Year of Kosovo dialogue dynamism- Serbia

In an article published by the American daily Politico on December 29, 2022, the EU's envoy for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, in the context of the March 2023 reference as the deadline for reaching an agreement, has said the March deadline is intended to convey the seriousness of reaching an agreement and that the current time is ideal for a solution to the Kosovo-Serbia issue.

In this regard, he has highlighted the attention of the US and EU leadership, saying that “this is the real window of opportunity, sometime until December 2023 or early 2024”, the REL writes.

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The chairman of the Kosovo Parliament's Foreign Affairs Commission, simultaneously deputy of the ruling Vetevendosje Movement, Hakki Abazi, says there have been some developments during 2022 warning that in 2023 there will be increased dynamics in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

According to him, developments following Ukraine's Russian occupation, February 24, 2022, Western efforts to block Russian influence in the Western Balkans, assistance offered to Lajcak's team by Germany's two Chancellor Olaf Sholz, and France's President Emmanuel Macron, Jenns Plettner and Emmanuel Beaune, as well as the so-called Franco-German plan, are indicator of the West's insistence on reaching a possible agreement between Serbia and Kosovo.

If it is taken seriously and continues with this dynamic, I believe that in 1923, if not the conclusion of the general recognition agreement, then at least the Franco-German framework will produce results, which bring very close to the de jure recognition of the state of Kosovo and the walk towards the European integration of Kosovo, Serbia, but other countries of the region”, Abazi tells Radio Free Europe.

However, according to him, everything in the Western Balkans will depend on the dynamics of developments in Ukraine and on the seriousness with which the EU and the US will stay behind Ukraine until victory, as well as prevent the duration of the conflict in the Balkans, which, according to him, is Russia's strategy.

The EU proposal, also known as the Franco-German plan, envisions equal rights for Kosovo and Serbia, respect for territorial integrity, invisibility of borders, recognition of state symbols and a special arrangement for the Serb community in Kosovo.

But, in the text of the proposal, mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia is not mentioned.

The proposal was supported by the United States of America.

“The time has come for final agreement”

Opposition parties in Kosovo have expressed their support for the Government of Kosovo for dialogue with Serbia.

Raspi Qalaj, Kosovo Parliament deputy from the biggest opposition subject, the Democratic Party of Kosovo, says increased and serious tensions in the second half of 2022 in northern Kosovo signal the unstable situation, which requires solutions through dialogue.

I think it's time for the dialogue to be oriented towards reaching the final agreement, which will likely develop very intensively in 2023. I hope the dialogue will be closed within this year, taking into account not only the developments of us and the region, but also the world. I believe that the European Union, strongly assisted by the United States, will try to make Kosovo's problem and its final agreement with Serbia -- to carry out it during 2023x1>, says Qalaj.

However, he adds, the final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia would have no meaning without mutual recognition, which is the condition of his party to give support to the Government of Kosovo for dialogue.

Weber: No atmosphere for agreement

Recent developments in northern Kosovo, blocking roads with barricades there by Serb groups, as well as tensions that have conveyed Kosovo- Serbia during December 2022 does not give much hope that there is an atmosphere for establishing dialogue on rails leading to an agreement between the two countries, says Bodo Weber, senior associate of the Council for Democracy Policy in Berlin.

He points out that he is skeptical that within 2023 an eventual agreement can be reached, as he calls it “between” based on the Franco-German plan, while the current atmosphere is, as he describes it, “very hot”, as a result of tensions in northern Kosovo.

There is always the danger of an incident in such a hot atmosphere that could then escalate things. I have to say that if an agreement is expected as it is now known, as an intermediate agreement, leading to the final one going far, until the recognition of Kosovo's independence from Belgrade then, according to me it would require a completely different preparation of the terrain in Serbia. If we compare it to today's atmosphere and official narrator, then we see exactly the opposite”, says Weber.

Deal (without) complete?

Kosovo Prime Minister Alkbin Kurti, since the end of 2021, has said that an agreement with Serbia is possible within his mandate as prime minister, which coincides with the deadline of the current mandate of US President Joe Biden, and the mandate of European Commission Deputy Chairman Josep Borrell.

MP Abazi says that if a solution is not found in 2023 under the framework of the EU proposal, known as the Franco-German proposal, then Western partners' attention will be reduced.

I think that, in that case, we go towards a situation with possible scenarios, in which not only Kosovo, but also Bosnia and Herzegovina and other conflicts that are open or frozen around the world, to have completely different treatment and eventually to be discussed at the negotiating table, which, I think, will happen between the democratic world and Russia”,Aazi points out.

An eventual agreement negotiated on the basis of the EU proposal, according to Rashit Qalajt, would not be a good solution, though within this proposal there are many points the Democratic Party of Kosovo supports.

Even if Kosovo becomes part of international mechanisms, so even if it wins the seat in the United Nations, even if it becomes part of the Partnership for Peace with NATO, even if it starts procedures for EU membership, it would still be an incomplete agreement without mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia”, says Qalaj.

“Requesting a final”

To an eventual agreement on the basis of the Franco-German proposal, the skeptic also expresses Bodo Weber. He says the eventual effort to reach an agreement that does not include mutual recognition of Kosovo-Serbia does not completely solve the problem between the two countries.

On one hand, according to him, the pending remaining mutual recognition could fuel distrust in Pristina, which the generation has been compromised by the EU and US since 2017 over the attempt to support a territorial exchange agreement between Kosovo and Serbia.

He suggests that the West should take advantage of moments expected to be created in 2023 in the geopolitical context.
The war in Ukraine is definitely not going towards Russia's targets and goals. It is not ruled out that Russia could lose the war, with serious weakening of [Russian president Vladimir] Russia. Putin. We can have a scenario in which, practically, with the loss of Putin's Russia, the West would be a much stronger position in front of Serbia, against the regime of [Serbian president Aleksandar] Vuciki and perhaps that would be a much better basis to go, not towards an intermediate agreement, but to seek a final agreement”, says Weber.

Kosovo and Serbia have started negotiations on normalising relations since 2011, with EU mediation. The expectations are for negotiations to end with a legally binding agreement. But, both sides -- Kosovo and Serbia -- have completely extreme positions.

Kosovo has declared independence in 2008, which Serbia does not accept.

Kosovo seeks mutual recognition, meanwhile, Serbia seeks compromise solutions without specifying what exactly that compromise means.