Five Ways for War to Go to Ukraine in 2023

Russia's spring offensive will be key

Those who seek to invade another country everywhere through major Eurasian steppes are eventually doomed to winter in it.

Napoleon, Hitler, and Stalin all had to keep their armies moving in the face of a winter of steppes, and now his invasion is going back to earth, Vladimir Putin is digging his winter forces to host a new Russian offensive in the spring.

Both parties need a pause, but Ukrainians are more equipped and motivated to continue, and we can expect them to maintain the pressure, at least in Donbas.

About Cremina and Svakova they are very close to a major progress that would turn Russian forces 40 miles back into the next line of natural protection, near where their conquest began in February.

Kiev will hesitate to stop when the immediate price is so great. Ukrainian offensives, however, can be stopped in the southwest following the recovery of Kherson.

The crossing on the east side of the Dnipro River to pressure on Russia's endangered street and railway lines to Crime can be very demanding. But the possibility that Kiev begins a sudden new offensive can never be expelled.

“Ukraine wants to regain its land”

Ukraine will win by fully restoring its territorial integrity later until the spring of 2023. Two factors form that conclusion.

One is the motivation, determination, and courage of the Ukrainian Army and the Ukrainian nation as a whole, which is unprecedented in the modern history of war.

The other is that, after years of calming a Russian dictator, the West has finally grown to understand the size of the historical challenges it faces. This is well illustrated by a recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

The price we pay is on the money. And the price Ukrainians pay is in the blood. If authoritarian regimes see that the force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become a more dangerous world for all of us. “

There is no end to the horizon

Vladimir Putin expected the passive admission by Ukraine of its most powerful neighbour's actions, without the meaningful involvement of other countries. This gross miscalculation has led to a prolonged, seemingly endless conflict.

Winter will be difficult, as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will try to break the morale and stability of an already destroyed population. But Ukraine's sustainability has proved to be extraordinary. They will stand firm. The war will drag on. And so on.

The prospects for negotiations are grim. For a possible peace agreement, the fundamental requirements of at least one side must be changed. There is no evidence that this happened or that it will happen soon.

“No result other than Russian loss”

It's too early to plan a victory parade in Kiev, but the whole moment is with Ukraine now and I have no doubt in my mind that they will win this war, perhaps in 2023.

Things will take longer during the winter, but there is no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all winter equipment coming from Great Britain, Canada and Germany.

By January, Ukraine may be able to begin the final phase of the campaign, which is the release of Crime.

We know from history that war is proof of will and proof of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers and the rapid improvement of the logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no result but a Russian defeat.