Recent data shows how much Albania, Serbia lost from 100 tax

In fact, it seems that the introduction of a 100-man cargo tax from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Kosovo has begun to produce the first effects and in Albania. Based on INSTAT's monthly reports on foreign trade, Kosovo's export of goods has increased by considerable numbers. In the 4 months of this year (January 2019) the increase is 3 billion dollars more than in January-April 2018.

Referring to INSTAT data, Albania exported 8.9 billion dollars of goods to Kosovo this year, at a time that in January-April of last year has exported 5.8 billion dollars. The value of goods exported to Kosovo in January 2019 amounts to 1 billion dollars. In February the figure was $1.9 billion, recognizing an increase of more than 800 million dollars compared to the month of January. Growing efforts followed in the following months; in March 2019, at 2.7 billion dollars, and in April the value of 3.1 billion dollars.

What Albania Exported to Kosovo

If we analyze exported groups of goods, it turns out that the largest weight in this growth has been the group's primary, electrical fuel fuel, and the construction material group and metals. According to INSTAT's data on foreign trade according to the goods group, in January (April 2019), Albania has exported goods, food, drink, tobacco, worth 266 million dollars more than in January-April 2018, 208 million more money groups ) chemical and plastic goods, 113 million more dollars in wooden and paper goods, 624 million dollars more goods and metals, and 1.76 billion more cash (U.S.) cash worth of goods, power, jail power.

What happened to Serbia and Bosnia from taxing?

Since the tax was imposed, in October of last year, the indirect impact in Albania has been felt after a three-month period, enough time to “braza” Kosovo reserves with Serbian goods and those of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The introduction of the tax, in fact, has provided a direct and immediate impact on the reduction of Kosovo imports. If we analyze the figures of the Kosovo Statistics Institute, an immediate cut in Kosovo's imports from Serbia and Bosnia results.

Referring to data from the Kosovo Statistics Agency in November 2018 (just after the tax was introduced) Kosovo's imports from Serbia dropped to 15.5m euros, recognising more than half of them compared to November 2017, when imports were at a rate of 36.9m euros. The same effect, the tax went to Bosnia and Herzegovina, where imports in November 2018 were 3m euros, at a time that in November 2017 they were at 6.2m euros. In December, the situation of Kosovo imports from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina recognised further decline.

Referring to data from the Statistics Agency in Kosovo, in December 2018 the level of Kosovo imports from Serbia dropped to 5.3m euros, while Bosnia and Herzegovina's decline was even more dramatic, to 199 thousand euros. We remember the fact that in the same period a year ago (November 2017) Kosovo imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina stood at 7.9m euros. Even January has been a month of significant losses for Serbia and Bosnia, in which Kosovo imports from those countries stood at 1.4m euros and 312 thousand euros, respectively.

February and March of this year have also been months when the level of trade exchanges of Bosnia and Serbia with Kosovo fell to the most minimal levels. In February Kosovo, from the monthly level of 30m euros previously, imported only 482 thousand euros of goods from Serbia. Likewise, Bosnia and Bosnia's exchange rate fell to 829 thousand euros. This year's March month followed suit. In Kosovo, 535 thousand euros of Serbian goods were introduced and only 34 thousand euros of goods from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“Fatura” of the current losses of Serbia and Bosnia. If we analyse the figures of the Kosovo Institute of Statistics, from November last year until March of this year, Serbia has lost about 20-30m euros every month, compared to the level of the first tax imposed. Meanwhile, Bosnia too has known considerable losses. Reference to the figures of the Kosovo Statistics Agency from November last year until March of this year, Bosnia and Herzegovina has lost at least 18m euros, compared to previous levels of goods it introduced into Kosovo.

Balkan States That Benefited From Tax

If we analyse Kosovo's commercial geography, based on data from the Institute of Statistics, it turns out that in the Western Balkans region, part of the CEFTA agreement, Albania and Macedonia are the biggest beneficiaries.

For a few months, Albania's goods have recognised a significant increase in presence on Kosovo's territory, distinguishing the <x0 strong numbers since February.

The growth of the first 4 months of the year is estimated at about 3 billion dollars more than the same period a year ago (January 2018). In fact, the same trend is found with Macedonia. Macedonia's goods have also recognised an increase in presence, with the same weight as Albania's goods.

