When “breadport” is at war

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), foods at a global level are 20 percent more expensive than they were a year ago.

Coronervirus' uncertainty and disorders in the chain of supplies that have followed are seen as the main causes of growth.

On March 11, FAO has warned of further price increases of up to 20 percent as a result of the war in Ukraine.

FAO has said Ukraine will hardly be able to harvest wheat this season, while taking products from Russia has also become more difficult, as businesses do not want to risk falling against the sanctions this state has.

From these two countries, however, Russia and Ukraine provide nearly 30 percent of global grain supplies. And because of fear of shortages, many countries have already banned their exports, causing the prices of many products to jump significantly within days and some even to be sold in limited amounts.

The G7, or group of more industrialized states, has made efforts to ensure the world will do everything necessary to prevent the food crisis.

The G7 has called on countries to keep their food and agricultural markets open, not to risk, as it has said, low food security countries.

With another warning has come the International Monetary Fund, which has said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could plunge global food supplies into chaos.

According to the IMF, events since the invasion began show that the <x0 economy in Ukraine has dramatically changed”.

World Food Programme Director David Beasley has said that the longer peace is postponed, the more people will be without food.

There are only families in Ukraine affected by this war. Ukrainian farmers reap enough to feed their country and 400 million people worldwide. Now, the world will pay the price for increased food and fuel costs”, Beasley said in a Twitter post.

Reality: it's not only families in Ukraine imposed by this war. Ukrainian farmers spent enough to feed their country & 400M people globally. Now, the world will pay the price w/ Soaring food & fuel costs.

The Ranger we go without peace, the dangerous millions go without food. Pic.twitter. com/ Patching... BJ97 DgGZJ

Cindy McCain ( @ WFPChief) March 14, 2022

United Nations Secretary - General Antonio Guterres has said that the outbreak of war in Ukraine will affect the developing world most.

We have to do everything we can to avoid the hurricane of hunger and the merger of the global food system”, Guterres said.

Experts monitoring the supply chain say war and food are closely linked to each other, especially in the case of Ukraine.

Speaking of Radio Explosion Free Europe ProgrammeMichael Joseph Puma, of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, points out the reasons why:

“Russia and Ukraine are the main exporters of wheat. They are key to global markets. Together, there are about 28 percent of the global grain exports. They also have other important cultures. Ukraine is responsible for about 14% of global corn exports. Both Russia and Ukraine alike are responsible for 80% of sunflower oil exports. So from the prospect of exporting crops, Russia and Ukraine are of critical importance to global trade”.

Authorities in Ukraine have warned that if war does not stop quickly, supplies with major agrarian products may fall by 10 to 50 percent.

David Laborde, of the International Food Policy Research Institute, tells of Expose Which countries or regions can be most affected:

For countries in North Africa and the Middle East, [ports from Russia and Ukraine] are very, very important. They are the greatest concern. In Tunisia, Egypt, or Lebanon, these countries that are truly large consumers of wheat -- this product will be mostly affected”.

In Lebanon, for example, up to 90 percent of the imports of wheat and cooking oil are provided by Russia and Ukraine. Lebanese authorities say they have only one month's grain reserves.

According to experts, the alternative to supplies can be Latin American countries, such as Argentina or Brazil, then Australia, Canada or the European Union. But they warn that any deviation from the supply chain will come at higher cost.

Experts also express concern for countries not dependent on Russia or Ukraine for food supply. Problem for them, they say, will be getting in the garbage. This substance, which is essential to farmers, has been very expensive, as Russian exports have been banned. Russia, combined with Belarus, makes up 15 to 20 percent of the world's garbage market.

The world garbage market is important for every farmer. You know every farmer contributes to food. And [the garbage shortage] can significantly exacerbate the situation, affect global production. That's why people are worried. But, hopefully, the situation will be resolved as soon as possible”, Laborde says.

Puma, from Columbia University, says the world must prevent hunger from becoming weapons of war. A possible solution to the situation, according to him, could be to regulate energy prices. These awards have started to suffer increases since last year, and after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, record levels have reached.

As long as global energy prices remain high, they will pose a major threat to global food prices. We need some kind of coordination, or international effort, to bring international energy prices under control. Another possible solution is co-ordination between the main exporter countries and key production sites. I think there are two areas where they should focus: increase production levels and avoid export bans”, Puma says.

The World Food Programme, which operates under the UN umbrella, has said this month that the number of people on the verge of hunger has increased to 44 million out of 27 million in 2019. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tends to make the situation worse, this agency has said.

Special attention has been drawn to Yemen, where food uncertainty continues since 2014, when civil war broke out. / REL