Petritsch: Kosovo makes proposals based on draft internationals to 2025 can move closer to normalisation

He has called for progress in the dialogue process, with the argument that any procrastination of the process risks worsening the situation.

Mr Petritsch, Kosovo leaders have said this year has been the most challenging in terms of security since independence, taking the cause of the attack on Kosovo Police in Banjska. How would you describe it?

Wolfgang Petritsch: This has, of course, been a low point in relations between Belgrade and Pristina. And I'm not just talking about dialogue, which, unfortunately, the year 2023 wasn't the most successful. I think the incident in Banjska will focus attention on security and military aspects in the coming year, when it comes to relations between both sides.

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani often highlights the risk of, as she says, Serbia's “attack on Kosovo”, citing the incident in Banjska as reference. Is there such a danger?

Wolfgang Petritsch: We are relieved that the situation has not escalated, although there has been potential. However, this shows us that there is great danger that long and ongoing talks between Belgrade and Pristina, which are eased by the European Union, will not continue, or have the importance they had in the past. In this respect, the year 2023 was truly crucial. I believe that if the year 2024 is not used to encourage the EU and Belgrade and Pristina, to think seriously about a new approach, then I'm not sure if in 2025, after next year's elections have ended.

Then, in 2025, when we have the new Commission in Brussels and when we have the new administration in Washington I hope there will be continued [President Joe's] administration. Benden then will be the new moment to resume dialogue.

But all of this must be based on the experience of the last ten, or more years, and consider the measures that have been taken in past incidents, it needs to review the methodology of the mediation process. I believe we cannot see the dialogue isolated from membership negotiations, especially Serbia's EU membership talks.

I think more needs to be done for Kosovo and its population, to see membership in the European Union more closely, which of course will take years, but the process of membership of six Western Balkan countries must be combined with dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. That should be clearer.

To motivate negotiations on both sides, governments of both must more seriously address the process, and not sink into conflicts, which are neither in the interest of Serbia nor Kosovo. We need to think more extensively. I believe the problem lies in the fact that the global situation has changed dramatically, and suddenly there is less attention in the small and ongoing conflicts, like those between Kosovo and Serbia. I'm referring to major conflicts like Russia's war in Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. These are major points of conflict in 2024.

Why did you say you hoped there would be continued Biden administration in the United States after the elections? Do you believe it is more favourable for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?

Wolfgang Petritsch: Yes, I think the Biden administration and President Beden's team are more interested in constructive solutions. We have seen in the past the administration of [Donadal] Trump, Mr. [Richard] Grenelli, taking action that simply did not interest the right resolution of the conflict.

The international community, especially the European Union, must have this kind of freedom to find European solutions to the conflict. I said earlier that the entire region's membership process should be seen, the security of the entire Western Balkans should be analysed as a whole. The important part is that both Serbia and Kosovo want to join the European Union. Therefore, only one European solution is feasible.

This solution would then end two major historical conflicts dating back to the former Yugoslavia's fall. This is possible. I think the Kosovo issue is easier than Bosnia and Herzegovina's, because the population is divided, there are majority and minority populations in northern Kosovo. Therefore, the solution is easier than the triangle that exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, among the three ethnic communities, and the situation is more difficult and complex to find solutions.

Another thing to say is that a better solution must be found for Kosovo than that of 1995 for Bosnia. It has to be better, more fair, and the governing system really needs to be thought of.

We definitely do not want a Republika Srpska in Kosovo, and this model has been excluded from the international community. The same mistake in Kosovo should not be repeated. A more fair solution for the Serb minority must be found. This is in Pristina's great interest, so one should not prevent a success, being very tough with things that should be more flexible in this eventual normalisation treaty.

When we talk about minorities in Kosovo. The topic of forming the Association of Serb majority municipalities has been discussed year after year. Kosovo is entering the year when its formation is expected. Do you believe it will happen?

Wolfgang Petritsch: I think that in 2024 there won't be much progress in terms of completing the steps that need to be taken. With elections in the European Union and the United States, in 2024, political pressure from Washington and Brussels will not materialise towards a solution.

There's two things to focus on. Security is in first place for 2024, there must be reinforcements of international forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina ( EUFOR and Kosovo ( KFOR, and those missions ensure that incidents like the one in Banjska, or any other armed incident, are not carried out. There should be a lot of security attention.

Second, 2024 should be used because of the US and EU leadership vacuum to work more on the proposals. You mentioned Association, I think it's in Pristina's great interest to come up with a fair proposal. This is important. Clearly, Belgrade requires as much for its minority, minorities always want more autonomy. But there has to be a solution that is fair to minorityity on the one hand, and that does not destroy the functional system in Kosovo on the other.

I'm telling you one thing, which is important, why are there now more incidents compared to the past? Because there is no long-term solution, over 10 years. Signing the Brussels Association Agreement is a work done. The more there is no constructive response, the worse it will get, and that's not something we want. Because we have enough problems in Europe and neighboring countries. Middle East and neighboring countries. We have neighboring Ukraine. Consider how close they are to Europe. If viewed on a global scale, we have these conflicts at home.

