France blocks sale of Rafal fighter aircraft in Serbia, Kosovo one of the reasons

A few days after Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq spoke of an agreement between Serbia and France for Belgrade to buy 12 French fighter planes, Rafale, comes news that this issue will be conditioned by Paris.

French television network, BFM TV, quoting the AFP agency, says Dassalult Aviation, the French producer of these planes is currently refusing to discuss a possible sale of aircraft in Serbia.

The operation could bring 3 billion euros, but France aims to receive confirmations of political developments in Serbia before sealing the acquisition.

In addition, Serbia is said to be increasing the purchase of weapons -- be it European, Chinese or Russian -- and that in ten years, the Serbian military budget has tripled.

From 2012 to 2023, the Serbian military budget tripled, reaching 1.4 billion euros.

More than the combined budgets of five other Balkan countries, the French media writes.

Between 2014 and 2023, Serbia spent 2.67 billion euros on arms purchases especially to buy Chinese antiaircraft systems. FK-3, Russian helicopters Mi-17 and Mi-35, as well as the Russian air defence system Pantsir.

Nearness to Russia

The proximity of the Serbian head of state with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin poses a problem for Paris.

While Serbia has condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine, it is not listed with Western sanctions.

In late March, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic visited Moscow, an opportunity according to Serbian diplomacy to improve “traditionally friendly ties between Serbia and Russia”.

Above all, purchases from Russia and China have not been halted since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In February, the Serbian president proudly presented his latest purchases: Russian Repelents, an anti-drone system, and Chinese drones.

He also promised that an explosive threat produced in Serbia would come to work by the end of 2024.

Serbia's “Republic buys weapons and military equipment from East and West”, the Serbian Defence Ministry explained in March in response to an AFP question about its purchases from Russia and China, “selecting those whose characteristics will improve the capabilities of Serbian armed forces”.

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France has long committed itself to intensify its defence co-operation with Serbia. A bilateral defence co-operation agreement has existed since 2011 and was resurrected since 2019. A partnership that's not about everyone's taste.

It would be ridiculous for Paris, on the one hand, to mention sending troops to Ukraine, and on the other hand to sell an extremely sophisticated weapon to one of Russia's closest allies”, says Jasmin Mujanoviq, political science researcher.

Selling Rafare to this Moscow ally “would be disturbing because it would allow information flow in China and Russia”, he believes.

Serbia's eyes on Kosovo

According to Serbia's White Defence Letter, published in 2023, the largest “security efficiency” for Belgrade is on the other side of the border with Kosovo, which became independent at the end of a bloody war with over 13,000 deaths.

Among the conditions required, the French president also cited the need for easing tensions in relations with Kosovo.

However, if Rafale's sale occurs, “you can see French fighter aircraft used to intimidate Kosovo. These planes can be used against neighbouring countries”, warns Jasmin Mujanovic.

The aircraft, which went into service in 2004, and is intended to fly until the 1920s, is the tip of the French defence industry's export spear.

Seven countries have Rafhale planes or have entered trade deals to buy them: Egypt, Qatar, India, Greece, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates and Croatia.