Prospect for Peace in Ukraine Still Far Away

In parallel with attacks and bombings in Ukraine, Russia is also conducting a negotiation process with Kiev reportedly to end its own war.

The first round of talks is held on 28 February, four days after the Russian state has begun its neighbour's unprotested invasion.

Since then, negotiating groups have met several times. The main point of discussion for now is three: ceasefire, the end of all hostilities and humanitarian corridors. But there were no remarkable advances in them.

According to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, negotiations are now under way on daily basis, even though sometimes under circumstances, according to him, very difficult.

“We are continuing to work at different levels to push Russia towards peace and towards the end of this terrible war. Ukraine's representatives are participating in negotiations every day, under very difficult and sometimes scandalous circumstances. But, we're moving forward, step by step”, said Zelensky, who has also called for a meeting with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

The latter has not responded positively, but has expressed readiness for talks on specific topics.

“Problems that are essential for Russia, for our future, such as the neutrality of Ukraine, the demilitarisation and demization of Ukraine, we have been and are willing to discuss in the talks”, he said.

Putin has said he has launched a special operation in Ukraine as he has called the war to demilitarise and denot Ukraine, even though there are no Nazis in his neighbour. Putin has also rejected Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership, claiming without any proof that further enlargement NATO to the east would pose a threat to Russian security.

Moscow says it is ready to stop fighting if Kiev meets its demands. According to Moscow, Ukraine must ban all military shares; it should declare neutral or offer guarantees that it will not join any political or military bloc in the future; it must accept that the annexed Crime Peninsula is Russian territory and that the eastern region of Donbas is independent.

The most difficult part of the talks, according to an analysis the Associated Press news agency, are territories. Ukrainian officials have said they will never accept the Russian annexation of Crime, nor the independence of the separatist Donbas region.

As far as neutrality is concerned, Zelensky appears to have been deterred by what is recently seen as Ukraine's main ambitions. In a statement made on March 16th, he has said Ukraine's application for NATO membership is not real and that his country must count on itself and the assistance of partners.

It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. We understand. We've heard about open doors for years, but we've heard we can't join. That's the truth, and we have to accept”, Zelensky said.

Several round of talks have been held in Belarus the close ally of Russia, while others have been held through video connection.

The Russian team is led by the president's adviser, Vladimir Medinsky, while the Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak. Turkey is making efforts to surround the two sides, as is Israel.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said on March 20th that Ukraine and Russia are close to the “critical issue” and that he hopes there will be a ceasefire if the two sides do not back off from progress made so far.

Cavusoglu has not detailed what critical issues he is referring to, but some analysts are not optimistic that the talks could bring results at least not soon.

Brooker: Russia is not honest in talks

Speaking of Radio Explosion Free Europe ProgrammeUlrich Bruekner, professor of political science at Stanford University in Berlin, says there is no reason to believe Russia is sincere in its efforts to find a peaceful solution. He thinks Russia has until the last moment denied plans for the invasion of Ukraine.

It's important and I'm glad we've reached the negotiating point. But besides that positive outcome, I do not expect much of it. These are not negotiations between the equal, or some form of an international agreement on something. In these negotiations, the rapist speaks to his victim”.

There may be many reasons why someone is willing to sit at the negotiating table. But what makes it difficult to predict, is that we don't know what the objectives of this invasion are, says Bruekner.

In addition to Putin's stated goals, for the “demilitarisation and denization of Ukraine”, Bruekner says the Russian leader may have even greater geopolitical plans. According to him, at this stage of war, no one can say with certainty how events will take place, neither at the negotiating table, nor on the battlefield.

As far back as we've seen from the past, Putin never gives up. If it comes to loss, it escalates [the situation]. But it hasn't happened that [Putin] back off, saying: I've assessed otherwise, it's not possible to achieve quick victory, go back to our territory and start a diplomatic solution. That's not his style. This has not happened in Syria. This has not happened in Chechnya and we cannot expect it to be different in the case of Ukraine”, says Bruekner.

Lutsevych: Ukraine Still Believes It Can Win War

Orisia Lutsevych, from the Chatham Institute in London, the Programme for Ukraine, tells of Russia's approach to negotiations, for now, is neither serious nor reliable.

“I think Putin is exploiting negotiations to convey his threats, while using the military campaign to intimidate the opponent. That's why we see the use of supersonic missiles, we see premature bombings nearby. Nuclear power plants in Zaporjja, see Wild city sieges... All of this is intended to force Ukraine to surrender, capitulate and abide by Putin's ultimatum”, says Lutsevych.

She adds that Ukraine still believes it can win the war and that it is not time to make concessions in the face of Putin's demands.

“Ukrainian believes it can fight. Her armed forces are performing well. Society has been mobilised and if you look at public opinion polls, 80% [of respondents] believe Ukraine will win. So why give in to Putin's demands?

A survey released on March 20th by the Ukrainian Research Institute Rating Group has also found that 74 per cent of respondents support direct talks between the president of Ukraine and the president of Russia.

Nearly half of respondents have said they hope the war will end in the coming weeks, while nearly a quarter of them have said they believe the conflict will last for months.

Lutsevych, from Chatham Institute, predicts three scenarios for War:

“War can end in various ways. Russia I can take over the territory and Ukraine never know that. So there is a cramp, similar to what exists since the prosecution of the Crime. This is a script. The other one, God forbid Kyiv fell. Putin issues a major military power in Ukraine, takes over the political capital, Ukraine collapses and no longer needs a deal”.

“After the third scenario, the two sides cannot win and they decide to negotiate. But we have not yet reached this point”, says Lutsevych.

Analysts who have spoken of the Expo say there are disturbing signs that Russia is planning to intensify attacks and bombings in several Ukrainian cities to win more leverage in negotiations.

Russia has not spoken much about its military losses in Ukraine, but NATO has said 23 March that it may have lost up to 15 thousand soldiers in one month. The independently confirmed numbers of losses are neither.

Ukraine's president, Voldymyr Zelensky, has asked Pope Francescu to take on a mediating role in talks between Kiev and Moscow.

The head of the Holy See has described the war as meaningless “massacre” and unjustified “.

The rivers of blood and tears are flowing in Ukraine. This is not just a military operation but a war that brings death, destruction and misery”.

“War is crazy, please stop it”, the Pope called.

The Russian Army has said on March 25th that the first phase of its military campaign in Ukraine has ended and that it will now focus on the eastern region of Donbas.

In the first month of war alone, over 3.5 million refugees have left Ukraine, and thousands have died in the heat of violence. / REL