Les: The association, the only solution é Trump, will be returned with the idea of partition, now with the support of Europeans.

Former British diplomat Timothy Les has commented on political developments in Kosovo during 2023. According to him, the initial 2023 agreement has actually not resolved anything between Kosovo and Serbia.

During an interview for the Gazette Express, Les says the government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti “has brought international sanctions on Kosovo and the possibility of an armed intervention by Serbia”. The only way to avoid these, he sees formation of the Serb majority municipalities, but does not believe the Kosovo side will do so. Name three reasons why he sees little possibility that there will be accelerated implementation of the agreement this year.

Serbia's final target, as I say, is to divide Kosovo along the Iber River and an association with a demarcheded territory would represent an important step in that direction”.

Researcher at the Centre for Geopoliticals at Cambridge University predicts Serbia will expect international politics to turn in its favour. According to Les, this is very possible. He says that at the end of this year Kosovo “will be in a worse position” after European and US elections “will favour Serbia”. If the polls are accurate, Les says Donald Trump will return to the White House along with the idea of redefining the borders between Kosovo and Serbia and the EU will have changes that will make accounting support broad for this option. Serbia, as he says, will be cheaper to postpone this, “if necessary, by austerity tools”, given that the very risk of sanctioning it.

Total interview:

Express newspaper: What was the year 2023 for Kosovo on the international level?

Timothy Les: It's a mixed view. On the top side, the EU has told Serbia that it must accept Kosovo's membership in the UN and reconcile with a comprehensive normalisation of relations in the longer term, i.e. recognise Kosovo. Meanwhile, the Council of Europe approved Kosovo's application for membership, a small step towards its goal of full independence, and the European Parliament approved the removal of the EU visa regime, which Kosovo has long wanted.

On the negative side, EU negotiators have insisted that Kosovo should grant autonomy to Serbs and the EU has imposed sanctions on Kosovo, including the suspension of funding and official contacts, for refusing to do so, and the US has suspended participation in NATO exercises. Meanwhile, Kosovo is in a more active situation of conflict with Serbia, which is now apparently arming and training paramilitary units in northern Kosovo.

Express: Did the government succeed in doing good for Kosovo and what could best do? What could be avoided?

Les: That depends on your perspective. The government has successfully eased the pressure to establish the Association of Serbian municipalities, and has put enough pressure on Kosovo Serbs that a large number are leaving. At the same time, as I say, the government has brought international sanctions on Kosovo and the possibility of an armed intervention by Serbia, which cannot be counted as positive.

The way to avoid these negative results would be to make concessions to the EU on the issue of Serbian autonomy and the outcome of police raids in northern Kosovo, which Serbs perceive as harassment. However, since the government sees such movements as contrary to Kosovo's basic interests, I don't think it will change its position.

Express: The initial agreement between Kosovo and Serbia was not implemented as the internationals wanted. Was something achieved with him in the function of resolving disputes?

Les: Not really, no. There have been some progress on second-rank issues as missing persons, but both sides are still far away on key issues of autonomy for Kosovo Serbs and recognition of Kosovo from Serbia. As far as the eventual solution is concerned, prospects are shrinking. Relations between the two sides have become more and more antagonistic, and the danger of open conflict is now higher than it was in early 2023.

Express: Do Kosovo see itself in a better position in dialogue now, or was it better at the beginning of 2023?

Les: Kosovo is in a worse position than at the beginning of 2023 because of breaking relations with Serbia and tensions in its relations with the EU and Serbia. The warning is that, for the same reasons, Serbia is also in a worse position, and its relations with the EU will likely deteriorate after the elections, which European observers have said were unfair.

Express: Can the normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia be accelerated?

Les: Nothing is impossible, but I don't see many possibilities for a three-way acceleration. First and most importantly, neither side accepts the terms of the agreement. It is especially bad from the prospect of Kosovo, which has been asked to issue autonomy to Serbs without any relevant guarantees of recognition from Serbia. But Serbia is also not prone to the agreement, because its goal is to divide Kosovo and integrate the north into Serbia itself, and the agreement offers only autonomy to Kosovo Serbs.

The second reason, as the events of 2023 have testified, is that the West has no effective means to force neither Serbia nor Kosovo to sign an agreement they do not want to sign. It has sanctioned Kosovo, but it has not worked. He has said Serbia and Kosovo cannot join the EU without agreements, but this has not worked. And she is reluctant to sanction Serbia for fear of pushing it closer to Russia and China, the opposite of what the West is trying to achieve.

And the third reason is that negotiations are under way against a changing geopolitical background, with revisionist powers openly challenging the hegemony of the West. Consequently, neither the US nor the EU have much time or energy to focus on the Balkans, while Serbia in particular has a strong incentive to play for the time rather than sign anything now, in hopes that international politics will return in its favour.

Express: Do you consider the establishment of the Serb majority municipalities is Kosovo's biggest challenge this year? So does that fear that prevails in Kosovo by this association seem reasonable?

Les: It is a challenge for Kosovo in the sense that the West will continue to push for the establishment of a Serbian Communist Association and that it carries clear risks. Serbia's final goal, as I say, is to divide Kosovo along the Iber River, and an association with a demarketed territory would represent an important step in that direction. However, the establishment of association would also create an opportunity for Kosovo, because it would be Serbia's responsibility to make a major concession, as defined in the Ohrid Agreement, including the admission of Kosovo's membership to the UN, and a recognition of the long-term plan.

Express: What would Kosovo open for membership in international organisations or for recognition by five EU nations?

Les: That ultimately depends on Serbia's consensus recognition of Kosovo. The five EU countries are unlikely to recognise it in the absence of recognition from Serbia due to their long-standing fears of separatism. And Russia and China are unlikely to accept Kosovo's membership in the UN if Serbia refuses and does so voluntarily, not under Western pressure. Otherwise, Russia and China can still block Kosovo's admission to the UN, claiming its independence was imposed and therefore illegal.

Express: Is it hard to predict where Kosovo will be at the end of 2024?

Les: I think Kosovo will be in a worse position at the end of 2024 than it is now. The EU and the US are keen to secure an agreement on normalisation in the first months of the year and, to the extent Kosovo resists, will face further international pressure.

This will be followed by a wave of elections that will favour Serbia, including the European Parliament elections that will favour nationalist-conservative parties, elections in Russia that will turn President Putin and the US elections, which, if polls are correct, will see Donald Trump return to the White House. There is also the possibility of a new right government in the Netherlands and a government collapse in Germany, with the transition of power to the political right.

This implies a revival of the division that we recognise since his last term as Donald Trump's solution to the Kosovo dispute, this time with the broad support of Europeans. Meanwhile, Serbia will have more freedom to postpone for this outcome, if necessary, by austerity means, given the declining risk the country would sanction for this.