CIA chief's visit to Bosnia and Serbia, “responding to Kremlin and sensist aspirations”

I am convinced that this is a serious problem because the CIA director rarely goes on such missions and publicly proclaims them. I suppose one of the reasons is the growth of the mountain influence of Serbia and Russia in the Balkans”, estimates to Radio Free Europe Shrgja Pavllovic, historian and associate of Alberta University's Wirth Institute in Canada.

An American Government official, who asked not to be appointed, told Radio Free Europe that discussions of William Burns and his associates with the head of the Intelligence Security Agency, the Presidency and Bosnia and Herzegovina Foreign Affairs Minister on August 20th focused, among other things, on the escalation of tensions by Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik.

On the other hand, Serbia resists pressure from the West to impose sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine's full-scale invasion.

Belgrade also refuses extradition of suspects to organise the attack on Kosovo Banjska last September, while its talks on normalising relations with Pristina have stalled.

Dodik openly supports Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he has met several times since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Bosnia and Herzegovina “has joined” Western sanctions, but has not implemented them, due to opposition from political representatives from Republika Srpska to Bosnia's State Council of Ministers, led by Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).

Dodik and other leaders of the Republika Srpska have been sanctioned by the US because of the violation of the Dayton Agreement, which has ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as corruption.

Under sanctions are also companies owned by Dodik's family, or related to it.

What message does the CIA chief's visit send?

FATHER, a senior associate at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, tells Radio Free Europe that Serbia “has long been causing problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina” and that this has become the most visible and dangerous “.

The Burns Visit is a very good message to Serbia that the United States will not tolerate its own actions”, says St.

According to her, the problems in the Balkans would benefit the Kremlin because they would distract the United States and Europe from the Russian war in Ukraine.

Kadri Kastrati, former commander of the Kosovo Security Forces, tells Radio Free Europe that “Russia is waging a hybrid war in the Western Balkans”.

The biggest threat of conflict is in Bosnia and Herzegovina, through Republika Srpska, and northern Kosovo. The visit of senior officials to this region shows that they have enough information for Russian efforts via its satellite Serbia that this part of Europe is at risk of potential conflict... and it is certain that they have come here to give their recommendations”, Kastrati says.

Hybrid warfare is a pattern of war, or conflict, with activities mainly related to information and media warfare. If such warfare fails to achieve the desired effect, then possible use of armed force occurs.

Nexhad Korajliq, professor at the Faculty of Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo, tells Radio Free Europe that the US is watching to prevent the escalation of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, of “particularly the ideas stemming from the entity of Republika Srpska”.

There can be nothing negative about Bosnia and Herzegovina. There may be negative consequences for certain individuals, especially those on black lists”, says Korajliq.

He recalls that US sanctions have had a negative impact on Republika Srpska's financial flows.

The US has sanctioned the head of the entity of Republika Srpska, but also the former prime minister of the other entity -- the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina -- then the former head of state and head of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Agency of Intelligence and Security, among others.

The US has also sanctioned Aleksandar Vulin, former head of the Intelligence Agency in Serbia, now minister in Serbia's Government.

What can be expected in the future?

Armin Krzhaliq, professor at the University of Sarajevo Faculty of Security Studies, believes the US policy from Dayton to the present will continue in the future, “in the context of American interest protection”.

And that interest is the preservation of the sovereign, integral state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with all its characteristics. The US will develop mechanisms and opportunities for all those who threaten their interests in this area, especially in the context of Bosnia and Herzegovina's integrity preservation”, Krzhaliq says.

About ten days after US Assistant Secretary of Finance Anna Morris's visit to Sarajevo on March 7th, banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina have begun to close accounts of individuals and companies from “blacklist” so they do not become subject to sanctions.

Ilija Cvitanovic, state representative of the Croatian Democratic Union in 1990 and a member of the Commission for Supervising Bosnia and Herzegovina's Intelligence and Security Agency, tells Radio Free Europe that the CIA head's visit to Bosnia and Serbia also shows that the “responsible for assessing the security situation worldwide are very interested in Bosnia and Herzegovina” and that the <2> will not give up on its”.

When it comes to attacking the Constitution, let them worry about the visit, because I am 100 percent sure that it conveys the United States' message of commitment to Bosnia and Herzegovina”, says Cvitanovic for Radio Free Europe.

Shemsudin Mehmedovic, former representative of the opposition Party of Democratic Action and today the leader of the Napried Party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, says that “political process of dissolution that has included Bosnia and Herzegovina has to do with the Russian influence in the Balkans”.

This visit by the CIA director can be seen in this context”, he says.

He adds that <x0cesionism and the destructive policy of some officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are political Belgrade satellites, relates to Mr. Burns' visit to Sarajevo and to Belgrade”.

“The consequences of the visit will be seen in the coming period”, says Mehmedovic.

What's discussed at meetings?

Former CIA director John Brenan visited Sarajevo in 2016.

Mladen Ivanic, then a member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency from Republika Srpska, says he does not think anything practical will happen following CIA chief William Burns' visit to Bosnia and Serbia on August 20th and 21st.

On the contrary, it is a sign of their desire that the idea they have created with the Dayton Peace Agreement is completed and Bosnia and Herzegovina remains relatively stable”, Ivanic says.

“They do not support separatism, but do not even support the desire for excessive centralisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, because they know very well that in the conditions in which we live, it is not realistic and possible, because of the collective rights of the two nations”, he adds.

According to him, this is a constant one and it will not change, no matter who the US president is.

Ivanic also believes that the CIA chief's visit to Serbia “has nothing to do with Bosnia and Herzegovina”, but “more with its relations with Kosovo”.

Dragan Mektic, who as former Bosnia and Herzegovina Security Minister has met with former CIA head Brenan, says such visits are useful for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

According to him, relations between countries and intelligence agencies are analysed at such meetings, and priorities are identified.

Even concrete issues are sometimes discussed, mainly when it comes to the fight against international terrorism, and Bosnia and Herzegovina's country in the global antiterrorism coalition is very important”, says Mektic.

A day after Burns' visit to Bosnia, Dodik said that “Republika Srpska has never rejected Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “decis has never been the policy of our”.

In March of this year, the US intelligence community mentioned Dodik's name in the annual report on global threats.

Burns, former diplomat and ambassador to Russia, is one of the central figures in the administration of the American president, Joe Biden, and is part of his cabinet.

Messages from Banja Luka, Belgrade

Republika Srpska's leadership regularly sends messages for secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina and for joining Serbia, while Serbia's political leadership sends messages in support of Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereignty.

The two leaderships -- in the presence of the leaders of the Serbian Orthodox Church -- have agreed to “Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Joint Future of the Serb People” in the UN Assembly on June 8th, and the two countries' assemblies have later adopted it in July.

In some countries, the Declaration insists on respecting the Dayton Agreement and does not speak of secession.

However, the Republika Srpska government has formed a working group for drafting an agreement on the peaceful “accord for the peaceful” of Republika Srpska from the rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Authorities in Republika Srpska have adopted a set of laws aimed at “converting jurisdiction” from the Bosnian state to the entity of Republika Srpska, but that have been cancelled by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia or the International Community High Representative to this country.

At the same time, the number of EU military forces members in Bosnia (EUFOR) has increased.