Kosovo to be Angela Merkel's last battle

In the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia, Chancellor Merkel's legacy of foreign policy, the stability of Europe, but also the future of the Western alliance, Bodo Weber thinks.

In negotiations led by the European Union between Kosovo and Serbia on a comprehensive and final agreement on the full normalisation of bilateral relations, a major US diplomatic offensive has been noted since the beginning of the year to reach an agreement based on the idea of exchanging territories. The idea was publicly promoted by the presidents of Kosovo and Serbia, Hashim Thaci and Aleksandar Vuciq, in the summer of 2018. Especially Belgrade is not tired of talking about “compromis” since the beginning of the final phase of political dialogue in 2012 under Chancellor Angela Merkel.

President Thaci brought for the first time the idea of exchanging mainly Serb-inhabited north in Kosovo with the Serb-run territory of the predominantly Albanian Presevo Valley, including the mutual recognition of the two countries. None of the three participants have made any plans for this, in talks fully kept secret by the EU's charge of foreign policy, Federica Moghrini, have been made public.

Non-fat Alliance of Balkan authoritarian leaders

The German government has voiced opposition to this proposal, and Chancellor Merkel, since the supporters of the idea, is represented as incorruption. Why should the EU and the US oppose such an idea, they ask, if both sides agree and why?

Actually, this proposal is about something entirely different, that protagonists present: For a non-profit alliance of two Balkan authoritarian leaders with the EU's burden on foreign policy and the unpredictable Trump administration, which overturns political dialogue as the basic principles of the three decades of stabilisation and democratisation of the Western Balkans.

After the Kosovo war was Belgrade, which rejected the realistic compromise, including UN taskman Matti Ahtisaari's plan, which Pristina was forced to implement unilaterally by transforming it into the constitutional order of today's Republic of Kosovo. Years later it was Chancellor Merkel, who used Belgrade's EU integration efforts to resolve the stalled status conflict, linking Serbia's membership to recognising the reality of the loss of Kosovo, and thus supported by Great Britain and the US achieved a historic success. In the April Agreement in 2013, Belgrade actually recognised Kosovo. The then Prime Minister, Ivica Dacic, spoke publicly, that politics and society have lied to themselves for a decade, that Kosovo is still part of Serbia.

Secret Negotiations as Political Returns

Although the EU at the time had not effectively highlighted the final point of dialogue, both sides were clear that this meant full normalisation of the relations involved and mutual recognition. This was served by statements expressed by Merkel and then Foreign Minister Westernell that the timing of changes in the Balkans is over.

Therefore, recent secret negotiations present a strong political turn in the opposite direction. The motivation of both key actors is different: For President Vuciq, it is an attempt to use the EU's current political weakness to draw more than is possible from the dialogue framework that has been agreed on. At the same time, it seeks to draw attention to domestic political problems, the consequence of authoritarian-autocratic consolidation of power with Western tolerance.

While President Thaci privatised negotiations against all resistance to all political parties of Kosovo Albanians, in hopes of fleeing from the threat of an indictment by the EU Special Court for War Crimes at the end of the Kosovo war.

Federica Moghrini, whose inability as negotiating led the dialogue to a existential crisis now desperately tries to turn her failure to succeed, in principle turning her lack of principles. Common denominator with Trump administration of an unusual Brussels axis -Washington stands in the task of passing the Western liberal-democratic principles in favor of a “dealming” deal, in the sense that “any kind of deal is a good deal”.

Saving territories would destabilise Balkans

The potential consequences of an exchange of territories, the inflated legitimacy that the West would make the ethnotrious principles three decades after the end of the Balkan Wars would be unimaginable: The Exodus of Serbs living in majority in southern Kosovo, who knowingly in Vuciki's account set aside, would be unannable, followed by armed conflicts between the majority Serb population and Kosovo Albanians in the north.

The ethnonationalist destabilisation of the entire region from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Macedonia would follow. The Western Balkan countries' membership process would be long forgotten. The EU, weakened inside by populists and nationalists, would be threatened existentially even more. An ethnoritorial division supported by Western actors would have major consequences in facing Russia for maintaining Ukraine's territorial integrity, with unpredictable geopolitical consequences.

Merkel must assume leading role

For Chancellor Merkel, the current development means a kind of recent battle in foreign and European politics. Within the EU, Merkel as well as her Social Democrat Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, have expressed more clearly publicly against the idea. This position is supported by the majority of member states, including Spain and Slovakia, which do not recognise Kosovo. But they hide as much as they can behind Germany, hoping in the mayoral role of the Chancellor. Merkel currently seems reluctant to enter this battle for political heritage at the end of her era.

To prevent a territorial exchange agreement with all its consequences, the Chancellor needs to regain its European leadership position in political dialogue. At the same time, it should give public understanding to both Belgrade and Pristina that in the event of a signing of the exchange agreement on territories, due to the risk of peace and democracy in the Western Balkans, the prospect of EU membership would be removed for a long time. Bundestag could also adopt a relevant resolution of various parliamentary groups.

In addition, Berlin must gather other EU member states behind it for an initiative to resume dialogue negotiations, the initial framework of dialogue. It remains to be expected, if the April 29th summit, called by Chancellor Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, will be a first step in this direction.