Referring to the statistical data of Kosovo institutions, it turns out that in the value of Macedonian goods exported to Kosovo, it has reached 20m euros, evening Albania.

Who is replacing Serbia and Bosnia in Kosovo?

Albania and Macedonia are the two Balkan region countries that are benefiting the most. However, on the map of Kosovo's trade geography, the state that is benefiting more exchanges since the tax is imposed is Slovenia. Referring to data from the Kosovo Statistics Institute, it turns out that Slovenia has significantly increased exports to Kosovo by doubling them in a few months.

According to the ISK, in November 2018 when the tax was applied from 4. The 8m euros, which were imports from Slovenia in November 2018, amounted to 9.6m euros in November 2019. Even in December 2019, imports stood at 16m euros at a time that in the same period last year they have been at 7.1m euros. In January, the growing trend for Slovenia continued further. Kosovo imports from Slovenia amounted to 13.8m euros at a time that in January 2018 they have been at 5.4m euros.

Even in February 2019 Kosovo's imports from Slovenia stood at 13.5m euros at a time when in February 2018 they have been at 4.3m euros. Meanwhile, in March 2019, imports from Slovenia amounted to 8.6m euros at a time since March 2018 the level of imports was 5.6m euros. This way, as Slovenia has consolidated a new level of trade exchange with Kosovo from 6-7m euros per month, exceeding the figure of over 10m euros a month. However, the annual exchange performance between these countries remains to be seen.

If the trend consistent in these months continues to remain so in the coming months, then it could be said that the state that benefits the most, in value, from imposing the tax may be Slovenia. Even Turkey has recognised a new <x0Hov” trade exchange with Kosovo since the establishment of a tax on Serbian and Bosnian products, even though the levels reached after the tax is imposed, it has been issued in months ahead of its deployment. Turkey, like Slovenia, has increased exports by 22.7m euros, compared to the January period March 2018. The largest increase was in March, with 13.6m euros more than March 2017. In November 2018, about 30.8m euros of goods were imported from Turkey to Kosovo.

In the same period of the previous year, imports amounted to 23.9m euros. In December 2018, the number of Kosovo imports from Turkey amounted to 32m euros, to recognise a fall in January 2019 to 19.7m euros and to continue growth in February and March with 25m euros and 38m euros respectively. The level of imports in March 2019 from Turkey reached its highest point. Another foreign trade partner with Kosovo that has moved with progressive steps (at least by March 2019) is Bulgaria. The latter, in fact, appears to have been showing a clever “”, putting exports to Kosovo at the beginning of the 100 % tax on goods from Serbia and Bosnia.

According to Kosovo's INSTAT, if in October 2017 Bulgaria's export to Kosovo was at the value of 5,266m euros, in October 2018 the value of goods exported from Bulgaria to Kosovo was 6,179m euros. In November 2018 there was also an increase of goods exported from Bulgaria to Kosovo by 137 thousand euros from November 2017. And in December 2018, Bulgaria made a marked difference, with a total of 2,876m euros in growing margin from December 2017.

Bulgarian exports to Kosovo during the last month of 2018 was 8,566m euros, while in December 2017, this value of exports was 5,690m euros. Apparently, this tax on Serbia and Bosnia has been a good opportunity for other states as well; the possibility which did not go unintended. Bulgaria has continued to increase exports to Kosovo even during the first quarter of 2019, likening Slovenia.

In January (February 2019, imports from Bulgaria, Kosovo has raised 8.4m euros compared to the same period last year. 23.4m euros is the value of goods exported to Kosovo from Bulgaria in the first quarter of 2019, while in the same period in 2018, goods exported from Bulgaria to Kosovo amounted to 15m euros.

Hungary and Greece are two other states that have benefited from the <x0th) gold potential” of the tax setting. Greece has had the largest “boom” in March 2019, with an increase in exports worth 12m euros. Hungary, on the other hand, has exported 5.8m euros more goods in the first three months of 2019 than in January (February 2018).

This quarterly progress by Hungary does not even capture Greece's month-long progress, however, in itself, each country has received a piece of Serbian “torta”. These figures, compared to previous years but with each other, suggest that if Serbia was ranked first, not only has it been “moved from the map of Kosovo's commercial geography, but it has consolidated Germany's position in the first place of Kosovo trade partners. On the other hand, the second “ ” appears to have been divided among many other states, with which the level of imports ranges from month to month.