Research predicting Russia's failure to fight Ukraine

Nearly half of key foreign policy experts believe Russia will fail as a state or will be disbanded by 2033, while a large majority expects China to try to take Taiwan by force, according to a new Atlantic Council survey suggesting a decade of global unrest.

46% of 167 experts said Russia's failure or breakup could occur within the next 10 years. 40% named Russia as a country that is expected to be disbanded for reasons such as “revolution, civil war or political breakup” over that period.

“Ukraina clearly highlights the potential for internal problems for Russia and the potential for war itself to have an opposite effect not only for its leadership, but for the country as a whole,” said Peter Engelke, deputy director of the Atlantic Council, who helped draft and interpret research.

Western officials say Russia has been significantly weakened since its invasion to Ukraine 11 months ago, including sanctions and export controls. Economists believe Russia's production capacity is steadily deteriorating as a result of sanctions, pushing the country back decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to acknowledge publicly that Moscow is facing obstacles in Ukraine and that the conflict will last too long. The US and its Western allies have pledged to support Ukraine as long as necessary, with all parties planning to continue the war for years, abcnews.al reports.

Although Europe has been experiencing its biggest land conflict since World War II, most experts surveyed said they believe Russia and NATO will not be involved in direct military conflict in the next decade.

But supporting increasingly ominous warnings from American officials that China will launch a military offensive to retake Taiwan, 70% of respondents predicted Beijing would do so within the next 10 years.

American military commanders have pointed to the 100th anniversary of the founding of China's Liberation People's Army in 2027 as a possible date of conquest. But some officials have added their warnings about Beijing's goals over the past year and have said the invasion is likely before 2024.

US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said Washington would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack, even though the US has repeatedly avoided specifying what it would do to prevent both sides from acting, the FT points out.

Almost 90% of respondents believe at least another country will increase nuclear weapons production by 2033. 68% of them said Iran would be more likely for nuclear weapons, while prospects for the revival of a nuclear agreement between the six world powers and Iran have become increasingly dim.

However, presenting some optimism, 58% of experts said they believe nuclear weapons will remain unusable in the next 10 years. Foreign policy experts also predicted a drop in American weapons.

While 71% of respondents predicted the US would still be the dominant military power in the world by 2033, only 31% believe the US will be diplomatic power number one and 33% the dominant economic power.