What are the chances of China helping Russia militarily?

The United States said Russia has asked China for military assistance in its fight in Ukraine and that China has responded to that request positively. Both Moscow and Beijing have rejected this claim, while a Chinese spokesman named it “dezinforms”.

However, claims have sparked assumptions about how far Beijing would be willing to go to support the most important strategic partner”, just as the Chinese Foreign Minister recently named Russia.

What did the United States say?

After initial reports that Russia has asked China for military assistance, unidentified American officials said Washington had determined that China had sent signals to Russia: Beijing will be able to provide military assistance to the campaign in Ukraine and financial assistance to ease the impact of severe sanctions imposed by the West.

During a meeting in Rome on March 14th, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Yechi against offering such aid, even though the Kremlin has denied having requested military equipment.

The U.S. is careful about China's intentions because the government of Chinese President Xi Jinping has refused to criticize the Russian invasion, and has even tried to distance itself from the Kremlin war. calling for dialogue and restating her stance that state territory should be respected.

If nothing else, China is more likely to offer small elements, such as bullets and food than warplanes and tanks, experts said.

China “likely wants to avoid a sale of high profile weapons to Russia amid a conflict that could expose Beijing to international sanctions”, said Drew Thompson, former US Department of Defence official who currently legalises at the Lee Kuan Yew Public Policy School in Singapore.

Beijing would be more willing to offer spare equipment, spare materials, ammunition and double-use equipment, which does not conflict with sanctions and can avoid an international response, Thompson said.

For example, Russian helicopters will likely use their ammunition to strike short-range portable missiles such as Stinger. China could sell Russia such equipment if they are in line with Russian systems, Thompson said. China can also share intelligence and surveillance information, he added.

In view of Washington's warnings, any Chinese assistance could possibly include very basic “things, such as packages of food rations for soldiers, said Sam Roggeveen, director of the International Security Programme at the Australian Lawy Institute.

He added that Russia would be practically impossible, in a short time to integrate Chinese weapons into its armed forces.

Will China do it?

Though not impossible, Chinese and foreign experts said there are several factors that oppose Beijing's possibility of helping Moscow. First, if China helps Russia, that would look bad.

“Kina will be very careful and will do its best to avoid having her help and other assistance be used on the battlefields in Ukraine”, said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

Roggeveen estimated that there is no “for profit” for China if you help Moscow, and added that a weakened Russia would go to China in strategic and economic terms.

Chinese officials have also repeatedly said during this crisis that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states should be respected, even though critics have said Beijing's refusal to criticise Russia's conquest is in conflict with this position.

Russia's “Military operation in Ukraine has turned into conquest, and China will never offer weapons to help a state attack another sovereign state, if this action is not in accordance with international law”, said Li Xin, director of the Institute for European and Asian Studies at the Shanghai University for Political and Jurydic Sciences.

China, too, does not want the conflict to deteriorate or become part of it, so any Chinese support “will be measured and calibrated by”, Thompson said. / REL