Germany will lack millions of workers by 2060

According to expert projections, the number of people on the German labour market by 2060 will probably drop from 45.7 to 40.4 million. According to the Institute for Research of the Labour Market and Professionals (IAB), the potential of the workforce will decrease by 11.7 percent in this period, taking into account factors such as demographic changes, nature, immigration and immigration. “The results show that companies will evidently have fewer workers available in the coming decades,” says IAB economist Enzo Weber.

More Women and Older in the Work Market

This assessment takes into account numerous external countermass and factors, such as economic and demographic developments abroad, as well as fertility. Without these measures, the number of available workers on the market will be even smaller. According to the study, only the employment rate of women and elderly people will develop positively in the years to come.
For German women under 55 years of age, experts assume that the rate will rise from 87 percent to 93 percent, while for women of foreign origin from 67 to 77 percent. The estimates are based on the assumption that fertility will increase from 1.5 to 1.7 children per woman.

The third countries are becoming increasingly important for the EU when it comes to migration for employment motives. So barriers have to be removed, but at the same time more needs to be done to ensure that migrants gain some ground in the labour market and find long-term prospects in Germany”, says Weber.

Will the Population Come Down?

According to the study, immigration from EU countries, such as Poland or Romania, will be significantly reduced. While an average of 900,000 people from EU countries came to Germany in the last ten years, in 2060, according to the study, it will be only 600,000.

On the other hand, immigration from third countries will increase from 240,000 people per year. But immigration from Germany must also be taken into account: According to estimates, of the current 750,000, it will reach one million people leaving the country each year.

According to estimates, only 72.6 million people will live in Germany in 2060, about ten million less than today. Above all, immigration from other EU countries is likely to drop significantly as living conditions there improve and at the same time demographic situations are sometimes even less favourable than in Germany. / DW