Bugayski: Vuciq, Putin playing with Kosovo's new crisis card in Balkans

American analyst Janusz Bugajski, senior associate at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, says Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq and Russian President Vladmir Putin are playing with the Kosovo Charter to collect nationalists and create disagreements. “Belgrade and Moscow are counting on escalation of the conflict in northern Kosovo to prevent Western officials from making any tough decisions on mutual recognition due to fears of violence”, he says.

Bugajski warns that “has been set for new crises in the Western Balkans, which can turn into violent”.

It estimates that the combination of the European Union's inadequacy, American lack of attention and growing local tensions have empowered Serbia's nationalist “government to escalate its claims to neighbouring territories”.

In its latest monthly convoy for Sarajevo portal Istraga.ba, Buganjski says the region is full of unresolved disputes offering Moscow a treasure of opportunities even while it is losing the war in Ukraine.

“Kremlin views the Balkans as a strategic asset where it can undermine the role of Western institutions and pretend NATO has failed to ensure stability”, Bugajski points out.

Putin's top <x0). Moscow is helping Belgrade build a Serbian robot, under which all Serbs must live in an enlarged state.

In exchange, he says, Serbia allows Russia to expand its regional expansion through energy deals, intelligence penetration, military co-operation and dezinformation.

Buganjski says Belgrade recently signed a new gas supply contract with Russia's Gazprom and is recasting the television propaganda channels of the RT and Sputnik, despite their ban across Europe.

According to him, Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin's recent visit to Moscow noted Belgrade's strong support for Russian imperialism in exchange for the Kremlin's assistance to “grir” Kosovo and to protect Serbia in the event of a direct confrontation with NATO.

While Serbian media are launching continued dezinforms against Kosovo, Vuciq is recycling the excuses that led to war and genocide in the years of BAR90s when he was Milosevic's intelligence minister. The notion that Serbs are being persecuted in Kosovo should also reflect Russia's fabricated claims against Ukraine”, Buganjski says.

He further says EU-mediated negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina can register some agreements, as in the latest agreement on freedom of movement, but without a specific deadline for interstate recognition, they will continue indefinitely.

Vuciq and Putin, Bugajski points out, are playing with Kosovo's charter to gather nationalists and create disagreements.

“Belgrade and Moscow are counting on the escalation of the conflict in northern Kosovo to prevent Western officials from making any tough decision on mutual recognition due to fears of violence”.

He says Moscow also co-operates closely with the head of the Serbian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, whose ambition is to separate Bosnia and establish another Serbian state.

According to Bugajski, Moscow offers Dodik various forms of economic, military and propaganda assistance.

“The EU's half sanctions failed to deter Dodik, while Croatian nationalist ambitions to create a third ethnic entity in Bosnia also helped him and his clients in Moscow”.

He also says that “paradoxically, moves to undermine Bosniak integrity were also helped by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), whose officials apparently do not understand that consolidating ethnic checks in Bosnia through unilateral elections is a recipe for armed conflict”.

“Montenegro is destabilised even by the attack on its independent institutions by Serbian nationalist parties that are closely linked to the Russian regime”, the American expert and good expert on the situation in the Balkans notes.

According to him, this included the latest demands for Serbian autonomy in several southern municipalities.

“Unfortunately, the belief of Western governments that alleged anti-corruption activists will be effective leaders has failed. The short life of Dritan Abazovic's government is not surprising in view of its willingness to undermine Montenegrin sovereignty by signing privileged agreements with the Serbian Orthodox Church -- an organisation that does not recognise Montenegrin citizenship” -- transmits Telegrafi.

Moreover, claims that the government has fought against corruption are exhausted and hypocritical when its closest allies are party and religious leaders who were corrupted by Moscow and in co-operation with Serbian officials”, Bugajski says.

American analyst estimates that “an investigation into the illegal Russian ties of any major political player would be a valid cause for Montenegrin journalists and non-governmental organisations, as well as for all other Balkan countries”.

According to him, Albania will be able to enter into regional conflict by Russian subversion.

The latest default on Albanian military objects and attacks on three of its soldiers is a clear provocation to trouble the country and create new problems for NATO. The attack on the [military] basis was aimed at provoking conflicts between authorities and opposition and turning the attention away from the irredentist Serbian campaigns”.

Buganjski estimates that Serbia's “support for the Open Balkans Initiative, a geostrategic project designed to boost Serbia's regional role and Moscow's economic insight, will not ensure Albania's immunity from the” conflict.

According to him, the claims of some EU leaders for Europe's <x0 strategic autonomy” sound absurd when they are unable to ensure security in a region that wants to be joined in the EU.

Buganjski says the European Union has stalled accession negotiations with northern Macedonia and Albania, while membership for Bosnia and Kosovo is a distant prospect.

“Stability in northern Macedonia has been undermined by EU member Bulgaria, whose government remains mired in unresolved historical disputes with Macedonia and is unconsciously helping Moscow further destabilise the region”.

Bugajski says the Biden administration is also allowing Russia to penetrate the region by acknowledging Vuciki's claims that he has pro-Western and does not want to distance his supporters by sanctioning Russia.

“la is worth remembering how Slobodan Milosevic initially deceived Washington when he said he was the guarantor of Yugoslavia's peace and integrity in the early 1990s. The balance time has passed either Serbia is a European country or is linked to imperial Russia, which seeks to dismantle the Western world”, Bugajski says.

To avoid a new fire, even Serbia's aggressive policy objectives” must be fully protected.

“Both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo need a path towards NATO membership, and pro-Western forces in Montenegro need stronger support that will remove pro-Moscow-led nationalists. Without a clear guide to ensure regional security, Washington and Brussels will find themselves trying to extinguish more fires instead of disarming firemen”, Bugajski concludes.