How will the killing of Hamas' leader affect the Gaza ceasefire talks?

Talks to end Israel's devastating war on the Gaza Strip were heading towards failure even before Ismail Haneyeh, Hamas' political leader, the group declared terrorist by the United States and the European Union, was killed.

However, the murder of Haneyeh by an alleged Israeli attack on July 31st, makes reaching a ceasefire agreement and even continuing negotiations even less possible.

Haniyeh, 62, played a key role in international mediated talks on reaching a permanent agreement in the Palestinian enclave and on the release of Israeli hostages being held in Gaza. It is also regarded as largely moderate within the organization.

“The Arab Gulf country, along with Egypt, has been mediating months of negotiations.

Egypt's Foreign Ministry expressed similarly, stressing that the murder has undermined peace talks.

Hamas' military arm said that the killing of Haneyeh in Tehran is <x0” that will take the war to new levels”.

Despite the threats, Hamas may not have the military capacity to retaliate. He is still recovering from the brutal 10-month war in Gaza, resulting in nearly 40,000 people, mostly civilians, according to health officials in the Palestinian enclave.

Hamas is unlikely to be eager for further talks now.

Hayeh was a well - known international figure who was accustomed to correct relations with important allies across the Middle East and beyond.

In some of the recent photographs, he is seen embracing Iran's supreme leader, Ayatolah Ali Khamenei. Haneyeh lived in Qatar, which enabled him to travel and to be present for important meetings.

His death leaves great emptiness, and it is unclear who will follow.

Yehya Al-Sinwar is Hamas' armed arm chief and is seen by many as the mastermind of the Palestinian group's attack on October 7th, where 1,200 Israelis were killed. Hundreds were taken hostage.

He's believed to be hiding in Gaza.

Another high figure, Zaher Yabar, leads Hamas to the West Coast, occupied by Israel. He's hiding in Gaza too.

Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas' leadership, and these two men are seen as prime targets.

A new leader may come from Hamas' political office in Qatar, but the odds are that this will take time and it is not clear what position he would take.

Hayeh was named by some as pragmatist, compared to the elements of Gaza-based Hamas' hardline. However, he too had been declared a terrorist by the United States and supported the October 7 attack on Israel.

Even if Hamas decides to continue talks, it is unclear and who will have the authority and capacity to represent the group in important talks.

Iranian state television said Haneyeh's murder would postpone talks for “several months”.

Many observers have also hinted that the killing of Haneyeh increases the risk of a regional conflict. Khamenei quickly blamed Israel and vowed that Iran would avenge the murder of Haneyeh.

A major escalation is likely to delay even more negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

But much depends on Iran's actions and its militant group network in the region. As they examine the answer, Tehran with allies will likely be careful to save his face and not encourage Israel to retaliate.

If Iran avoids a serious escalation, then an obstacle to the resumption of negotiations between Israel and Hamas would be removed in the future.

But this is estimated as a “if<x1 large>.

Iran has also blamed the United States for the murder of Haneyeh because of Washington's military, diplomatic, and economic support for Israel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied Washington has been involved or aware of that attack.

But he was cautious when he commented on whether the killing of Haneyeh could have an impact on the Gaza ceasefire talks, saying on July 31st that the “important for all is to reach the” ceasefire. / REL