What does Trump's victory mean for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?

And this mist also applies to the approach his administration will have towards the process of dialogue for normalisation of reports between Kosovo and Serbia, which is mediated by the European Union.

Contacters of political issues in Kosovo, Serbia and Europe say they do not expect the issue of Brussels' dialogue to be high on its agenda when Trump receives his second presidential mandate on January 20th, 2025.

According to them, he has more priority topics before him, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which he has vowed to end.

Donika Emine, from the Balkan Policy Consultative Group in Europe (BIEPAG), tells Radio Free Europe that, despite the uncertainties created about policies that will have Trump towards the European continent, “most likely to have active US involvement in the” process of dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.

She, even, expects the US and the EU to push for progress in dialogue, but also continued pressure.

The “issue will be brought back to the Association, the issue will return again to agreements Kosovo has pledged to implement. The way it is to navigate in relation to Serbia and Kosovo is unknown, but no major change is expected in relation to the pressure Kosovo has been put up to these questions to date, says Emini.

The US and the EU repeatedly urge the parties to implement the agreements reached, while Kosovo has been facing constant pressure to establish the Association of Serb-run municipalities.

Dusan Janjic, from the Forum for Ethnic Relations in Belgrade, says that despite the dialogue being expected to be a priority for Trump, this does not mean that the overall “framework for normalisation negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia will be jeopardised.

He declares to Radio Free Europe that it is certain that Trump will undertake the “initiative to cut [negotiation] procedures “that have started in 2011, adding that a more effective method for signing individual agreements” will be found.

Previous Differences

Role in the extent of Trump's administration's involvement in resolving open issues between Kosovo and Serbia will also play the previous events, as well as persons involved in interaction with Kosovo during Trump's first term as US president.

The “will depend on whether the top officials involved in the issue between Kosovo and Serbia during the first term of Trump [2017-2020], separately Richard Green, will take office in foreign policy or take any other position in the new administration”, says Bodo Weber, senior associate with the non-governmental Council for Democratic Policy in Berlin, in a campaign for Radio Free Europe.

Grenelli, a close associate of Trump, the world was also a US envoy to the Western Balkan region. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti had had a series of disputes with Grenelli, who had named the Kosovo chief of executive as <x0). Meanwhile, Kurt had claimed that the American emissary was involved in the collapse of his first government in March 2020.

There were major tensions in 2020, especially with Yerenelli. So all these tensions, even on the individual level, can reflect on policies, on the approach the US will have in Europe, and specifically on the Kosovo-Serbia” dialogue, says Donika Emine.

According to her, Kurt's participation in the U.S. Democrat Assembly may also cause trouble during the US election campaign. But, she says Kosovo needs a proactive approach to navigate in such a situation, adding that it hopes “that Kosovo will be constructive and that this constructiveity will reflect on the other side of” as well.

Meanwhile, Serbia, according to her, has been working and lobbiing in the US over the past four years, and has hoped Trump will return to power. But, Amy considers that Belgrade's proximity to China which Trump constantly criticises may be problematic.

Will the exchange of territories be rectified?

Another issue that can be reactualized is the issue of exchange of territories. Weber says the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vuciq, could use “the return of the Trump to the White House to lobby to the US for an ethno-territorial solution”.

This topic, opposed by Kurti, was highly discussed during Trump's first term, and was mentioned by officials in Kosovo and Serbia as a way to reach a final agreement.

Even Amy doesn't rule out the possibility of restoring this subject. It says all issues may be open to discussion, due to non-founding Association or progress in dialogue.

Trump, according to connoisseurs, may also require that the agreement on economic normalisation be implemented, reached with Kosovo and Serbia at the White House in 2020.

Weber says he expects Trump to engage in the Balkans with ties of agreements that focus trade and economy. / REL/