A busy and potentially defining year for the EU

The vote, then, will pave the way for the election of three key institutional positions in Brussels -- the president of the European Council and the president of the European Commission -- as well as the EU foreign policy chief.

It is the prime ministers and presidents of member states who choose candidates for the role, often selecting among their own group.

Also, there should be a good geographical stretch, which means that positions are distributed to people from the northern, southern, western and eastern parts of the EU.

This period of election of positions, both in the background and in the public, began earlier this year with Charles Michelin the president of the European Council, who determines the political direction and priorities of the EU which, on January 7th, announced he will run as a candidate for the European Parliament elections.

This surprise announcement will raise the attention of EU leaders, as it opens up the possibility that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is involved in various disputes with the bloc regarding the rule of law in his country and has often not been co-operative with Brussels, especially Ukraine, to become president of the Council. Orban would not be a desired choice in Brussels or in most member states.

Orban could only become president of the Council on the basis of a technique. According to EU rules, if there is no permanent president of the European Council, ʹthe current position of Milcheli the country, which holds the rotating six-month EU presidency, takes over the president's functions. And Hungary is the country that will hold the next presidency by July 1st.

However, this is unlikely to happen. Michel, if elected to the European Parliament, his country is expected to take him in mid-July. And there are two EU summits, already scheduled for June, to reconcile on three top positions, and the chances are great for a successor to be found.

At the European Council vote, there is no vetoable for Hungary or any other country. Decisions are made through majority voting, thus relying on 55 per cent of EU member states, representing 65 per cent of the EU population.

Normally, the new president of the Council would assume his position at the end of the year. Milchel's mandate, for example, lasts until November 30th. But this possible vacuum of power between the possible election of successor in June and taking office at the end of autumn is unlikely to create a back door for Orban, as the successor selected could start the mandate as early as summer. Early departure would require only one change in procedure rules, which can be achieved by a simple majority.

What else?
Set aside domestic policy, there are other issues that will pay attention this year, especially in terms of Ukraine, arms shipments, the bloc's expansion and sanctions against Russia.

The most pressing of these issues is financial aid to Ukraine, especially since Hungary has blocked a 50 billion-euro package destined for Kiev.

Ukrainian officials have said the country can survive without money in the first quarter of 2024. EU officials have told Free Europe Radio that the package will likely get the green light when EU leaders meet for another summit in Brussels on February 1st.

She is likely to move forward for several reasons. To begin with, many believe that Hungary has exceeded in December 2023 when it blocked Ukraine's aid package. Hungary has been the only opponent at the time. Slovakia under the rule of left-wing populist Robert Fico, since October of last year, has not lined up with Budapest as some have expected. It seems that the country's serious economic situation and the country of the Eurozone have moderated Bratislava's response.

The 50 billion-euro package, expected to cover the period from 2024 to 2027, is also the majority of the medium-term EU budget growth. Several billion have been assigned to manage migration, help the bloc fight natural disasters and offer more economic assistance to the Western Balkans -- all these initiatives supported by Budapest.

For this reason, officials in Brussels and several member states want to keep all of them together either approved or nothing.

Fifty billion euros consist of 33 billion euros in loans guaranteed by the EU budget and 17 billion euros in grants.

But instead of Ukraine, Hungary could focus its veto efforts on the enlargement process.

Amid the fuss, EU leaders have decided in December to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, there was a partial green light for starting talks, but only after the European Commission reports late in March on the progress of various reforms.
The point here is that de facto EU membership talks with Kiev and Chisinev have not begun yet and nobody knows when they will begin.

According to some EU diplomats, who have spoken on condition of anonymity, because they have not been authorised to talk about the issue, EU Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhely ) a Hungarian close to the Government in Budapest is not too eager to speed up Ukraine's EU membership.

Furthermore, even some EU member states do not seem ready to proceed quickly, as they say the bloc must undergo institutional reforms before any further expansion occurs.

As for sanctions against Russia, the EU has approved its 12th package just before Christmas, and there is the possibility that a new package will be approved around the second anniversary of Ukraine's Russian occupation in late February.

However, since Russian nuclear and gas industries are likely not targeted, there is not much that can be sanctioned.

One possibility is for the EU to consider a broader stopover of products that are not allowed to pass through the transmission from Russia, to ban or reduce state aid for EU companies that are still doing business in Russia, or to use the now intact ʹ instrument to sanction third-nation companies doing business with Moscow.

There are also about 300 billion euros of frozen Russian assets in the bloc. In December 2023, the European Commission has presented a plan to confiscated them and use them to rebuild Ukraine. Despite Eurozone members' concerns that such a move could undermine the euro's position as an international currency, the G7th, or the group of the seven most industrialized countries, is continuing the talks.

And, in the end, the EU will try to continue sending weapons to Ukraine. However, this is unlikely to be done through the common European Peace Tool, as Hungary continues to block a 500m-euro tranche, and Germany has questioned the legality of filling the funds with more money. Instead, increasing bilateral assistance appears to be the way ahead, at the moment.

The big test for the EU will be if it manages to send a million rounds of 155-mile ammunition to Ukraine by the end of March, as promised last year. There have been some reports that the EU will not meet the deadline. This will largely depend on the EU's capacity and on the pressure Brussels can exert in the defence industry in the coming months. / REL