43% of the vote, winning 58 out of 120 mandates. VMRO-backed candidate Gordana Silianovska-Davidova also won the presidential election with an overwhelming majority of 65%. VMRO needs three other seats to achieve an absolute parliamentary majority and will seek a suitable coalition partner. The 19-nation Albanian Democratic Union of Integration (BDI) and the Albanian Party is worth 13 mandates are possible coalition candidates unless VMRO decides no longer needs an Albanian partner. If the large Albanian population feels excluded from the government's decision-making, tensions in the country will increase”, he writes.

According to Bugajski, the dispute with Bulgaria will most likely escalate as VMRO will strongly reject Sofia's demands that Northern Macedonia change its constitution and recognise an ethnic Bulgarian minority.

“VMRO fears such an act could divide the country and weaken Macedonian identity. The outgoing Social Democrats and the main Albanian parties have agreed to such changes, but VMRO considers it a “oditional Bulgarian”dices. Skopje will also call on the EU to persuade Bulgaria to remove its veto of North Macedonia's membership in the union”.

“However, parliamentary elections have also been scheduled in Bulgaria in June. The Macedonian issue could be raised by nationalists who publicly question the identity, language, nationality and history of Macedonians. To draw attention to his failure to free the country from corruption and Russia's devastating advances, another governing coalition led by Prime Minister Boyko Borisov could appeal to nationalist feelings. It will claim that history and Bulgarian identity are being stolen from Skopje, and the population is being prevented from being defined as Bulgarian. It can also pressure the VMRO government to admit that a part of Macedonian history is actually Bulgarian. And this will extend the blockade for Macedonia's EU membership”, the value of Bugajks, under which, Macedonian-Greek relations can also deteriorate as the new government VMRO does not recognise the Press Agreement in 2018, which officially recognised the country as North Macedonia and opened the way to NATO membership.

“President Silanovska-Davidkova has confirmed that the agreement with Greece is in conflict with national law. But any efforts to review the agreement or reject its provisions will raise tensions between Skopje and Athens and convince Greece to block Macedonia's progress towards EU membership. This will lead to further internal tensions between the government and the Albanian people, who do not want to be trapped in an isolated Macedonia”.

“Russia has so far failed to take advantage of disagreements for Macedonia, but now will have numerous opportunities for its malicious interventions. It will judge the VMRO government as an Orthodox Slavic outpost that should establish closer ties with its Russian brothers. Moscow will also play a role in Bulgaria's elections in June by maintaining corrupt ties with certain politicians and parties and inciting ethnic tensions through media, social networks, friendship societies and the Orthodox Church”.

Bugajski estimates the Kremlin will attend at least three of his goals in the Balkans, profiting from rivalries in Macedonia's neighbourhood. First, disagreements in Skopje will support Serbia's expansionist ambitions by drawing Western attention to conflicts that could involve two EU and NATO states -- Bulgaria and Greece.

“Secon second, Serbia can support Macedonian and Bulgarian nationalism against the supposed harmful Western liberal influences and deploy as guardian of nationality, traditionalism and sovereignty in both states. It could even be offered as mediator between Skopje and Sofia if a dispute threatens to get out of control and further intervene in regional diplomacy”.

And thirdly, Moscow can intensify its disinformive offensive against the supposed Albanian and Muslim threat in Macedonia through local media and social networks and foster ethnic hostility. And if Pristina is involved in the dispute with Skopje, it will become even more sensitive to Belgrade's destabilisation. In general, the election results in Macedonia may be a gift from the god to Russia in its fight against the West and its allies”.