After the Prigoshin Putin rebellion, he no longer seems immune

From rebellion to retreat within 24 hours of the uprising of Wagner's body head, Prigoshin reveals the weaknesses of Putin's ruling system. How will it be further carried out after the weekend rebellion?

The rebellion of Wagner's body was the rebellion of a self - created monster, writes Tagesschau in an analysis of it (25.0.6). Vladimir Putin has been supporting the establishment of private armies in Russia for years, and Wagner's troops have been the biggest and strongest among them. For Putin, this was an appropriate construction for a long time. A well-trained body of recruits used in conflicts such as Mali, Libya or other countries to strengthen Russia's influence and its strategic claims. At the same time, Russia could deny that it was part of these conflicts. For Wagner the body was created a tempting financial model, which helped it to have access to conflict zones even in the first gold-like materials.

Putin Model of private armies failed

But the fight against Ukraine turned Wagner's body into an internal political factor. Its leader, Yevgeni Prigosin, recruited fighters in prisons and aided the Russian army with additional forces. His warriors were more motivated in Ukraine, and Prigoshin let him know his opinion in Russia. If so, this is something else, Russian army generals themselves always questioned it. But in the meantime Prigosin was unable to control any more, the conflict with Russian Army leaders, Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valeri Gerasimov, from autumn onward -- to likely Russian Army attacks on Wagner dealt with a conflict Saturday (24.06). Private armies function on the basis of playfulness and subordination in the existing system. How much such groupings can be independent by risking the system itself, Saturday's developments very clearly demonstrated.

Körber Foundation expert for Russia Leslie Schübel says about ARD, that's the “end of the Wagner group, and we will no longer see the past in fighting in Ukraine. Other fighters will either re-enter the Ministry of Defence with new contracts, certainly not participate in the fighting in Ukraine anymore. At the moment, however, it is unclear how developments will turn out. ”

Freedom of Army and Information Services

Within less than 24 hours, Prigos ' troops reportedly approached Moscow about 200km. They did not face any great resistance. It is unknown, if their march had continued at this pace, but it is known, that important military bases, such as in Rostov, his soldiers arrived to receive without major problems. One reason for this is that the Russian army has a large part of soldiers in Ukraine or in border regions. Quick progress is an indication of what the domestic defence situation is like. The uprising is also a failure for intelligence services, they apparently failed to identify the uprising on Saturday. According to media data, U.S. secret services a few days ago learned about specific preparations and informed members of the American Congress. The Russian troops found the rebellion unprepared.

Cut as an alternative?

When parts of the army rose up against then president of the Soviet Union in 1992, Mihail Gorvatchev, the people were against the pimps. No reports came from Rostov and Voronesh on Saturday about objections from Prigosin troops. Social media videos have shown more people welcoming bodies and expressing approval. Although such videos cannot be verified they can be a signal that troops and Prigos are seen as an alternative to the dissatisfied in Russia. One factor may be that Prigos always showed himself on the front line, unlike Russian army leaders.

Prigosin troops are perceived in Russia as successful and ultranationalist brutal warriors. This combination seems to affect many Russians. The opposition is persecuted, nationalism is desirable, so was Putin's non-direct message. That's what creates space for actors like Prigos, as long as they respect game rules. The weekend uprising showed that this model has its risks and limits.

Saturday's effects will be shown in coming weeks

Putin has been following after them for several months without commenting on claims raised by Prigos and harsh criticism against the publicly-made Russian Army. On the day of the revolt, he did not even mention Prigos and his troops by name. His statement about “his back-to-back” went unanswered. Now they have to integrate, as planned, into the Russian Army, if they want it. Putin in this conflict appeared indecisive and reluctant, unlike the image of the determined leader he presents and makes a lot of it preserve.

So far Putin's power was based on the promise of stability: a slightly functioning state, which its citizens more or less offer a certain level of any minimum of living, in turn, citizens allowed it to make its policy. This model has broken. Putin relied on official and non-official intelligence services has so far been the balanced factor among competitive interests, and this model is no longer functioning as before, as indicated by Prigos' uprising, even though he, in his words, is not directed against Putin but against the military leadership. But it is no longer certain that Putin after June 24th could keep service rivalries under control.

What this means for Putin's medium-term rule is not known. The Russian president, according to observer estimates, wants to be re-elected next year. He also changed his constitution in 2020. You don't know if this plan works. The consequences of Saturday will be shown in the coming weeks. With Saturday's uprising against Putin, his regime's last chance is for most visible citizens. The thought, that there could be another president besides Putin, has entered people's minds, says Körber Foundation expert Leslie Schübel. /dw