Former American diplomat: Hoti and Vuciq have no readiness to reach an agreement at the White House

Commenting on the September 2nd meeting at the White House between Kosovo delegations and Serbia, Countrymann says that much cannot be expected from this dialogue, and the least it can achieve is an incentive for both leaders to engage more in Brussels' dialogue.

In this interview, former responsibility for the Balkans at the State Department, now director of the Association Board for Arms Control Thomas Countrymann, says that even if Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti would compromise with Serbia, he has difficulty securing their approval in Kosovo because of political rivalry currently occurring within Kosovo.

Radio Free Europe: The US president's special envoy for Kosovo-Serbia talks, Richard Green, has said the leaders of the two countries will meet at the White House for talks on September 2nd. A similar meeting was set to be held in June, but was canceled due to the Special Prosecutor's Office's announcement in The Hague that it has filed an indictment against Kosovo President Hashim Thaci for review. How did you comment on these developments?

U.S. for the September 2nd meeting: Economic progress moves the peaceful process forward

Thomas County: The first thing that's important to understand is that the only priority for the White House these days is the re-election of President Donald Trump. What the White House is targeting is an opportunity for a photograph, where the president could claim a foreign policy success, as he has had zero successes in foreign policy in three and a half years. But I don't see that (Serbian president) Aleksandar Vuciq and (Kosovo Prime Minister) Avdullah Hoti has the will and willingness to reach a meaningful agreement at the White House meeting.

Radio Free Europe: But Ambassador Green has been appointed to this position in October 2019. That wasn't an election year. Talks mediated by it produced several agreements between the two countries. Do you think the United States is more interested in finally resolving the issue between Kosovo and Serbia?

Photo by the last round of Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, held in Brussels on 16 July.

Thomas County: It's a difficult question to ask; are the United States interested? President Trump is interested in whether this would help in the election campaign. Period. While I think Green is interested in success. There has been limited success by the European Union and the United States. But it is an open question whether the United States will support this as an interest that is not for the direct benefit of Donald Trump.

Radio Free Europe: The European Union is mediating a process of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. Do you think there is a rivalry between Washington and Brussels to enable reaching a peace agreement between Kosovo and Serbia?

Thomas County: I think it's not about rivalry, but clearly about a lack of co-operation between the EU and the US. The European Union leads a more systematic process than the US one. The EU is focused on resolving a broader spectrum of issues between Kosovo and Serbia, instead of a political declaration of leadership of the two governments. The U.S. approach is different. But, I don't think there will be any success until the US and the EU get together at the same frequency.

Radio Free Europe: The US Embassy in Serbia said the meeting warned at the White House would push the Brussels dialogue forward and bring more stability to the region. Do you think the invitation to the meeting was only made with the aim of supporting the dialogue in Brussels, or is there something more?

Thomas County: I really hope the White House will encourage both leaders to engage more actively and concretely in the Brussels dialogue. This is the least such an appointment would have to reach. I don't think you can expect anything more than this meeting.

Radio Free Europe: Let's talk about the positions of Kosovo and Serbia in dialogue. On one side we have President Vuciq, who enjoys a considerable political power in Serbia, and on the other, Prime Minister Hoti, who has a weaker political power. Can this affect dialogue?

Thomas County: From my point of view, none of the governments are really prepared, at this time, to make difficult decisions in terms of reaching an agreement. You are right that Prime Minister Hoti does not enjoy an independent political base. Major political maneuvers are currently under way in Kosovo. I don't think that if he achieves substantial compromises with Serbia, he could secure their approval in Kosovo. You have the right to say that Vuciq has a full control of the Serbian parliament and a full control of Serbian media. He is engaged in undermining any independent organisation or media. So this is a powerful “hand”.

But, I think he (Vuchic) hopes an agreement with Kosovo would enable Serbia's membership in the European Union. He's got the wrong focus. In my opinion there should be no perspective for Serbia to join the EU before it makes deep reforms in rule of law, fighting corruption and respecting media freedom. Unfortunately, in all these areas Serbia has moved back. My advice to both governments (Kosovo and Serbia) is to focus on reforms even more than on negotiations with each other.

Fighting corruption, rule of law and media freedom will advance Kosovo and Serbia economically and would bring these countries closer to the European Union.

Radio Free Europe: You said the governments of both countries are not ready for agreement. Why do you think that?

Thomas County: Because I think that even more difficult is for Kosovo's prime minister than for Serbia. As you said, Prime Minister Hoti does not enjoy great political power, and the fact that he goes to the White House does not change that reality.

Radio Free Europe: Let's talk a little bit more about dialogue in Brussels, do you think this dialogue will succeed, and will the EU be able to convince the parties of reaching a final agreement?

Thomas County: I think it's going to be a long and difficult process. The issues are technical, but at the same time very political. At this moment I do not see any of the governments being willing to compromise on major political issues, including mutual recognition.

So I'm optimistic about the Brussels process in the long term, especially if the United States does more to co-operate and co-ordinate with the European Union. So I'm optimistic in the long-term sense of the process. But I have limited expectations for the coming months.

Radio Free Europe: You, when do you expect a final agreement between the two countries will be reached?

Thomas County: (scoffs) Before the Messiah returns. I can't make a prediction.