100 days from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Five Ways of Conflicts

But after 100 days, what way can this war take in the future?

There are five possible scenarios here, although not necessarily exclusive, but they're all within the limits of opportunity.

1. War of Destruction

The war could continue for months -- if not for years -- while the Russian and Ukrainian forces humiliate each other.

Momentum is overcome by money and affix as both sides achieve victory and loss. Neither side is willing to surrender. Russian President Vladimir Putin prejudices that he can win by demonstrating strategic patience, betting that Western countries will suffer from the “loss of Ukraine” and focus more on their economic crisis and the risk of China.

The West, however, is showing reaction and is continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons. The semi-summer front lines are set. As a result, war becomes a frozen conflict, a <x0-long war”.

Mick Ryan, an Australian military general and expert, says: “There are few chances for an operational breach or for a strategic victory on both sides in the short term”.

2. Putin imposes a truce

What if President Putin surprises the world with a unilateral ceasefire? He could put his territorial profits in his pocket and declare <x0fitor”.

He can claim that his <x0 special military operation” has been completed: Russian-backed separatiss protected; an earthly corridor towards the Crimea. He could then seek high morale on the ground, pressuring Ukraine to stop fighting.

This is a trick that can be used at any moment from Russia, if it wants to capitalise European pressure on Ukraine to surrender and hand over territories in exchange for verbal peace”, says Keir Giles, a Russian policy expert.

The arguments have already been heard in Paris, Berlin and Rome: There is no need for prolonged conflict, time to end global economic suffering, let's try for a truce.

This, however, would be rejected by the United States, the United Kingdom and most of Eastern Europe, where policymakers believe the Russian invasion must fail, for the sake of Ukraine and international order.

Hence, a unilateral Russian truce may change the tertiary, but it would not complete the war.

3. Caught on the battlefield

What if both Ukraine and Russia conclude they cannot achieve more militarism and enter talks on a political agreement?

Their armies are crushed, marking human and weapons loss. The price of life and money no longer reasons for further fighting. Military and economic losses are unaffordable for Russia. Ukrainian people are tired of war and are not willing to risk more lives for an elusive victory.

What if the leadership in KiEV no longer entrusting continued Western support - decides it's time to talk? American President Joe Biden openly acknowledges that America's goal is to have “Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the negotiating table”.

But there may not be an impasse on the battlefield for months and any kind of political agreement will be difficult, not least because of Ukraine's lack of confidence in Russia. A peace agreement may not last and may be followed by more fighting.

4. A victory for Ukraine

Can Ukraine- against the odds- achieve something close to victory? Can Ukraine force Russian forces to withdraw to where they were before the invasion?

“Ukrainian will definitely win this war”, the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said this week.

What if Russia fails to capture all of Donbas and suffers more loss? Western sanctions hit the war machine. Ukraine carried out counterattacks, using its long-range missiles, restoring the territory where Russian supply lines lie. Ukraine transforms its army from a defence force to an offensive force.

This scenario is enough reliable for policymakers to already worry about its consequences. If Putin faces loss, he could escape, potentially using chemical or nuclear weapons.

Historian Niall Ferguson, said in London recently: “I find it a little bit possible that Putin will accept military defeat when he has a nuclear possibility of”.

5. A victory for Russia

And what about a potential Russian victory?

Western officials stress that Russia, despite early setbacks, plans to capture Kiev and conquer most of Ukraine. These maximum targets remain further “, an official said.

Russia can capitalise on its profits in Donbas, releasing forces for use elsewhere, perhaps even targeting Kiev once again.

President Zelensky has already acknowledged that as many as 100 Ukrainian soldiers die and another 500 are injured every day.

The people of Ukraine can be divided, some desiring to fight further, others seeking peace. Some Western countries may tire of supporting Ukraine. But equally, if they thought Russia is winning, others might want to cross.

A Western diplomat has told me privately that the West should test a Pacific nuclear weapon as a warning against Russia.

The future of this war has not yet been recorded. ♪ Sokol Berisha, Periscopi

 From: James Landale, BBC