Therefore, I believe more active initiatives must be undertaken. It is important that Pristina come up with proposals, nothing is more important than talking about the technical level. What we always talk about association is whether one should exist, but have we ever discussed details? What should the Association look like, what authority should it have?

They need to talk to the population. Has anyone talked to citizens in the north who are directly affected? Has anyone talked about how relations between Albanians and the minority living there will improve? The population there is not 100 percent with Serbs, there are Albanians there. Then how will their relationship work? We need to talk to people. This is the responsibility, especially of leadership in Pristina, to understand more about their needs. What ideas, to analyze them seriously. Then I think we can have a solution because an internal dialogue in Kosovo can produce more realistic results.

You say Kosovo should make its own proposals. The EU has said that Kosovo and Serbia have agreed in principle to the EU's proposal for formation of association. Have you had access to the draft status that was introduced to the parties?

Wolfgang Petritsch: I know basic stuff. What I said is that everything has to be done based on that draft.

So you say Kosovo should make its proposals based on the draft status proposed by the EU?

Wolfgang Petritsch: Yes, and have more specific, more concrete ideas. I don't think individuals in Brussels know much about what the local population needs. This is the key to the problem existing in the northern part of Kosovo. And the solution cannot be without an internal dialogue.

Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina is important, but since there is not expected to be many results in 2024 because of the elections, internal dialogue in Kosovo could influence that in 2025 the normalisation is moving closer.

Internal normalisation is the basis for normalising relations between the two states.

We mentioned that 2024 is an election year in the EU and the US. Does this mean that the train for Kosovo and Serina is leaving for progress? EU envoy for dialogue Miroslav Lajcak has said in an interview for a local media that Kosovo is wasting valuable time not moving forward.

Wolfgang Petritsch: Yeah, that's right. I would support Mr. Lajcak in this interpretation, because it must be understood that the problem exists within Kosovo. Unsolved issues between the Serb minority and the majority. Serbia here is outside. Of course, it has great political, economic, and financial influence. And this should be considered. However, Pristina must have more serious scope among Serbs. This is important. I know this is hard work. But politics is a difficult thing. I have also discussed [Kosovo Prime Minister Albin] Kurt on this subject, and he seems to understand the weight of the problem. That weight, however, becomes easier and easier by taking it step - by - step. The first step I propose is to make a lot of effort to create dialogue between communities in the north. This is the biggest obstacle. However, if there is success at this point, the route to association and normalisation of relations approaches.

Leaders in Kosovo often repeat that they want to speak with the Serb minority, who want to be closer to them, but do you believe more needs to be done?

Wolfgang Petritsch: Yeah. There's definitely more to do, though I know how hard this all is. You know from Bosnia, which after many years after the end of the war, there are still many political shortages. However, I know that at the local level, where the communities live together, much progress has been made between Serbs and Bosniaks, and between Serbs and Croats. The situation in Bosnia is even more complex and challenging than in Kosovo, because there are three entities.

And in Kosovo we do not talk about Serbs living in southern Kosovo. As far as I know, there is the idea that lives together, they have to work together, and this pragmatic view should exist in the northern part, there must be serious scope. Most have minority responsibility. The more the majority does, the less extreme is the minority, and the less there is room for external influence. This is also psychological, I believe, but it is a political principle to follow in Kosovo.

Do you have any steps the Government of Kosovo should take in this direction?

Wolfgang Petritsch: I'm not in the position of an advisor. But I know from other situations, we Austrians know the relationship between Vienna and Rome, how they solved the Southern Tirol case, the German - speaking part of northern Italy. There are differences there too, but it has been acknowledged that two different populations live there, but in a political and economic sense, they have achieved great success. The German - speaking part of that section is the richest in Italy. This is the success of mediation between Vienna and Rome. Then there was no EU in today's format, but the United Nations has provided considerable help. So there are ways, but it is up to each politician to identify the best ones that improve the everyday lives of the residents. Politics should be more interested here, because people live in their environments, they don't live in Europe, they live in their villages, in their towns, and there are problems.

One should think about how to solve a conflict by changing the perspective. I know it's easier for me to talk from the outside, but that's probably advice, step back, analyze situations, and maybe there's new ideas. Much of the problem I believe is solved in the communities of those residents, asking them. There are several ways. Academyists can offer help, and 2024 can be used to prepare for better dialogue.

I'm asking you again, have you had access to the proposed draft state of Association? How do you see it? Is that a good draft?

Wolfgang Petritsch: I think it's a big draft, that's a good draft. The authors of this draft appear to have seen broader conflict and a language that will probably be refined, but it is in Pristina's interest, because it is its territory to implement, if implemented. We do not want an dysfunctional Kosovo, we do not want this conflict to last forever.

