Leaders' change, EU enlargement, Kosovo-Serbia dialogue HINA busy autumn in Brussels

But this autumn will not be common in Brussels, as the EU is in the process of changing leaders. In June, EU leaders decided that former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will replace Charles Michel in the post of European Council president on December 1st. Weeks later, The EP approved the EU leaders' decision to grant German, Ursula von der Leyen, even a five-year term at the EC's helm. But instead of holding another annual speech in September, von der Leeyen will be busy forming her new team of 26 commissionors, one from each other EU member state. Some capitals have already submitted their candidates for commissionors before the 30 August deadline. After von der Leyen interviewing all candidates, she's going to post a policy portfolio for everyone.

Callas and Varhely

So far, only one name and one portfolio are known: In addition to the appointment in June of Costa and von der Leyeen, EU leaders have also decided that Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas, to be the successor of Spanish Josep Borrell, in the post of new foreign policy chief. However, this is not a job done. Like the other 25 candidates for commissionaries, Kallas will also face hearings before key EP committees. In the case of Kallas, the most important committee is the one for foreign affairs, whose members will also question the new EU Enlargement Commissioner.

Diplomats in the EU have told Free Europe Radio that hearing with Callas is scheduled on 29 September. In fact, the news cycle in Brussels in the second part of September and in early October will be dominated by these hearings. They offer the EP the opportunity to show the muscles by refusing a series of candidates for commissionors, believed to not perform well during responses during hearing sessions. (Last time, in 2019, European MPs refused three candidates, and later was in the hands of states “sponsorry” to quickly propose new names for new hearing sessions.

One of the candidates for the commissionary who will face the Euro-deputes will certainly be Hungarian politician Oliver Varhely. He has been nominated by Budapest for a new five-year term as a commissioner for enlargement. Charged by many diplomats for placing the interests of Budapest before Brussels dealt with Varhely has a mild attitude towards Serbia and Georgia, but not so much towards Ukraine he was involved in a scandal because not knowing he was still on the microphone, during a plenary session he called the Eurodeputs “idites”.

While Varhey is less likely to be offered again to lead the expansion, he expects hard work to convince lawmakers that he is the right person to lead a portfolio that will be trusted by von der Leyeen. In some districts, there is hope that any commissioner and the new European Commission as a whole will be approved to the European Parliament in order to start working on December 1st. But it is not ruled out that this issue is dragged beyond that date.

Kosovo- Serbia

None of the European officials with whom Radio Free Europe has spoken expect to have real risks for Kallas' approval. But it will be interesting to know what it and the new enlargement commissioner mean for Ukraine, Russia and the Western Balkans, and for the possibility of increasing new members in the bloc. There is no radical change expected in this direction. EU policy is committed to full support for Ukraine, and renewed efforts for the bloc's series of expansion have been reformed and candidate states are meeting all preconditions. But how these messages will be conveyed is essential.

Kallas has the reputation of being Russia's <x0-cycricistic”, probably the first chief of EU diplomacy to take such a strong stance against Moscow. It should be noted that the entire bloc has moved closer to the position of the Baltic states towards Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began two and a half years ago, but there were doubts when its name was mentioned on the post, as it had been very critical of being an EU diplomat.

Hence, it is expected to soften our tone when it meets the Eurodeputs and is expected to discuss other topics, not just Russia and Ukraine. In fact, it would not be a surprise if she spoke equally of the war in Gaza, reports to countries in the south of the Mediterranean, and the need for stronger reports with other powers from “South Global”, including Brazil and India. Likewise, it cannot be ruled out for its first trip abroad, after taking over the new post to be in the Western Balkan states aspiring to the EU instead of Ukraine. Such a choice may simply be to highlight the importance of these countries.

Diplomats have also been told REL expects it to be ready to deal with dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, in 2020 urged former Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak to serve as the EU's special representative for dialogue. But this process has produced little real progress, and it seems that the post currently holds Lajcak could be completely removed when Kallas becomes the bloc's new top diplomat.

EU enlargement?

It will also be interesting to see who will choose von der Leyeen to the post of commissioner for Enlargement. With the expansion of the EU again a hot topic with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, which are the last countries to have recently been invited to join the bloc, and the last two are estimated to have made real progress with more EU states are interested in getting this dictatorship, as opposed to 2019, when Budapest alone requested the post. As Estonia, named a member state <x0ndor” in Brussels, took over the foreign policy post, would be a surprise if any “andor” next took over the enlargement leadership. Likely, von der Leyen will see someone from the south or west set up in this post so that there will be geographical balance and avoid accusations that the bloc's only focus is on Ukraine. The thing to observe about the commissioner for enlargement, of course, is whether there will be any time reference to when future EU enlargement can occur.

It is almost impossible to know when a state can join the bloc, but the latest high-level effort to promote a time frame was presented by outgoing European Council President Charles Michel, who last year challenged the EU to become ready for expansion by 2030. This case is not in his hands and he will soon leave this post anyway. But the truth is that even this date seems ambitious, as no candidate country seems close to membership. But, the issue during the hearing sessions, even in the years to come, will likely focus on reforms the EU itself must make in order to accept new members.

Discussions have only begun, but if Brussels is serious, these changes must be made soon. Will the EU budget increase? (current candidate states are all poorer than the average in the EU). And what political reforms are necessary for the EU to range from 27 members to over 30 members in the years to come? Less vetoable for the capitals of member states is a common refrain, but to be achieved that nobody vetos such a decision first is a big challenge. During this autumn it will not be said, but there is constant fear that the EU itself is not ready to accept new members.

Positive reports of some Western Balkan states?

Divisions, the composition in the European Commission's evacuation will likely publish its annual enlargement report, highlighting progress, or lack of it, for states aspiring membership. The report is expected to be positive for Moldova and Ukraine, but it is not expected that these states will open EU membership chapters this year. The evaluation process through which the EU examines national legislation and estimates whether it is in line with EU regulations and laws in various areas should be completed by the first half of 2025. Only then can negotiations begin seriously.

For Georgia, which in recent years increasingly has disagreements with Brussels, the report will be less enjoyable: No real progress is expected, and the EU will likely take into account how free and fair the 26 October parliamentary elections will be before deciding on any further action. The EU has suspended high-level meetings and military aid to Georgia due to the adoption of the Law for <x0->agents to foreign”. There may also be other sanctions if the situation gets worse.

On the other hand, real progress towards the EU can be expected in some Western Balkan countries. In this direction the possibility of Montenegro closing several negotiating chapters should not be ruled out, something it has failed to do since 2017. This would signal that Podgorica, after years of blockade on the road to EU membership, will once again continue this process, at least slowly. Montenegro continues to be the state that has advanced most towards membership, as it has opened all 33 chapters and some of them have finally begun to close.

There are also expectations that Albania will launch de facto membership talks this autumn, eventually breaking out of Northern Macedonia, while Skopje has not yet changed the Constitution to meet conditions set by Bulgaria. Few expect North Macedonia to achieve this during this year. Meanwhile, although some states are demanding that Serbia open membership chapters, it may not be backed by many states that have been shaken by close reports between Belgrade and Moscow. /rel