EU dilemma: Will new members be able to cope financially?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put enlargement at the helm of the EU agenda. But the countries that line up to join the European Union are poorer than the existing members. Would new members empty the budget?

“Pa farmers, no more bread” this was a popular slogan during more than 200 roadblocks organised by Polish farmers in February of this year. On the outskirts of the Polish town of Cook, two hours by car from the Ukrainian border, hundreds of tractors blocked a road to prevent the entrance of Ukrainian cheap wheat into the country. For farmers here, there is another major concern: they fear the entry of Ukraine, Poland's eastern neighbour to the EU, as it may threaten their livelihood. Forget about it. This is a crazy idea”, one of the protest farmers told DW during the blockade.

For more than a decade, the EU looked like a closed club, where aspiring countries were lined up waiting to enter. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has radically changed the situation. In late December, the EU opened negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, as well as granted Georgia candidate status. For understandable reasons, the EU is now viewing enlargement as a security instrument. The budget is part of the discussion, but it may not necessarily be the crucial factor”, points to the DW, Th Th Thund Nguyen, deputy director of the Berlin-based independent institute Jacques Delors Centre.

Recent protests in Poland bring this back to memory even though the economy is no doubt part of the EU's political motives. Currently Brussels' new enthusiasm for enlargement is coupled with fears that enlargement will put some EU members and citizens in an economic disadvantage.
The EU spends most of its budget on regional development and agriculture. The concept: member states that are less affluent receive more money from the EU than they pay. The eight countries currently in line for membership are all poorer than the current member states. Turkey would be the ninth EU candidate country, but its accession process has been suspended.

Enlargement Links Hopes for Economic Improvement

For Jasna Pejovic from Montenegro, EU membership would give the country “more legitimacy”. Montenegro is the country that has made the most progress on the road to EU membership. 80% of the Montenegrin population wants to be part of the EU. Speaking of the DW in its starting office of e-learning Flourish in Podgorica capital, Jasna says that being a citizen of the EU would be like a certificate of appreciation for her business. For the DW it states that investors who have not done business with Montenegro say that if we were part of the European Union the situation would be different. Montenegro, with a small population of 630,000, would not represent any major strain on the EU budget.

“If the EU were to accept Montenegro for tomorrow it would really have to pay, but no one would notice, because it is affordable”, says Natalie Tocci, adviser to two former EU foreign policy commissioners. “But for the EU there would be no economic stimulus.” For Western Balkan countries, membership would bring opportunities and economic prospects to millions of people, at an manageable cost to the EU. And yet, most Western Balkan countries remain pending for more than a decade. Northern Macedonia for even two decades.

Ukraine to overshadow several member states

A new candidate for membership for Ukraine recently appeared on the eastern horizon. Hit hard by the Russian invasion, this country received candidate status in June 2022. In terms of Ukraine, the most populated and poorest of all candidate countries would be “a game otherwise”, says Natalie Tocci. “It's because of its size because of the agriculture sector, because of the average well-being and, above all, because it's a country at war with the need for 500 billion euros for reconstruction still up. ”

If Ukraine were to join the EU, it would become the largest European agricultural producer and burden much more on EU finances. If all EU farmers together work up to about 157 million hectares (387.35 million hectares) of arable land, Ukraine would add another 41 million hectares. For some current members, this would bring unwanted competition to the domestic market. Poland, for example, has actually climbed to one of the most competitive food producers in the EU since membership in 2004. If Ukraine joins the EU, this position will be threatened because Ukraine's industrial farms overshadow the Europeans. We would probably go bankrupt, since we would easily be flooded with much cheaper products from Ukraine,” says Lucas Czech, a Polish farmer of cereals and pigs from Parczew, who also receives EU subsidies.

Would new members empty the EU budget?

According to an internal estimate by the European Council, the admission of all candidates would cost the EU around 256 billion euros, only Ukraine is estimated to receive 186 billion euros over the seven years, but the country's reconstruction costs are not included after the destruction of war. Experts Thu Nunguen thinks that “financial consequences would not be as high as some of the numbers suggest.” But even Thu Nguyen cannot say exactly where the additional money that the EU needs will come from. “It is possible that they come from current member states. It is possible for the EU to collect funds through new sources. For example, there are discussions about a plastic tax or CO2 adjustment mechanisms.” Some EU member states want to push forward the membership process at an unprecedented speed. Whether they succeed or not, it will depend on the future composition of the new European Parliament, which will be elected in June. / DW