Dark prognosis by man who predicted war in Ukraine and Gaza

In an interview for the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, talking about the choice between Joseph Biden and Donald Trump in the January elections and the question of who is best for the US and West, he said that American voters are ahead of a difficult decision.

If they choose Biden, they can save the republic, but they will almost certainly lose the empire and bets are almost as high in the event of Trump's victory, Ferguson estimates.

“Another Benden mandate will seal America's fall as superpower and end the “Pax Americana” They manage to save the empire because America's enemies are far more afraid of Donald Trump than Joe Biden,” said Ferguson.

On the other hand, as he says, the United States is a very stable democracy, which can certainly survive Trump's second mandate.

Asked what are the three most catastrophic decisions Trump can make if he becomes president again, Ferguson puts NATO's departure first.

While Trump was president, he says, he made it clear that he sees allies as “breathing” that receive only from the US and gives nothing in return.

Second, he stresses that he is sure Ukraine would lose Trump to the White House, which he believes would be a disaster.

Perhaps this is already the case because funds have been blocked due to opposition in the House of Representatives. In my opinion, it would be a disaster if Ukraine loses its fight against Russia. This would lead to a completely new security situation in Europe and forcing all European countries to significantly increase their defence budgets, for which they are not politically positioned”, Ferguson points out.

However, the Taiwan issue stands out as the most serious problem of Trump's new mandate. Ferguson warns that Trump may not worry at all.

If you read the memories of (former Trump adviser) John Bolton, Trump is essentially indifferent to Taiwan. So one possibility is that Trump tells China, you can do to Taiwan what you did to Hong Kong. I don't care. Let's talk about fees. But if you look at the rhetoric of the campaign, he criticises Beden for his gentle behavior with China. So the Trump administration can actually take a more restrictive approach. Then we may find ourselves in the conflict that I have long warned of”, Ferguson adds.

He also stresses that the rest of the world must also be prepared for Trump's victory scenario. In this direction, Ferguson points out, Europe must seriously deal with strategic autonomy, for which the French president began insisting long ago, which is far from realising HINA Japan, he says, is closer to strategic autonomy than European NATO members.

It is time for European countries, large and small, to take their protection seriously because they can no longer assume there will always be an American guarantor of their national security. Indo-Peace, Japan, South Korea and others must make a decision on whether to accept Chinese domination and prepare for it. He will try to persuade the United States to maintain their dominance in the region. Therefore, many will depend on the position of Trump and his national security team”, Ferguson believes.

When it comes to the Middle East, Ferguson claims that Israel should try to eradicate Hamas, but notes Iran is the biggest problem. Almost all bad actors are actually Iranian representatives. Keeping Iran is far more important than restraining Israel. I think Israel is already very limited by the United States. ”

As a person who predicted the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza when asked what he predicts for the year 2024, he answers that, according to him, Taiwan is the most likely point of conflict.

When the interview author declared that the world is in a “The new Cold War” and that the West can win, Ferguson stresses that first of all new Westerners must explain what defeat looks like.

New people on both sides of the Atlantic are very pleased with freedom. They don't seem to really care. That's because they can't really imagine what it would be like to have no freedom. I wish we could explain better what the world dominated by the Chinese Communist Party is. How would they feel if all our calls and e-mails and every transaction were monitored by a very ideological regime. ”

Also, as he puts it, Western officials should remember one of the lessons of classical history and an eternal truth of power consists of the famous “saying, If you want peace, prepare for war”.

The third is the lesson that, as he says, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the newly deceased, interpreted in the 1970s and, according to Ferguson, still applies today, and that is the strategy for the deployment.

This means that we're not pretending that China and Russia are becoming the good guys. We know them as enemies they are. And we are aware that their intentions are almost always malicious. But we're trying to engage them in a way that buys time, and this is the time we need most. It will take at least ten years before Europe can be protected more reliablely. It will take ten years for the United States to modernise its increasingly older military capabilities. It takes ten years for Taiwan to be successfully protected against Chinese aggression. We need time”.