recognitions hostage to relations with Serbia

When Kosovo declared independence on February 17th 2008, then president of the United States George Bush said history would show that this is the right thing for peace in the Balkans.

“In its declaration of independence, Kosovo committed itself to the highest standards of democracy, including freedom, tolerance and justice for citizens of all ethnic affiliations. These are principles that honor human dignity, are values America looks for in a friend, and we will soon establish full diplomatic relations with the new state of Kosovo”, Bush said.

The US recognised Kosovo's independence the day after its proclamation. That same day, the newest state was also recognised by Albania, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Afghanistan and so on.

Today, the list of recognitions, published by the Kosovo Foreign Ministry, numbers 117 countries. Nearly half of them were secured in the year of their declaration of independence in 2008. The pace then began to slow, despite the fact that the International Court of Justice found in 2010 that Kosovo's “independence does not violate international law”.

Its advisory opinion was the response to Serbia's claims that Kosovo's independence represents “flagrant violation” of its territorial integrity. But Serbia, in fact, lost management of the former province since 1999, when NATO bombings ended its war in Kosovo.

Kosovo came under UN administration and nearly a decade later with support from the United States and most European states declared independence.

The “Deputies of the Kosovo Assembly today, on February 17th, 2008, expressed their will and, through them, the will of Kosovo's citizens for Kosovo's independent, sovereign and democratic state”, said then Kosovo Assembly Speaker Jakup Krasniqi.

Fifteen years later, Serbia does not recognise Kosovo's independence, and relations between the two countries remain tense. That fact, according to some international relations experts, leaves Kosovo at a deadlock outside important international organisations and without greater recognition.

“Since Kosovo- Serbia has changed nothing now for 15 years, states that have been undecided [for Kosovo's independence], have had no reason to change its” position, Free Europe Free Radio Programme, by the Association for International Czech Affairs, says.

The last recognition Kosovo received was two years ago from Israel. Before that, for nearly three years, Kosovo was recognised by no country. The recognition dynamic actually slowed down in 2015. Cermak says this dynamic has been expected. Part of the blame for this, he also blames the Kosovo authorities for failing to implement the Brussels Agreement for normalising relations with Serbia, namely, the part for forming the Association of Serb majority municipalities.

This, according to him, has particularly discouraged the five non-recognitional EU countries Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus, which do not want such states in their ranks. Cermak says it is important that Kosovo make compromises for normalising relations with Serbia, and vice versa.

If there is no agreement between Pristina and Belgrade, this would have implications for non-recognitional EU states. And this is very important for Kosovo, because Kosovo has declared European integration and Euro-Atlantic integration as the main objectives of foreign policy. They cannot be achieved without the recognition of five EU member states. Here I see the greatest danger from failing the Kosovo road to the EU will be blocked for years”, Cermak says.

Similar stances include Stefan Lehne, former representative of the European Union, in negotiations on Kosovo's status.

I think that, basically, there are three motives for not recognising Kosovo. The first includes countries that are generally sceptical of Western initiatives. I would mention China, India, South Africa... Then there are countries that have a special friendship with Serbia. This is clearly Russia. Maybe even Greece. And countries that have problems with minorities themselves, unresolved status issues, have domestic political reasons. I mean Spain, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia... So there's a mix of motives. And I have doubts, that if Serbia does not clearly recognise Kosovo's independence, these countries that have major internal problems, such as Spain, Cyprus, will do the same”, Lehne says of Expose.

A different approach is Leon Hartwell, senior associate at London School of Economics and Political Science, as well as at the Centre for European Policy Analysis. Speaking to Exposene, he says the international community's recent efforts to normalise relations between Kosovo and Serbia have not yielded results. According to him, it is time to think of alternatives, which would bring recognition to Kosovo and capitalise on it with Euro-Atlantic structures.

It is important that the five countries that have not recognised Kosovo recognise it. It is important that Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and Greece be brought aboard. This, I think, would offer Kosovo opportunities to join the EU and NATO. This, then, would solve the problem of uncertainty between Belgrade and Pristina, whether Serbia would recognise Kosovo”, Hartwell says.

In the past five years, Serbia has even campaigned for Kosovo's recognition. And Lehne is convinced that this has influenced the pace of recognition to slow down.

“I think Serbia has made a very active campaign for Kosovo's recognition and has had a limited success. Serbia believes that around 84 countries recognise Kosovo, while Kosovo's Foreign Ministry says there are 117 countries”, Lehne says.

The Kosovo Foreign Ministry has not confirmed any recognition. Hartwell says Kosovo doesn't have any risk of it, even if it happened. According to him, the consequences are only symbolic.

There are about 200 countries in the world. The consequences of attracting recognition depend on the coming states. Serbia claims Somalia, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Esvatini, Libya, Guinea, Antigua and Barbuda, San Lucia and Maldives have withdrawn their support for Kosovo. I don't think these countries have considerable economic or political weight in relation to Kosovo. Therefore, Serbia's claims that they have drawn recognition are insignificant. The influence in Kosovo is more symbolic than significant”, Hartwell says.

Kosovo's political leaders also say that quality is more important than quantity. Among the countries that recognise Kosovo are 22 of the 27 EU member states and 26 of the 30 NATO member states. Large players, including the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia, have also recognised the now 15-year-old state. The Kosovo Foreign Ministry does not elaborate whether they are lobbiing for any new recognition or not, but one thing is certain of non-recognition, one way or another, hinders Kosovo from free movement to membership in various international organisations.

A research published by the Kosovar Institute for Research and Development of KIPRED in 2021 found that Russia, through statements, press conferences and various articles, is campaigning aggressively against Kosovo. According to the KIPRED, Russia constantly tries to damage the foundations of Kosovo's citizenship, aiming to downplay Western engagement in Kosovo.

Russia, one of Serbia's biggest supporters in the international arena and rightly veto the Security Council, hinders Kosovo's membership in the United Nations as well. Kosovo is not yet a member of the European Union, the World Trade Organisation, the International Organisation of Criminal Police and others.

But during the 15 years of independence, it has managed to membership in several international organisations among them: The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Olympic Committee, the European Football Federation and the World Football Federation.

The US, with the support of which Kosovo declared independence in 2008, says Kosovo, as well as Serbia, should make the <x0-kompromids difficult to normalise relations. Talks between them, according to Washington, must end with mutual recognition, which will pave new ways for both Pristina and Belgrade. / REL