See the Middle East, where, in 1948, the Palestinian issue is unresolved. The Palestinians made many mistakes. They're not innocent. Israel, on the other hand, has also made many mistakes. And this should serve as a warning sign that the longer conflict lasts, the deeper it becomes, and now when the Middle East is analyzed, no one can come up with a quick solution, and it will have to, unfortunately, a much longer time.

We'll go to another topic. The EU has imposed several punitive measures on Kosovo, following incidents that took place in May in northern Kosovo. Do you believe they have to be removed?

Wolfgang Petritsch: It's a two-way street. I am in favour of removing them, but Pristina must give signals that it is doing something that will improve the situation in dialogue, and offer some proposals. Tensions are high and if the parties don't talk to each other, tensions will continue to be high and will deepen in populations and politics. So you have to walk in this direction, send out signals of goodwill. I believe this will be interpreted as something positive in Brussels, and in exchange, the EU will remove the measures.

There are critical voices in Kosovo that Serbia should also be sanctioned by the US and the EU, after what happened in Banjska.

Wolfgang Petritsch: Sanctions, both towards Belgrade and Pristina, are not my favourite political measure. I prefer the political road, dialogue, negotiations, good will, believing that the other side has good intentions, how to achieve a victory for the two sides. And that victory is political. As long as conflict exists, all other aspects will not be priority. Kosovo, Serbia and the region are economically underdeveloped and therefore people are leaving their homes, going to Vienna, Germany or other countries because they see no development. This aspect should be treated with great seriousness, and it should be a basis for concern about the welfare of people. Economic opportunities come in, better education.

As far as investments are concerned, today is not important if you have factories at the time of digitization. I have proposed to the European Union several times to create opportunities for people in the region to work in the information technology sector. It's something that can be done very easily, but as long as there are tensions, investors hesitate. So, the European Union needs to offer assistance, but it cannot make a lot of investments in a region where a military conflict is possible.

You're mentioning military conflict. The European Union has recently joined the concerns of Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky, which Russia could spur conflict in the Western Balkans. How can something like that be avoided?

Wolfgang Petritsch: Kosovo is probably the most pro-European country in the region. So I see little danger to him from Russia, although, of course, hostile elements are possible. As long as there is the possibility of an outbreak of a conflict, Russia will benefit from it. But I think Russia is very focused on its problems in Ukraine. I would not overestimate Russia's influence in the Western Balkans. We know that relations between Belgrade and Moscow are close, more than with any country in the region, at least publicly. Even [RS president Milorad] Dodik is a good friend of [Russian president Vladimir] Putin. However, the latter is a separate problem that can easily be managed because it is small. But yes, Moscow is interested in the ongoing conflict, and in this respect neither Pristina nor Belgrade are helping the dialogue process.

Again, the solution needs to be initiated by Pristina, having extension, addressing the human factor on this subject. It's about building trust. There may be attempts by Belgrade to prevent the process, but such a step by Pristina will be supported by the European Union and the Americans.

You mentioned that there is little Russian influence in Kosovo. But this year, NATO has increased the number of troops in its KFOR mission. Do you believe this growth is key to preventing any conflict?

Wolfgang Petritsch: Of course, security is very important in 2024. If we've learned a lesson from Banjska, we need to be very vigilant about security. As long as relations between Pristina and Belgrade are unregulated, as long as there is no transparency when it comes to Belgrade's economic support in northern Kosovo, then Pristina has the potential for great victory through dialogue, association, to seek transparency, control, because otherwise it doesn't work. Everything has to be transparent, that's in the interest of the central rifle. It's also in the interest of the local population, because they don't even know where all the money Belgrade shares goes. I doubt they go to everyone, and this is something that can be fixed, there can be transparency and accountability.

What should Kosovo have priority in 2024?

Wolfgang Petritsch: The security situation will be important. On occasion, there has been obedience in Brussels, in Berlin or Washington that the Government in Pristina is not doing what needs to be done. This is about local elections [in the north], which in my opinion have not been a good idea. To regulate local administration, the mayors are a very important part of the process and that is the subject that will receive much attention. Pristina should focus on this point, but also on this interethnic scope. I know it's hard, Serbs will probably not welcome him, but this level of distrust must be overcome. Kosovo must do beyond what is expected of it and demonstrate that it can start this dialogue at the community level

Citing local elections. Do you believe the administrative instruction issued by the Government of Kosovo to replace the mayors is the right way for this process?

Wolfgang Petritsch: I don't know all the details. But the principle to be followed by each government in Pristina is that what it does and decides is accepted by the Serb population. If there are right proposals, they will be implemented. If considered unfair, it would be harder. It is always a good idea to consult Brussels and Washington, both have good ambassadors there to find solutions how Serbs can live together with Albanians. The government has to do everything to improve the situation. Because, in the end, it is important for Kosovo. For her citizenship, for her sovereignty. The sooner this issue is resolved, the sooner Kosovo will move towards European institutions.