Expected right-wing growth in EP could affect expansion for Western Balkan countries

The far-right parties in European Union countries (BE) continue to have an increase in citizens' support and are expected to have considerable success in the upcoming European elections held in the bloc's 27 member states between June 6th and 9th of this year.

This has been stated in a recent analysis by the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), a research group that prepares political analysis.

According to recent measurement polls among voters in EU countries, it is expected that extreme right parties will mark significant vote increases and, as a result, the number of deputies in the next European Parliament after the 2024 elections, compared to the number currently held.

On the other hand, it is expected that the centre-left parties will fall and lose votes.

But diplomats in the EU think it is early to predict the effects that will have changes to the European Parliament (PE) on developments in the EU, as coalitions between political groups in the EP differ from those at national levels and do not have a certain model.

Since there is always the EP, what is called “the pro-European centre's” group has had enough majority to set the agenda and pass decisions on this EU institution. In that group, the European People's Party (EPP) is introduced from the right centre, which has the largest number of seats. Then, the Social Democrats (S&D), which are the second group and they have joined the Liberal Group's deputies. But as a pro-European party, they can also be called green.

These four parties, though differ in some EU policies, share commitment that the EU should not be questioned and the integration process should continue. At the moment together, these four parties have 491 deputies in the European Parliament, which has 705 seats.

Their numbers will be significantly reduced if predictions based on polls published by ECFR are realised. They, in the mandate of 2024 to 2029, could count to 451 seats, but in a Parliament with 720 seats.

In Brussels and the member states' centres, there is no doubt that the extreme right will be the most vocal in the European Parliament, because this trend is being seen even in member states that have caused concern. The Liberal Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, radical party in the Netherlands, has won the final election in this country and, if it succeeds in negotiations, can also form the government.

In Belgium, polls lead the Flaman Interest Party, as well as against immigrants and radicals.

In Germany, increased support for Germany's Alternative party has triggered alarms and street protests.

In France the National Movement and Marine Le Pen can win.

Even the analysis of the European Council for Foreign Affairs predicts that in nine member states the right-wing populist parties will win. They'll perform well in other places.

But, on the other hand, their influence on the European Parliament could be greatly reduced if there is unity from their opponents. Neither are all extreme right parties with the same European-level positions. There's a lot of difference between them and they can't create a homogen group. Some of such parties are sceptical of the EU, but not against it.

There are those who want the EU's extinction.

Some far-right parties in Europe are very pro-Russia, both in France, Austria and Germany, while others are major Russian critics, such as those in Poland and Italy. The Group of Conservators and Reformers (ECR) is an example. As far as attitudes towards the EU are concerned, this grouping is skeptical.

But it's very different from the extreme right grouping. This group was founded by the British Conservative Party at the time the United Kingdom was still an EU member. It was formed in response to efforts to deepen European integrations leading to EU federalism. This grouping is not against the European Union, but insists that joint EU institutions have as little competence as possible and that member states' sovereignty be preserved as much as possible.

European Council foreign affairs analysts think that the growth of the extreme right will also have an impact on the European Union's enlargement policy, while their votes may also have implications for the EU geostrategic direction in the future.

The future European Parliament can block legislation needed to implement certain EU policies from climate change to migration, enlargement and assistance for Ukraine”, the group's analysis says.

But diplomats in Brussels agree that even in the future composition of the European Parliament, there will be sufficient majority of MPs to ensure the support of this EU enlargement institution, both for Western Balkan countries and Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

After the European Parliament approves decisions and resolutions with the democratic principle of majority votes, this majority in support of enlargement is expected to be preserved in the next composition after the 2024 elections. That is because the most extremist parties that oppose enlargement are also against the European Union. For them not only would the EU not have to expand, but it would not have to exist either. There are parties in the European Parliament, which are not part of the pro-- The centre's EU, both United Left and Conservators, which also strongly support EU enlargement, provided this expansion does not result in increased competencies for European Union institutions.

The most serious challenge for the centre's political forces in the EU will be the eventual success of radical parties at the national level and their coming to power. In that case, they will also have power in the European Council when it exists and the possibility of veto.

But in the European Parliament, though there may be increased influence, the blocking power of extreme parties could be limited. / REL