In anxiety for the Balkans, US aspires to increased commitment

No further than last month, American intelligence published a report saying that the Western Balkans would likely face increased risk of localised interethnic violence during 2024”.

The US National Intelligence Director's Office report warned that “the nationalist Balkan leaders will likely exacerbate tensions for their political advantage, while foreign actors reinforce and exploit ethnic differences to preserve their influence in the region”.

In the course of these concerns, the US Senate's Foreign Affairs Commission adopted an interparty bill last week aimed at adding commitment of the United States to the Western Balkans.

One of the planners of the bill, Democrat senator Jeanne Shaheen, told Voice of America that the United States, clearly, would not tolerate efforts to undermine peace and stability in the region.

“I have written this bill focusing on the possibility of deepening our dedication and investment in the region, by strengthening trade relations and economic co-operation, and to highlight the means the US has to respond to the malicious influence, corruption and other efforts aimed at undermining the democratic aspirations of the region”, Sahen said.

Edward P. Joseph, legalist at Johns Hopkins University in the U.S., says of Radio Europe's Free Expose programme that American senators are concerned about the region that, following Ukraine's Russian occupation, “is even more important, but even less stable”.

This is why the most important elements in the bill are economics. Encodings of the authority of sanctions against those who threaten stability and engage in corrupt behavior send a strong signal”, says Joseph.

The bill, among other things, places emphasis on dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, and stresses that the two countries should aim to immediately implement obligations issued by the Ohrid Agreement for normalising relations.

When sufficient progress in implementing the agreement has been noted, the United States should think about promoting initiatives to strengthen bilateral relations with both countries, the bill said.

Part of it also speaks of instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a result of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik's sensist rhetoric.

As well as parliamentary and local elections in Serbia, held last December, as well as irregularities recorded in these processes, weighing that they cause deep concern for the state of democracy” in this country.

The bill requires that all these issues be addressed and urges the US to help the states of the Western Balkans Qaeda -- Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia and Serbia -- improve the functioning of the legal state and in making reforms.

Charles Kupchan, former director of European affairs at the US National Security Council, tells of the prosecution that the new bill comes at the time of “anth added to the US” for the security situation in the Western Balkans.

The “is a package aimed at boosting economic ties with the region, but also US leverages in tracking those who cause trouble in the Balkans”, according to him.

The new American bill, in addition to warnings of Russia's influence in the Balkans, also draws attention to “China's growing influence”.

Kupchan says he wouldn't consider it a “game changer”, but rather like “attempts to turn the situation into a proper direction”.

And I think that the strongest lever the United States and the European Union have is integration, it's improving the lifestyle, it's docking in the Atlantic institutions in both the EU and NATO”.

I think, in many ways, this bill conveys the message that we are here, look to us, don't lose faith, don't lose hope, keep moving towards integration in the Atlantic institutions and we will help you”, says Kupchan.

Since Russia started its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than two years ago, concerns have increased in the West that the Kremlin may try to promote instability in the Balkans, to avoid some of the attention from its war in the neighbouring state.

There are doubts that Russia's main ally in the region, Serbia, is also involved in an armed attack that occurred last September in Banjska, Kosovo, where a Kosovo police officer was killed.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, in some cases has said that Serbia, with <x0mods” of Russian President Vladimir Putin, poses a threat to Kosovo.

But this perception seems to be broader than that. A survey by the International Republican Institute in the US, which was released last week, drew Serbia as the biggest risk for half the citizens of the Western Balkans.

In a testimony, days ago, before the American Senate's Armed Forces Commission, supreme commander of NATO for Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, blamed Russia for inciting interethnic tensions in the Balkans and said Serbia is allegedly involved in these influential operations.

He said he has already authorised sending more NATO troops to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“We have made a review of the plan and it has shown that we need not only more forces in the region but also more heavy NATO artillery. Troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina and those in Kosovo should be reinforced for observation, for detection and for monitoring of threats”, Cavoli said.

In an article published earlier this month in Bloomberg, former NATO Allied Forces Commander for Europe James Stavridis wrote that, along with additional stabilisation forces in the region, NATO should also consider the so-called Russian hybrid war.

“Putin is good at using social media, disinformation campaigns and pro-Russian propaganda to create tensions outside its borders. NATO must use its own network of information to expose and reject these false Narrativa”, Stavridis said.

In that spirit, even US House of Representatives Chairman Mike Johnson, speaking last week in support of the aid to Ukraine, said that if Putin is allowed, he will continue to march across Europe.

“think it can even go to the Balkans”, Johnson said.

The American Bill for the Western Balkans, titled “The Act on Democracy and Progress in the Western Balkans”, replaces a similar bill proposed to the American Congress in August 2022.

To become law, he must be approved by the Senate and the House of Representatives before being signed by the American president.

Kupchan says these procedures will be a separate challenge because, according to him, a significant part of the Republican Party in the US sees foreign assistance with skeptical eyes, if not hostile”.

This may be the time to advance the Balkan bill, because the House of Representatives has access to several packages. But it can also be difficult because if more money is distributed for Ukraine and Israel, the question is, Will Congress members be willing to adopt new aid packages for the Balkans as well? We will see how the” situation will develop, he says.

In the United States this year is an election year, and Kupchan says it would be better to try for Balkan legislation to be adopted now during the current administration. /RadioEurope Free/