Michel: Past conflicts not imported into EU

European Council President Charles Michel expressed his view of expanding the European Union at the Black Strategic Forum on August 28th: “I believe that, on both sides, we should be ready to expand by 2030”.

He expressed confidence that “is the time to get rid of confusion. It is time to face challenges with clarity and honesty. To be reliable, I believe we need to talk about the timing and homework of”.

Now, this is challenging. EU enlargement has stalled since Croatia joined the bloc a decade ago.

Michel himself noted some of the challenges: establishing an independent judiciary, fighting corruption and organised crime. But, he also stressed being nearly economically, noting that, currently, gross domestic production (GDP) of future member states is about 50-70 percent of the EU's smaller economy. And at the beginning of that, something that is becoming increasingly important for the EU is bringing foreign policy closer to that of the bloc.

“We need to make sure that past conflicts are not imported to the EU”, said Michel at the Bled Forum, where representatives of Western Balkan countries who aspire to membership in the European bloc were present.

A way for this could be to increase a so-called confidence clause in membership treaties to ensure that member states cannot block future member states”, Michel said.

That's okay, but what happens to member states that already block the process?

It is about Greece, France and Bulgaria, which, in various phases, have blocked the northern Macedonia path to the EU due to bilateral issues and/or domestic policy.

Michel said against giving up the EU unanimous rule, noting that “unity is the essence of EU force”.

Instead, he cited several concepts that have already been discussed in the Brussels counties, such as “abstenct constructive”. This was used when the EU decided to finance weapons shipments to Ukraine. And, basically, it means that a member state may not vote on the particular issue either veto or puts it up.

However, when a talk like this is analyzed, it is worth remembering. The first rule in Brussels on the issue of enlargement is as follows: the assumption of future expansions is a “budallai” game. It's been done before and it's always been a very optimistic game.

In a European Commission strategy for the Western Balkans, 2018, it has been said that Montenegro and Serbia should be ready for EU membership in 2025, while Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Northern Macedonia will have to advance well on this road by that time.

Now the autumn of 2023 is beginning, and it is clear that none of these countries will be a member within two years.

It is also noteworthy that such predictions are likely to be heard more in the near future. Why? For two main reasons: first, because EU enlargement is “approaching” again. Even Western EU member states that have once been more hesitant towards enlargement are now on the way.

EU leaders will discuss how a larger EU can function when they meet in Brussels in October and December. They are likely to make decisions that will further the accession process, such as. Give the green light to Ukraine and Moldova to start accession talks, possibly for Georgia to become a candidate country and, potentially, Albania and Northern Macedonia to begin opening different negotiating chapters, following a screening process that has lasted nearly 18 months.

The second reason is that the mandate of some in the EU, including Michelin, is coming to an end. Next year, at this time, he will no longer be president of the European Council. It may resurface as Belgian prime minister, but the likelihood is it is not at any decision-making capacity for EU enlargement on the eve or around 2030. In other words, he may be very ambitious now and say more things, but the decision does not belong to him.

It would not be surprising whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyeen will also make a positive statement on EU enlargement in her annual speech on the European Union's situation, which will be held in the European Parliament on 13 September, as it may be her last speech ú unless it is renamed in the summer of 2024.

But despite scepticism and doubt, one positive aspect is worth noting: if Michel, who is constantly in touch with leaders of the 27 member states, felt sure to hold such a positive talk on EU enlargement, then enlargement can be really at a turning point.

Elections, economic downturns and other unforeseen events may appear constantly, but, at least, some minor steps in this direction can be expected in the coming months. Just don't ask for deadlines!