This year could determine the fate of war in Ukraine

On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a harsh speech, changing the minds of many people who have believed that Russia will not begin full - scale invasion in Ukraine.

Less than 72 hours later, Russian missiles have been launched into Ukrainian territory, and Russian military forces have crossed the border.

According to Western intelligence, Putin has believed that Ukraine will conquer Ukraine within weeks, if not days.

That's not what happened, and now the war has been two years. Will it end in the third year?

Probably not. But a stalemate in the talks could be deceptive, as it calls on Kiev's own supporters to the current situation at a time when a very important factor of war has been questioned: Western military aid to Kiev.

It's always dangerous to make predictions, but it's hard to imagine that the war will be over by the end of 2024<18x1>, said Ruth Deyermon, a legalist at the Department for War Studies at King College in London.

“Sic are things now, neither side seems to have the capacity for a decisive defeat of the other side. To achieve this, there must be a radical change of external factors, especially when it comes to the level of support that the West is offering”, Deyermond said in some response to Radio Free Europe.

“Of course, more Western-side support will help Ukraine make progress to release territory”, it added, “as a fade of Western support would result in a Ukraine complying with conditions set by Russia in peace talks”.

Olga Olicker, director of the Europe and Central Asia programme in the International Crisis Group, has been more direct in assessments.

If Ukraine remains without weapons and people, yes, the war will end next year”, Olicker said in a telephone interview.

There is always the possibility that the handover of one side will end the” war, she said.

And if you're left without weapons and people, there aren't many other options”.

The Rise of War Waves

The situation in war has changed several times since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Overall, 2022 was Ukraine's year, as it has surprised the whole world by surviving them but also by sincerely fighting Russia around Kiev in the early weeks of the war.

Later, Ukrainian defence forces have succeeded in restoring large portions of territories around Harkive and Herson.

In 2023, a long-awaited Kiev offensive, launched in June, has failed to produce the target results, to penetrate the <x0).

In an interview published by The Economist on November 1st, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces at the time, General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, has described the situation on the battlefield as “nderc” words that some in Ukraine have left the taste of defeat, including in Ukrainian President Volody); Zelensky.

Things have changed since then, less on the battlefield, but more in Washington, as another kind of drive there poses a threat to Ukrainian protection.

About two weeks before Zuluzhniy's statements, which may have contributed to his dismissal this month, US President Joe Biden has proposed military assistance to Ukraine in value of $60 billion, mainly for weapons.

Four months later, after much discussion of disagreements at the U.S. Congress and the republican blockade, the aid package has not been adopted, nor is it known when such a thing could happen.

On the battlefield, the sound of firearms in Ukraine is fading every time the weapons are down, and the situation around Avdivkas is nothing like a cramp.

After many months of fighting, Russian military forces have captured this destroyed city of Donbas.

Growth of self-confidence?

As in the long battle for Bahmut, the victory at Avdivka has cost Russia much, with the loss of soldiers and weapons.

However, this victory goes to the benefit of Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly before the March 15th-17th presidential elections, which are expected to secure another six years in power, and may have increased confidence in the war.

This result may have opened Moscow's way to further rest of its territory.

“If Russian forces continue to advance beyond the Avdivkas and gain control of the transport network, including the west of Bahmut, they will pose a threat to a more strategic location, Pokrovski, about 80km away from”, military analyst Dara Massicot, senior researcher at the Carnegie” International Peace Institute, said earlier as Twitter, on February 20th.

The training of Russian military leaders and their views will convince them that now is the time for objective realisation: Ukrainian units lack ammunition and the number of soldiers, American aid is being delayed”, and the West has not yet met the targets for ammunition production, Massicoot wrote.

If the United States does not offer additional military assistance, then Ukrainian military capacities will deteriorate”, Mark Canciaan, military analyst at the Centre for International Strategic Studies in Washington, has said through an email.

“in that situation, I expect them to agree to a kind of negotiated ceasefire, allowing Russia to invade the territory seized”.

American military aid has experienced the pect last summer at around $1.4 billion a month, while the amount of military equipment sent to Ukraine will be reduced by 80 to 90 percent by the summer of 2024, if Congress does not approve a new aid package, Canciaan told Radio Free Europe earlier this month.

However, even if reduced American aid and other factors lead to pause, they are not expected to influence the end of the war this year.

One reason is that Ukraine “is extremely focused on reconstruction and protection against the ongoing Russian” attacks, Massicot analysts, Michel Cofman and Rob Lee have said in a comment published on the war situation after the 2023 counteroffensive.

According to them, despite the level of Western aid, Kiev is determined to avoid any agreement that would cement territorial victories from Russia's side, even provisional ones.

Another factor is that despite Avdevka's capture, it is still unclear how deep Russian forces can penetrate in 2024.

Ukrainian intelligence chief General Kyrylo Budanov has told the American daily The Wall Street Journal that Russian forces “do not have the strength to achieve” to achieve what he considered their strategic goal, to take over the Donjeck and Luhansk regions which make up Donbasin ú in their entirety this year.

Meanwhile, analysts have said that for Russia, maintaining the territory it now controls, and catching another part in the east and south, it is only part of the plan, as there are other ambitions that require more time to be fulfilled.

“Russia still targets the submission of Ukraine, and now believes it is gaining”, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, military analysts at Britain-based Royal United Services Institute, have said in a comment they published on February 13th.

“Under terms of surrender now proposing to Russian mediators is included for Ukraine to give up control over Russia's occupied territory, including Harkivin, in some versions also included Odessa, to agree that it will not join NATO, and have a head of state adopted by Russia”.

Russia hopes that all of this gets through a three-stage process, has written Watling and Reynolds:

-soaking Ukraine of all the ammunition, keeping the front line under constant pressure,

-“breaking the international partners' determination to send military assistance to Kiev”, and

-by marking victory on the battlefield, “that could be used against Kiev, forcing it to surrender under terms set by Russia”.

“Planifications for application of these objectives show that they predict victory to be achieved in 2026”, they wrote.

The most important part of the equation is that Russia can increase ambitions and that in a short period of time.

After nearly a quarter in power, Putin's goals have changed, depending on the advantages or the returns he has had.

It is important to mention that Russia's goals can be expanded, depending on success”, RUSSIA analysts have said, and “considering that the Kremlin has violated almost all important agreements with Ukraine and NATO, there is no guarantee that even if Russia gets everything it wants out of negotiations, it will not stop until it conquers all Ukraine, or is forced to use force elsewhere<3>

On the other hand, Russia's failure to mark fundamental progress in 2024 will mean that success in the future will be very difficult.

The key point here is Western aid.

Russia's “Theoria of victory is possible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly supply Ukrainian Army”, Watling and Reynolds have written.

“However, if Ukraine's partners continue to offer sufficient ammunition and support training to cope with Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia has little chance of marking major progress in 2025. If Russia sees no chance of victory in 2025, then it can hardly force Kiev to surrender in 2026”.

Other analysts agree that what will happen this year will determine the course of war.

The current decisions will determine whether the Ukrainian Army has enough resources to hold the positions it has in 2024 to repel Russian attacks and rebuild force for 2025 and beyond”, Massicot told Radio Free Europe.

The signs show that the fighting will continue until at least the beginning of 2025x1>, Deyermond said.

“What happens next, including how quickly and under what circumstances the war ends, will depend on what happens this year”. / REL/