Schmitt: For Russia, escalation of the situation in the north is a gift

Scientific director of the Balkan Research Department of the Austrian Academy of Sciences Oliver Jens Schmitt says: These riots were led by neighbouring Serbia. In an interview, Schmitt explains why, how things can continue and what the EU should do now.

Schmitt: Yes, especially in terms of the domestic political situation in Serbia. In recent weeks there have been massive demonstrations comparable to those that led to the overthrow of then-President Slobodan Milosevic more than 20 years ago. Serbian President Alexander Vuciq is under great pressure. Current events in Kosovo are a political gift to him. He can only say, our countrymen are in danger, we must now unite the ranks. In this direction, he set all the levers in motion, he deployed the army at the border and used his bandits against KFOR troops.

T-online: His bandits?

T-online: France, first of all, sees the Kosovo Government responsible, but even the US defence power was clearly expressed, and called on Prime Minister Albin Kurti for calm.

Schmitt: Kurt is consistent and from his point of view he only acts logically. He had held the elections, while the Serb population did not participate, but the small minority of Albanian citizens in these areas participated. This is certainly a legalist attitude.

T-online: Although elections were held democraticly, Kurt accompanied mayors to the area with police. This is not exactly escalation.

Schmitt: Kurt was elected with a promise to enforce rule of law. He differs in this report with his ancestors. For him, it's a matter of principle.

T-online: But what has he already turned France and the United States against?

Schmitt: Of course, problematic for Kurti is that he is now the first Kosovo prime minister to risk a conflict with the United States, his country's defence power. This can certainly weaken it within the country, even if the opposition is currently a bit obvious. France is less important on the issue: its governments have not been very involved in the Western Balkans, they have always been cautious towards Kosovo Albanians. I find it surprising that the US and France are now relatively biased, blaming Kosovo and hardly criticised Serbia.

T-online: What do you think, why is that?

Schmitt: This is a logical continuation of the politics of past decades. Americans, but also the German government of Angela Merkel, for years count on Vuciqi and its “stabilocracy”. People seem to think: better to have an authoritarian ruler capable of entering a pact than a democratic politician with whom he may not have such good relations. This is essential, especially in terms of the Kosovo issue. When it comes to such sensitive issues, it is better to find a solution with authoritarian politicians rather than moderate forces that later fall under massive internal pressure. This doctrine applies to Vucinqi for many years. He never succeeded, only always played with the EU's hope.

T-online: Such expectations were held even in the spring, when Serbia and Kosovo, under EU leadership, agreed to an agreement on normalising relations. What's gone wrong since then?

Schmitt: The question is: How sincerely are both parties interested in a solution? For example, Kurti is skeptical of the plan that Serbian territories should become more autonomous, even if the Kosovo Parliament has already approved this plan. He wants to prevent a state from being formed within the state. And for Serbia, Kosovo is a political leverage to exert political pressure on the West. If Vuciq gives up, he loses importance. The EU would be advised better to pressure Serbia because it also has pressure levers in its hands.

T-online: Like what?

Schmitt: It would suffice to threaten the withdrawal of visa liberalisation for Serbia. This would have catastrophic consequences for Vucinqi. Many of his countrymen live abroad and depend on rowing forward and backward and take this as good. Another leverage would be the economy, Serbia is largely dependent on the EU. Because you must remember: The Serbian government under Vucinqi is becoming massively anti-Western. The media are full of Russian deninforms and propaganda.

T-online: Serbia maintains close relations with Russia, and both countries are also ideologically close. Does the Kremlin play a role in the current situation?

Schmitt: For Russia, this escalation is a gift. The Kremlin is interested in opening as many fronts as possible against the EU. Serbia continues to play. Vuciq keeps the conflicts in the Balkans at bay, not only in Kosovo, but also in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the West would do well to assess this system impartially and to consider who is being held in power, with unclear hopes of resolving the Kosovo conflict that has not happened all these years. After all, the West supports an authoritarian ruler with good relations with Russia and China, which constantly provokes the West. Apparently, this has been accepted as collateral damage in the hope that this man will be better able than other political forces in Serbia. However, this policy blocks any form of democratisation and weakens all those people who want democratic changes in Serbia. This Western policy of Serbia is wrong.

T-online: According to observers, the situation in Kosovo is currently more uncertain than it has been for years. Will it continue to escalate?

Schmitt: Wuciq knows exactly where the boundaries are. Controld protesters who wound KFOR officers appear to be on another level at which the EU is not ready to respond more sharply. Anything beyond that, such as the entry of Serbian soldiers into Kosovo soil, would cause a escalation. The US has troops in Kosovo who will not tolerate this. And in such a confrontation, Serbia can only lose. /Democracy