A rat with nuclear weapons in his hands

A mouse with nuclear weapons... that's why we shouldn't take Vladimir Putin as far away in a corner as he does anything to save his skin.

Vladimir Putin likes to tell an event about how if a child of a poor family from Leningrad, he killed and hunted rats in the base of the apartment in which they lived.

The application of the story is that the Russian president sees himself as a large mouse who will face any aggressor if he is trapped.

And for now he's putting himself in the corner. A rat with nuclear weapons that gives signs he wouldn't hesitate to use them.

This is the image that Western leaders and generals must have in their mind in the coming days.

The odds of a Armageddon (in the New Testament are known for fighting between good and evil, but other religions are also known as the last war in the world) of 0% have gone to between 4 and 5%, I believe. That figure may not seem too large, but it is very disturbing indeed.

Curdy

Emotional pressure is high. The amateur images from Ukraine, most of which were captured by civilian cameras, are terrifying.

Cities are being hit by volcanic bombings; children gathered in shelters; body bags pulled out of blocks of burned apartments; and soldiers dead on the corners of the streets. The scene that was not imagined in a European capital a few days ago is now a blood - sprinkled reality.

For people who see these and know that Western governments are holding back from the slaughter, it is deeply frustrating. Our natural human incentive is to help in whatever way we can.

But it's a terrible risk that by taking action to stop the massacre, we can actually make it even worse.

In a conference with journalists in Poland, a Ukrainian journalist urged Boris Johnson to call on NATO allies to declare air space zone around her country to stop Russian bombers from attacking the capital of Kiev, Harkiwi and other cities.

But if we look at this course of the event, RAF and NATO pilots would have to be prepared to bring down Russian planes.

It is quite possible that Putin would use this as an open war statement rather than a humanitarian intervention to protect innocent civilians. Sanctions are causing an internal crisis in Russia. He (Putin) must achieve the goals of war or face political and personal destruction, and Putin would label the non-flight zone a direct threat to it.

Ukrainians have courageously resisted much greater than the Kremlin generals and supporters have predicted.

Threat

This war has become a matter of life-a-death for Putin. If he falls violently from power, he will face trial and possible execution at his home, or war crimes charges at The Hague, for example, use of cluster bombs.

And he's not alone. He's surrounded by fierce men, men who have trampled on blood like their president.

Until the whole Russian government leaves a revolution of the people, with ordinary citizens facing police, bureaucratic and oligarchs, the only way Putin can leave within is through his generals.

It's not impossible.

But they would expect concessions from the West, including justification for war crimes and perhaps geopolitical benefits, such as recognition of parts of Ukraine, including Crime as part of Russia by the United Nations.

This is not a conflict with easy solutions.

Yes, sanctions are increasing pressure on Russia to back off. But not right away.

Cruelty

In the long term, this will lead to super high inflation, but it still needs time to knock and influence the standard of living.

The Russians are already suffering some of the consequences. Many learned this week that they cannot use smart phone applications to buy subway tickets and make other daily purchases.

And those who depend on their family's money across the ocean can't get their money.

In time, all of this will increase pressure on Putin at home, but not immediately.

For now, as much as the West feels provoked, we must avoid intense reactions. Voices in Ukraine say the Third World War has already begun, but we must not allow this to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The terrible reality is that even if we face the worst images from Kiev and other cruel scenes in Ukraine, the coldest reason is the only option.

Mark Almond is director of Oxford Institute for Crisis Research

(Article in Daily Mail, translated by Periscope)