Chaos in Sudan also jeopardises neighbours' stability

Now, another bloody struggle for power is destabilizing his southern neighbour, Sudan. On one side is General Abdel Fattah al-Buhan, president of the Sudan military government and army leader, who boasts large numbers of land and air forces. His opponent is General Mohammed Hamad Dazalo, deputy president of Sudan, known as Hamiti, who oversees the Speed Support Forces, one of the largest paramilitary groups in the region.

Both accuse each other of shooting first in clashes that started ten days ago. Hundreds of people have been reported killed, while thousands of others are leaving their homes, especially from the capital city of Cartum.

The two generals, until recently, were allies. They worked together to bring down Sudan's veteran ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Both have led Sudan from 2021, when the country's civil government has collapsed but by their coup.

The dual relationship, however, is even earlier. They have played a key role in military shares against rebels in the separatist Darfur region. The war there began in 2003 and lasted for years. Darfur was later described as the first genocide of the 21st century. And General Hamiti, at the time, was commander of the group, Janjaweed, who was accused of ethnic cleansing and mass rape.

Today, tensions between the two generals have to do with transferring power to a civilian authority and integrating the Force of Fast Support into the military. The main issue is: Who will be commander-in-chief of the military during the integration period?

The African Union has warned that the “conflict could slide into a full-scale” conflict that “would threaten security across the region”.

UN Secretary - General Antonio Guterres has called on warring parties to immediately interrupt the hostilities and start talks on crisis resolution.

The situation has already caused terrible loss of lives, including many civilians. Any further escalation could be devastating to the country and the region”, Guterres has said.

Waled Madibo, founder and president of the Sudan Policy Forum, says of Radio Free Europe's Expose programme that the conflict is heading towards civil war. And according to him, there is no exception to the expansion in neighboring countries.

The Social Base of the Fast Support Forces is in Darfur. Darfur has borders with Chad. In that region - between Darfur and Chad - there are tribal ties and family ties [among people], and war can be spread. It can spread to both Niger and Central African Republic. But it all depends on how the presidents of those countries behave if they choose to intervene in the Sudan” conflict, Madibo says.

Some regional implications have already begun. The paramilitary group, Fast Support Forces, has said that “30 Egyptian soldiers” have surrendered to him. Egypt's army has not denied, nor confirmed, but has said that “is closely following events, in the context of the Egyptian forces presence in Sudan”.

Mohammed Kheir Omer, a Oslo-based African policy researcher, tells of the Expo that Egypt always looks at Sudan as <x0boror of the house”. But because of his strategic position, having access to the Red Sea, and numerous minerals, especially gold, Sudan has long received the attention of even greater power Russia says Omer. According to him, the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, has been present since 2017.

The Wagner Group in Sudan works in mines, especially gold. A large quantity of gold has been smuggled into Russia from Sudan during the war in Ukraine. Sudan's own paramilitary leader Hamiti has been in Moscow when the war in Ukraine has begun. Sudan also has strategic access to the Red Sea. And Russia wants to have military ports at the Red Sea”, Omer says.

Currently, there is no public evidence that Russia is playing any role in the violence in Sudan. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Wagner, the group that also fights in Ukraine, has said on April 18th that no single fighter of his “is now found in Sudan”. Three years ago, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned several companies and employees of Prigozhin, just for their work in Sudan.

The United States is co-ordinating with Arab states to restore stability in this country, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in touch with both generals to convince them to talk.

Mohammed Kheir Omer explains more about the role the international community can play in stopping fighting:

“The US is an important player in Sudan, as is regional powers, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. They have influence in Sudan because even Sudan's paramilitary forces have sent fighters to fight for them to Yemen, starting in 2015”.

On the other hand, the Arab League and the African Union don't think they have much influence, because they don't have any leverage. The Arab League is more likely to lean towards Egypt, and Egypt is on the side of the Sudanese army. So, they're not neutral actors”, Omer says.

Madibo, from the Sudan Policy Forum, says generals at war, currently, do not seem interested in sustainable mediation or ceasefire. According to him, they are only interested in their survival and preservation of their power. But, Madibo adds, neither the international community seems interested enough to intervene, and that will have consequences.

This isn't about Sudan, it's about the safety of the entire Sudanese generation. And it's about Europe's safety. If Sudan turns out to be a failed state, we will see the influx of migrants to Europe. I think the international community should act. Actually, I don't think he wants to act. He wants one of the leaders in Sudan to be exhausted and then deal with it. But this is not the best way to address the” situation, says Madibo.

Neighbors of Sudan, Egypt and South Sudan have offered to intercede. There have also been some initiatives from Kenya and Gibuti, but there are no positive signals yet.

Sudan is no stranger to unrest. After 30 years in power, President Omar al-Bashir has collapsed from the army's pimp in 2019, which has preceded massive popular protests. During his rule, South Sudan has been split from the north, while the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for alleged war crimes in Darfur. After Bashir's fall, Sudan was led by an alliance of military and civilian groups that ended in 2021 when it was disbanded by the armed forces.

Where or when the current fighting ends is not clear. Both sides claim to have control over key countries. Various official and unofficial estimates indicate that the Sudanese armed forces have as many as 220 thousand members. Fast support forces are believed to number some 70,000, but they are better trained and better equipped.

Being one of the largest countries on the African continent, Sudan includes 1.9 million square miles [1.9 million sq km] of territory and has predominantly Muslim populations. It is also one of the poorest countries in the world, with an average annual income of $750 per capita. The current crisis has affected food, water, and electricity supplies. /rel