FAZ's Martens warns the EU of Vuciqi: Prepare, Serbia can operate in Kosovo

He listed all indicators for such a danger. Martnes says one of the lessons to be learned from the war in Ukraine is that if politicians speak, they should be taken seriously.

Here, he mentions Vladmir Putin's warnings showing that Russia would attack Ukraine, where most did not listen or take Putin seriously with the reasoning that “are only words” and “ai will destroy his economy”.

Today we all know the best”, Martens wrote, Gazta Express reports.

German journalist further writes that Alexander Vuciq is not Putin and that Serbia differs from Russia in political, geographical and economic terms.

“Unlike the Russian dictator, Vuciq has not lost contact with reality”, writes Martens. He says the Serbian president fully understands the proportion of powers in the world.

Martens has listed the reasons why it is very important to be heard and taken seriously when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks. Here, he cites an example of Vuciq expressing admiration for power in Azerbaijan and the way Ilham Aliyev addressed the issue of retaking the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Express reports.

Martens cites an interview given in December 2023, when he says that “Ilham Aliyev's father, Guydar, ended the conflict in the 1990s. I've been following what's been going on over there for a long time and I've conveyed what weapons have been used to turn Karabakh”.

German journalist adds a quote in Vuciq's interview showing how Gaius had accepted humiliating conditions in 1994 because he had to and how his son waited for more than 20 years for a more favorable opportunity.

The conclusion is that Gaius accepted humiliating conditions in 1994, because they had to. He realized that he was much weaker. And he waited for 10 years. Then his son (...) waited 17 years for an opportunity. Twenty years and more passed, they expected favourable opportunity”, Martens quoted the Serbian president's words.

According to him, Alexander Vuciq's parallel is clear. According to German journalist, Vucinic's statement about what Azerbaijan has done with Nagorno-Karabakh is projection for Serbia-Kosovo report

“In 1999, Serbia, with a new Vucinac as part of the government, accepted humiliating conditions because it was needed. Belgrade realized it was too weak. Since then Serbia had to wait for “the most favourable option”, like Azerbaijan”, writes Martens.

Martens, however, says that Vuciq had not stressed to the audience the similarities between Karabakh and Kosovo, since they were clear to everyone.

“Should be blind or deaf (or not know anything about the recent history of the Balkans) not to understand it”, Martens wrote.

German journalist also mentions another Vuciq interview for “Sputnik”, where according to Martens, Vuciq was even clearer and detailed in the parallels between Azerbaijan and Kosovo. However, it says Vuciq has not mentioned Kosovo in an extenuously since it was clear to his audience.

For this interview in Sputnik, Martens shows how Vuciq has shown how in the 1990s Azerbejdjani has simply been too weak to fight against Armenia and Russia as its defence power.

But Azerbejxajan did everything to”, added Vuciq away, showing how the administrative state later strengthened the economy, army and, above all, special forces.

Then Azerbaijan waited patiently for many years for a change in geopolitical environment, only for its special forces to strike when the time came. “When you see that you have no strength, you must accept all attacks on your back”, Martens quoted Vuciqi's words where the Serbian president mentions even the way to achieve the same outcome.

“Please accept what you must accept and wait for the moment when you can achieve a different”, Vuciq said.

Martens further says Azerbaijani's example is very popular in the nationalist part of the elite in Serbia, and that it has been cited as an example of how “Kosovo may not be completely lost, at the end of the”, says Express.

Here Martens brings the statements of former Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, politically insignificant but who, according to German journalist, is not even about the line of thought.

On the contrary, it is representation for nationalist opinion in Serbia”, Martens writes.

He further shows how Jeremic, explaining how a decade ago the case of Nagorno Karabakh looked closed and how people have said that no azer s quite lived there.

But 10 years later the opposite happened. Lesson: International circumstances change”, Martens quotes the former Serbian diplomat's words.

FAZ's Michael Martens further argues from another angle, citing the fact that Serbia produces weapons that through intermediaries are ending up in the hands of the Ukrainian Army.

Here German journalist mentions G-2000 a long-range, world-long missile within its calibre, which manufacturers proudly speak of.

Martens has also cited a local source that has ties to Belgrade, however, without having managed to verify what this source has said about Serbian ammunition used in Ukraine.

“A local well-connected source in Belgrade recently even told me that Serbian ammunition in Ukraine has proved to have a much higher degree of precision than the ammunition from Bulgaria. I have no way of verifying this, but the source really knows the facts and numbers”, writes Martens.

Martens says Serbia is seen as an important and reliable partner in supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammunition and points out that this on the other side creates maneuvering space for Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq in the internal and regional respect, and according to Martens Vuciq is using it very wisely.

Martens returns to Kosovo and says maybe people can say the US has its base in Bondsteel and that Serbia will dare intervene militarily in northern Kosovo. The FAZ journalist says this is probably true, however, questions whether this would continue to be valid if Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term.

He says that to have a mirror of what could potentially happen to the region in case Trump returns, we need to see what Richard Green writes in <x0itter” for Kosovo and Serbia and imagine what will mean for these two countries if he becomes Secretary of State.

At the end of the Martens says it's no wonder Alexander Vuciq personally honored Richard Greenelli.

This is what you do with friends. Especially with those you can still need”, Martins wrote.

He says that no one knows what will happen to the U.S. elections and who will win, but says that if Trump wins and makes Richard Green or any same Secretary of State, then the region must prepare for influence.

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, such as Yerenelli base line; “Good Christians, bad Muslims. ””, writes Martens,

Finally, FAZ journalist, who has a long experience and recognition with the region, says that if the geopolitical situation changes, and if Vuciq believes they are the right conditions to act in Kosovo without causing much damage to the Serbian economy, then that could happen.

“Notice his emphasis on the importance of the creation of special forces”, Martens writes.

It finally gives an advice to the EU to prepare politically, economically and militarily for such a potential development in the Balkans or “will be occupied by events that could have seen them coming, but that schei saw”.

German journalist says that neither in the Serbian opposition should be calculated, since part of it says it repeats Serbian nationalist lines in Kosovo as parrots and others blame the West for their lack of importance.

For now, this is hopeless”, German FAZ journalist Michael Martens concludes.

In August 2022, I argued that a new war was not playing in the Balkans. That was right at the time, but now, in Febbery 2024, this association should be partyly revised. Bloodshed in Kosovo might be in the cards brought in. Here are the main indicators:https://t.co/aiIO5A4fVa

Michael Martens (@Andric1961) Febright 5, 2024