Elections came up with numbers of government, but not necessarily a solution.

While there are sufficient combinations on paper for a ruling majority, in practice, deep polarisation among parties questions its functionality, say connoisseurs and political circumstances.

According to the Central Election Commission's preliminary data, Vetevendosje (LVV) has emerged first with 42.91% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 21.08%, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 17.60%, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 7.17% and the Serbian List with 6.17%.

Numbers are, will is missing

Donika Emine, from the Balkan Policy Consultative Group in Europe, estimates that these results, under normal political circumstances, would create an almost ideal basis for governance.

“in a system where political compromise functions normally, this would be an ideal formula -- a clear winner but not dominant, which requires broader political co-operation. However, Kosovo is not in normal circumstances. After two years of institutional crisis and deep polarization, these results are at risk of reproducing”, Amy praises Radio Free Europe.

In the same line is politicologist Dritaro Arifi. He stresses that the problem is not arithmetic but political.

There are no numbers. The problem is political will. If there is readiness to move forward, the solution can be found”, he says.

According to him, much will depend on LVV's position if it is willing to enter coalitions.

After announcing the results, the leader of this party, Albin Kurti, warned that he would communicate with all political subjects, stressing the need for functioning “public interest and general will”.

So count on us, not only in the work we do, but also in the co-operation we're going to do”, Kurti said in front of his supporters.

President's node and difficult options

The June 7th elections came as a result of disagreements over the president's election, following the end of Vjosa Osmani's mandate.

They were third in less than a year and a half after regular elections on February 9th 2025 and another early party on December 28th.

The first failed to produce governments, while the latter, though they gave Vetevendosje Movement over 51% of the vote, the largest majority in independent Kosovo, no agreement was secured for the president, according to a Constitutional Court decision.

Osman himself, who was the LDK candidate for the post in the June 7th elections, said LVV has no reason to reject its name for the presidential post.

There are thousands of reasons to say yes, and they are all in the interest of the state”, she said.

In this context, the presidential issue remains one of the main obstacles to any political agreement.

According to Emin, from the prospect of institutional stability, the strongest coalition would be the one between LVV and one of the two main opposition parties -- the PDK or the LDK.

“In the numeric respect, a coalition with the PDK would be more powerful, but politically extremely difficult, due to the high level of polarisation. A more natural option remains co-operation with the LDK. Kurti himself, in the past, has left open the possibility of such a partnership”, says Emini, but emphasises that the main node of this co-operation remains the president's election.

The LDK sees this post as reserved for Osman, but LVV has not witnessed readiness to support it, as it has completed its first mandate in April.

Arifi, too, sees with scepticism an LV coalition V- The PDK, but does not rule out the possibility of a broader agreement between Albanian parties, including the prime minister, the prime minister and the president.

“Logically, it will go towards who will have the prime minister. While the president's case will be used as an excuse, to actually get to the prime minister's post. How will this be done? It's going to be very difficult”, he says.

Amid Compromise and the New Crisis

In this situation, according to analysts, Kosovo faces two scenarios: a political agreement providing institutional stability, or a new cycle of blockades that could lead to new elections.

Amy considers compromise the most rational way, as it would guarantee not only government formation but also election of president and long-term stability.

However, it warns that until now political practices leave room for another crisis.

If the blockade's logic prevails, a new election cycle cannot be ruled out. Although politically and financially costly, this remains a real scenario”, she says.

Even according to Arifi, a lasting solution requires a comprehensive agreement.

“... otherwise, the country risks being left without institutions and entering a long period of uncertainty”, he points out.

Effects Beyond Internal Policy

Failure to reach an agreement would produce not only internal crisis but also consequences on the international plan.

According to Emin, such a situation would damage Kosovo's strategic position and relations with key partners.

Kosovo risks perceived as a secondary issue in the region, except when it relates to a security crisis. At the same time, it would send a negative signal to domestic state capacity and damage integration processes with the EU”, it estimates.

Arifi adds that the lack of functional institutions would bring stagnation to foreign policy.

Neither the US nor the EU co-operate with a country without institutional stability. Actually, unfortunately, we're at a dead end and this is a loss to the state and not to any particular political individual,”, he concludes. / REL