American Professor: If something happens in Bosnia, escalation of the situation could also be in Kosovo

All three of these represent the main pillars of the state, which after the war split into two autonomous regions: Republika Srpska and the Federation dominated by Bosniaks and Croats.

The international community's high representative in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, said at the time Dodik's plan is equivalent to partitioning.

“The prospects for further division and conflict are very real. Bosnia could face the greatest existential threat since the post-war, if the international community does not take measures to prevent Serb separatists”, Schmidt said.

Even though he repeatedly repeated threats of partition, Dodik did not take any steps in practice, saying he would wait for a more appropriate geopolitical moment.

But American intelligence said he, in fact, is taking steps for the de facto secession of Republika Srpska.

In a report by the US National Intelligence Director's Office, which became public this week, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik said that “is taking provocative steps to neutralise international oversight in Bosnia and ensure the de facto secession of Republika Srpska”.

Its “operation could push the leaders of the Bosniak population to strengthen their capacities in defense of their own interests, and possibly lead to violent conflicts, which could defeat peacekeeping forces”, American intelligence also said.

Dodik, who is sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom because of the destabilising “state”, said Republika Srpska “does not plan a division or endangering of peace and stability”.

In a post on the X platform, following the publication of the US intelligence report, Dodik said that “America wants a new hot hearth, in which one of the most unsuccessful presidents in American history [Joe Biden] could win a point ahead of the” elections.

He also said that “will not allow people's safety to be endangered”.

But, according to observers, the West should have the most alert approach” to what is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because the situation may quickly emerge “out of control”.

They say Dodik's warnings are not a new thing, but that they come at a new geopolitical moment on one side of the world the war in Ukraine, on the other, the Gaza war.

Vesko Garchevic, professor of International Relations Practice at Boston University.

“If something happens in Bosnia and Herzegovina, if Dodik feels encouraged to organise an independence referendum and declare Republika Srpska an independent state, this would likely lead to a chain reaction in the region. Then, we can expect something similar, or instability and escalation of the situation even in Kosovo”, he told Radio Free Europe.

Dodik is an ally with Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since Russia has begun its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Dodik has met Putin four times last month.