Montenegro on faster road to EU membership, Serbia lags behind

This country has received the positive EU Standards Rating Report, while Serbia continues not to join the bloc's sanctions against Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.

From Brussels' perspective, this causes Montenegro to be viewed as the first future EU member.

Montenegro has opened negotiations for membership in June 2012, while Serbia in January 2014.

The stages where these two countries are now in the membership process are essentially different.

So far, Serbia has opened 22 out of a total of 35 negotiating chapters for membership in the European Union. Of those 22, it has temporarily closed 2.

Negotiations between Belgrade and Brussels are virtually frozen now for three years, due to the failure to impose sanctions against Russia.

Montenegro, on the other hand, has opened all negotiation chapters and provisionally closed 3. After several years of stagnation, this country has resumed negotiations in June of this year and is now working towards closing them.

Montenegro's split from Serbia

Serbia and Montenegro, not officially, have been treated in the group, as the two most advanced countries in the process of membership negotiations, respectively.

With Brussels narrators, they are called “lidere” in the membership process.

But, after Montenegro has resumed the negotiation process in June, while Serbia shows no indication that it will impose sanctions against Russia and thus “created” negotiations, the so-called “division” among them occurs naturally. And, currently, there is only one leader towards EU membership and that is Montenegro.

Jana Yudova, from the Institute for European Policy UROPEUM, says Serbia still has a long road ahead to show it is really trying to make democratic reforms.

Because of the road Serbia is undergoing in terms of democratic performance and relations with Russia, I think, currently, there is no argument for Montenegro's and Serbia's” reunification.

“If the most pro-democratic and pro-Western ruling elite were shown in Serbia and the country would speed up the pace of reforms, then the situation could change and maybe we had two leaders again”, she adds.

In the “the string of candidates for European integration, Serbia, according to it, has become a neurox2> problematic children” in the Western Balkans.

Montenegro in the EU in 2028

European Commission experts do not rule out the possibility that Montenegro, by political will, closed all negotiation chapters over the next two years, to pave the way for full EU membership by the end of this decade.

A calendar plan currently exists at the European Commission's Enlargement Directorate, under which Montenegro could complete the entire process of membership negotiations by 2026.

Under that plan, Montenegro could close four negotiating chapters this year, six chapters are scheduled to be closed during 2025 and all remaining chapters during 2026.

The projected time for provisional closure of chapters reflects the European Commission's assessment of the complexity of achieving that stage. The real deadlines will depend on the results offered by Montenegro and the views of member states and may vary from three to six months, except those chapters that are scheduled to close at the end of 2026, which is the political deadline for closing negotiations”, the European Commission document that has seen Radio Free Europe.

Under this plan and under the most ideal circumstances, Montenegro could become an EU member in 2028.

The hypothetical period between 2026 and 2028 So between the outcome of negotiations and full membership is necessary, so that all European Union member states of 27 can ratify the membership agreement in their national parliaments.

“Montenegro has the best chances if it maintains its newly acquired momentum and shows convincing results in implementing the rule of law and democratic reforms”, Yusova says.

EC more cautious with dates, but does not rule out 2028

Gert Jan Kopman, director general of the Directorate for Neighborship and Enlargement Negotia, believes Montenegro's EU membership by 2028 is <x0real”, if the official Podgorica engages seriously.

“As for motivation for the country itself, [the definition of 2028 as the deadline for membership] is very useful. It is a transformational thing because, every week, cabinet meetings will be held, where progress” will be considered, Copman said at a panel in Brussels dedicated to enlargement.

In official reactions, European Commission officials are more careful when it comes to dates.

In a written statement to Radio Free Europe, the European Commission's press service said that the president of this institution, Ursula von der Leyen, has already confirmed that enlargement will be a priority in its future mandate and that the Commission is working to speed up work and accelerate the gradual integration of the Western Balkans.

There are no defaults. It is clear that membership remains a process based on merit, fully dependent on each partner's objective progress”, the European Commission's statement said. /Radio Europe Free