Joseph: Success of Kosovo- Serbia hinges on active EU, US engagement

As a meeting of the chief negotiators approaches next week, analysts agree that for this agreement to be successful, the European Union and the United States must play a central role.

Edward P. Joseph, professor at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, says the agreement on the road to normalisation is both critical and fragile, and for this reason it requires all possible support.

“The US and EU share responsibility and cannot distance themselves from this agreement and cannot direct the finger from Serbia and Kosovo alone, which of course have critical responsibilities, but the United States and the EU have very important responsibilities after that, he says of the Voice of America.

Mr. Joseph says failure would have serious consequences.

If this deal fails, it would be a failure of the United States and the European Union and it would be a victory for Russia and China, I don't know how to make it more clear than this”, he says.

Dr. Majda Ruge, European Council for Foreign Relations expert, agrees that the role of the West is critical.

“So I think that if we don't see a drastic change in the level of monitoring pressure from the European Union and the United States, especially towards Serbia, I don't think we will see much movement before”, she says about the Voice of America.

Both the US and the EU stress that the agreement is very important for the Euro-Atlantic future of both countries. In an interview for Voice of America, Senator Chris Murphy said Washington and Brussels would continue to make it clear that it would be very difficult for any country to join those organisations unless differences between the parties exceed.

But he said the decision ultimately belongs to the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia.

“We think it is in the best interest of Kosovo and Belgrade to implement this agreement. I don't think it's a good policy for foreign powers or entities to force countries to do something they don't want to do or think it's in their best interests. So I don't see this as an issue that the United States offers incentives and consequences. This is simply not useful in my opinion”, he said.

Mr. Joseph disagrees.

This is a big mistake. And I'm really disappointed when I hear very sharp and capable officials in both Europe and the United States using this standard rhetoric, which meets the parties, is in the hands of the parties. No, that's not true. It's just not true. This agreement is called the EU proposal and there are obligations for the EU and the US has promoted it. There should be no such rhetoric”.

According to Mrs. Ruge, it depends on whether the agreement can be considered successful.

“The question is which scenario seems more realistic: is it a failure, given the rhetoric of Aleksandar Vucic's leaders, which essentially said that this agreement has not been reached, or should it be taken to base the interpretation of the European Union and the United States, under which now it has become part of the framework of negotiations (of the EU), that will inevitably push Serbia to engage in the fulfillment of these provisions?”, she says of the Voice of America.

Prof. Joseph says that the West must also act decisively to end doubts about whether the agreement is mandatory or not.

“The EU needs to annul this uncertainty and can do it very simply, recording this agreement at the United Nations”, he says.

Mr. Joseph says that in this way shadows of suspicion are eliminated for respecting obligations on all sides, and would be an encouraging signal to Kosovo.

This is very important because Kosovo has the first step, the big step, a decisive step to take and that, as I have said, is actually early, but it is an obligation and this is the formation of this self-awareness or association, as is called with both appointments. So it is very important to be given confidence and a boost to Kosovo, which has pre-” obligations.

Association is one of the hottest points of debate between the two countries and Western efforts. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic considers it a priority, while Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti says he will never allow the creation of an ethnic-based entity or territorial autonomy.

Dr. Ruge says there is a reason why Prime Minister Kurti does not have any rush to offer Serbia the institutional construction of the Association of Communities that could undermine Kosovo's ability to function.

Because he probably doesn't see any signal that this will bring anything in return, maybe you don't see Kosovo taking anything before engaging in such a step”.

One of Kosovo's main goals is to remove obstacles from Serbia for a broader recognition, a signal for de facto recognition, even though not de jure (that Belgrade has at least publicly shown no sign that it is doing) and membership in international organisations.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that implementation of the agreement would pave the way for the recognition of Kosovo by the five EU nations that have not done so.

“The assumption is that if Serbia agrees, even without recognising Kosovo, not trying to prevent others from either blocking it from membership in some international organisations, or if it somehow doesn't prevent recognition or lobby against recognition of others, this could be accomplished. But I have to say that I'm not yet optimistic in this direction”, she says.

Mr. Joseph says he is disappointed with the attitudes of non-recognisors after this agreement.

“My suggestion to give them a boost is that Ukraine must recognise Kosovo, and that will transform the entire matter”, he says.

While President Vuciq gives priority to the Association, Prime Minister Kurti has said that the urgency of implementation under the agreement is only the issue of forcibly missing persons.

Over a thousand and 600 people result missing during the Kosovo war. Although Western diplomacy is focusing attention on the future of relations, just days ago the anniversary of NATO's campaign revived various memories of the two countries.

Professor Joseph says that many diplomats who go to the region like to say the expression “think of the past, just look at the future”, but adds that this is something very unrealistic.

Could you imagine saying that in Ukraine after the war? Imagine five, 10 years, 20 years after the war, can you imagine going to Ukraine and saying "just forget the past and look to the future with Russia"?

He takes the cause for his comments from an expression of condolences by US Ambassador to Belgrade Chris Hill, for the Serb victims of the NATO bombings, what humanly he says, is understandable.

“Ambassador Hill used exactly the same words Joe Biden used when he went to Belgrade in 2016. Why is that a problem? Because seven years later we see that Vice President Biden's words had no influence in Serbia. Simply Vucic and others said “thank you very much, we are victims””, he said.

While Mr. Joseph thinks that each of the parties should be held accountable, he recalls that former President Hashim Thaci is now in The Hague, along with other former Kosovo Liberation Army leaders, which from the country's citizens is seen as setting the mark of equality with atrocities committed by Serb forces during the war.