What are the consequences Kosovo can face from the US and the EU?

May we hope that [visited] visa liberalisation” with European countries, former Kosovo Free Europe Ambassador to the US Avni Spahiu tells Radio Europe.

For tensions in the north, respectively, ignoring US advice regarding the necessary steps there, Kosovo has already been excluded from a major military exercise, led by the US to Europe.

Despite the international community's calls, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, It has not attracted the police and Albanian leaders from the country's northern, Serb-run majority.

Protests there still continue have erupted since May 26th, when Kosovo police have helped Albanian mayors Zvecan, Zubin Potok and Leposaviq enter municipal facilities, despite resistance by local residents.

The April 23rd elections from which these mayors have emerged have been boycotted by the Serb community.

The US special envoy to the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, has asked Kurti to withdraw leaders and police from the north and organise new local elections.

The European Union has made similar demands.

While there is no response from Kurti about them, Escobar has said the “lack of co-operation from him will have consequences in Kosovo's relations with the Euro-Atlantic community. Similar warnings have been made by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

What can be the result?

The United States and the European Union are in a voice on this issue. As ordinary, after the measures Washington warns, measures coming from the European Union follow. What they will be, I cannot say at this moment, I hope they are not something that will harm the people of Kosovo and the state of Kosovo”, Spahiu tells Radio Free Europe.

“Hopefully not visa liberalisation”, he adds as he talks about the decision expected to take effect on January 1st, 2024.

Spahiu says the consequences can also be reflected in Kosovo's application for membership in the Council of Europe.

A step closer to that membership, Kosovo has taken it in April.

Spahiu warns that without support from international allies, especially the US, Kosovo will not be able to move forward.

We are not yet a completely consolidated state, we have sovereignty problems, such as the north, and many other aspects of our international presence in other institutions... We need our friends' help, especially in the United States. If this friendship fluctuates, the interests of Kosovo will be damaged”, the former Kosovo diplomat says.

What could be the consequences of the EU?

Former Kosovo Minister of Foreign Affairs Petrit Selimi said at least three EU member states are considering suspending IPA funds and visa liberalisation for Kosovo.

The IPA funds are intended to help countries that are in the process of EU membership. Within the framework of this programme, the Government of Kosovo and the EU have signed a 75m-euro financial agreement to be used in the energy sector in February.

Selimi said this is his information:

“The latest information from discussions within the EU: At least 3 EU member states (will not mention here) are considering the requirement for suspending IPA funds and visa liberalisation for Kosovo”, he wrote on Twitter on May 31st.

REL sources in Brussels say that failure to meet obligations in the process of normalising the situation in the north “will have consequences for Kosovo in the EU integration process and in financial terms”, but do not specify more.

If it comes to taking measures against Kosovo, The EU will go on escalation them, Demush Shasha says from the Kosovo Institute for European Policy.

“Initially will start with softer measures, such as cutting off regular political exchanges between representatives of Kosovo and the EU. Later, these measures could escalate with the suspension of Kosovo's participation in EU programmes, suspension of access to EU funds, suspension of Kosovo's application for candidate country status [in the EU], down to the suspension of visa liberalisation”, says Shasha for Radio Free Europe.

According to him, the EU, which mediates dialogue on normalising Kosovo-Serbia relations, will initially make efforts “to understand Kosovo's woes and agree to a path ahead of” between Pristina and Belgrade.

Can there be consequences in the economy?

Representatives of businesses in Kosovo say they do not expect economic consequences from the US, but, according to them, the economy is already damaging the situation in the north.

Kosovo found itself on the front lines of world newspapers as a crisis site and this is a big alarm for any business”, says Ilir Ibrahimi, director at the Kosovo Business Club.

The “those who have invested are afraid of the fate of their investment, and those who are meant to invest immediately give up”, he adds.

How things will develop in the days ahead is not clear.

Kurti acknowledged there are challenges in the reports with international amisars, but did not talk about their demands. He said he has offered a stable and secure “exit from the crisis in the north, which, according to him, includes the rule of law in this area and the removal of Serbian “criminal groups” from there.

Kurti has repeatedly insisted that he cannot compromise with the democratic republic”.