Elections, referendums test Moldova's European future, Russian influence

Moldovans have begun voting Sunday morning to re-elected or ousting the pro-European president and perhaps to embody their European goals in the Constitution. As they are being encouraged by the West, allegations are that Moscow is mixing in their polls.

Moldova and foreign countries have warned of Russia's alleged intervention through dezinformation, vote buying and the sending of money to fuel unrest, as Chisinev and the international community have shown how much importance they attach to free, fair and peaceful elections.

The current president, Maya Sandu, faces 10 opponents led by the prorus Socialist, Alexander Stoionoglo, and former populist leader, Renato Usati, in the third direct presidential election of the poor former Soviet republic, at a time when the country is facing internal polarisation and the war in eastern Ukraine.

The referendum, called by Sandu, asks 3.3 million Moldovans inside and abroad if the “maintains the change of the Constitution for membership of the Republic of Moldova in the European Union”.

The results of these votes can provide valuable lessons to Sandu's allies and the opposition ahead of next summer's parliamentary elections, which will be a referendum on the four years of governance by the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), which it founded eight years ago.

Although in Moldova the president has limited executive powers, Sandu has successfully used its pro-Western message and its influence with the party AFTER to bring about some limited reforms and ensure the country's formal candidacy for EU membership, despite deep divisions within the former Soviet republic.

One of its most ambitious actions has been the elimination of Moldova's dependence on Russian natural gas after Ukraine's full occupation, but this has caused inflation and other economic difficulties for many of Moldova's 2.4 million inhabitants.

Recent polls show that Sandu enjoys 30-35% support, much more than former UN chief prosecutor Stoionoglo, which she downloaded last year, which enjoys only 9% support, and former Mayor Usatti, who promotes a more balanced approach between East and West in foreign policy, which has 6% support.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a runoff will be held on November 3rd among the two candidates who have secured the most votes.

In addition to strong warnings from local officials, including Moldova's foreign minister, even American and Western officials have accused Russia of interference, citing in July “very clear actions by the Russians to sabotage elections and future referendum”.

Russia, which holds hundreds of troops on a former Soviet base in Moldova's separatist region of Transdniester, where most of the population speaks Russian HINA has denied intervention in Moldovan elections.

Since his party was banned by the Government and later by Moldova's Constitutional Court last year for coup effort, convicted oligarch Ilan Shor has been charged with organising a multimillion-dollar scheme to pay off anti-commerce voters - The EU and various contributors. He is also suspected of other schemes from his exile in Russia to promote Russia among Moldovans and to promote discontent with their government.

Several days before the elections, authorities announced they had arrested four people and warned that dozens more had been trained in Russia and the Balkans to make “destabilised” after the elections.